Anti-Paul states

[Adele is pudgy!]

If Ron Paul competes against Obama, which states / regions will swing towards the Democratic pole? (Regardless of whether these states voted Democrat last time or will vote Republican next year, respectively.)

[Paul Kemp]

Most of them.

[Lambsbread]

Northeast - Lean D overall
Mideast - Lean R overall
Midwest - Tossup (Lean R)
Pacific - Solid D
South - Lean to Solid R

[Adele is pudgy!]

Northeast - Lean D overall

That's absolutely wrong. Look at the polls:
New Hampshire and Maine's 1st congressional district are gonna go to Ron Paul; he also has realistic chances of winning Connecticut. Even Massachusetts with all its high-level students will heavily swing red, while staying blue, of course.

South - Lean to Solid R

And that's exactly what I heavily doubt. the Southerners won't rejoice in voting for a libertarian. They either stay at home, which will result in turning their home states blue, or they predestine a contemporary version of George Wallace as their personal third-party candidate.

Mideast - Lean R overall

Hell yeah! Ahmadinedschad is gonna give his vote to Paul...

[Adam Griffin]

R > D: Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Mississippi, Georgia, South Carolina
D > R: LOL

There would be an underlying theme of low voter turnout for the Republican Party. Arizona and Georgia's rapidly-changing demographics coupled with this would allow a flip. North Dakota, South Dakota and Missouri's rational Republicans would flip. Mississippi and South Carolina are growing and diversifying as well and have significant AA populations that would combine with the low conservative turnout due to his lack of passion on their social issues.

420 - 118

[Badlands17]

Realistically, a major third-party candidate would emerge to collect the social conservative vote in an Obama v. Paul race. I don't see how the evangelical community would even hold their nose to vote for either of them. I'm not sure how great the swing would be, but it would not be in Paul's direction overall; trends would likely be distributed as follows:

Northeast: Trend R (ME/NH/VT might be one of the few regions of the country that would approach an R swing)
South: Trend D (only places trending to Paul might be parts of TX (in addition to Paul's congressional district) or FL, and a scattering of college towns)
Great Lakes: Trend D (IN and WI would probably be the most likely to trend R)
Plains: Trend R (Dakotas trend hardest R, Missouri might trend D)
West: Trend R (California and New Mexico might trend D, but that's the only two I can really see; ID/WY/MT would likely trend hardest R)

[bgwah]

Almost every state would swing D.

Which states would trend D, though? I don't know. Maybe the Midwest and Northeast.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think we would see Obama repeat and enhance his historically good performance in the Upper Midwest.

[Lambsbread]

Northeast - Lean D overall

That's absolutely wrong. Look at the polls:
New Hampshire and Maine's 1st congressional district are gonna go to Ron Paul; he also has realistic chances of winning Connecticut. Even Massachusetts with all its high-level students will heavily swing red, while staying blue, of course.

South - Lean to Solid R

And that's exactly what I heavily doubt. the Southerners won't rejoice in voting for a libertarian. They either stay at home, which will result in turning their home states blue, or they predestine a contemporary version of George Wallace as their personal third-party candidate.

Mideast - Lean R overall

Hell yeah! Ahmadinedschad is gonna give his vote to Paul...

The Northeast as a whole isn't going to go D solely because of NH and ME...? He has no chance of winning CT OR MA. We're talking the ENTIRE Northeast here. Ya know...PA, NJ, NY, VT, CT, MA, NH, ME, RI, DE, MD and DC...

Ron Paul polls very well with social Conservatives and a lot of Conservatives I know say that they'd vote for Ron Paul over Obama any day. Most Southerners will not allow Obama to get a second term by not voting.

You're not funny.

[Paul Kemp]

Go home.

[Zarn]

I think Democrats underestimate Paul, considering the polls.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Necrophilliac is the rarest kind-----A anti Paul troll. How many of those exist?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I think Democrats underestimate Paul, considering the polls.

When it comes to Paul, polls cease to matter apparently.

[TheGlobalizer]

I think Democrats underestimate Paul, considering the polls.

Not to mention that most of Paul's softness is on the right - all it would take is a come to Jesus moment in the GOP to make this a very ugly scenario for Obama.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I think Democrats underestimate Paul, considering the polls.

Not to mention that most of Paul's softness is on the right - all it would take is a come to Jesus moment in the GOP to make this a very ugly scenario for Obama.

Thats why you don't mess with Republicans named Ron who run for president.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I think Democrats underestimate Paul, considering the polls.

Not to mention that most of Paul's softness is on the right - all it would take is a come to Jesus moment in the GOP to make this a very ugly scenario for Obama.

I've said this many, many times before. The reason he isn't generally leading Obama compared to Romney is the "sour grapes" effect, similar to the mythical Hillary voters that would flip were Obama elected (And they never ended up sticking to that). Similarly, there are a group of Republicans that would rather Paul not win, and thus say "undecided" when the poll comes up, which appears to lower the bonus Paul gets with independents. However, I'll eat my own socks if a good 75% of those Republicans don't come out and vote for him on election day since most of them are the sort of "Party Line" Republicans that would vote for Mussolini so long as there was an R beside his name.

[Ebowed]

If Ron Paul competes against Obama, which states / regions will swing towards the Democratic pole? (Regardless of whether these states voted Democrat last time or will vote Republican next year, respectively.)

Suburbs will swing to the Democrats, and rural areas (especially economically depressed ones which voted Democratic until the last decade) will swing Republican.  Ron Paul's message of reduced government intervention in economic affairs will resonate heavily with areas that are collecting unemployment benefits, while Barack Obama's themes of protecting the middle class will cement his support among the increasingly government dependent inhabitants of the suburbs.  Densely populated cities will remain heavily Democratic.