Holden vs. Santorum

[J. J.]

Tim Holden (D-PA 17) is another centrist Democrat who could easily oust Santorum. He creamed Patern in the debates (Paterno did well too, Holden just has a very no-nonsense way of talking).

Any Democrat that can win in what should be a VERY safe Republican district is a go in my book against Santorum. A Democrat with support in the "T" could do just about anything in this state.

Not a fan of Holden, but I'd vote for him over Santorum without blinking.  Question now is PA 17 is gone for the Dems though and in a primary, I would vote Hoeffel, Hafer, or Casey over Holden just because Holden runs a greater risk than Casey.  I'm not as sure of Holden as I am Casey.  Holden will also have liberal turnout issues and is unknown in the SE.

Santorum does fairly good contistuency work, from what I've seen.  That is going to hurt and Dem's chances.

[J. J.]

You also have to remember that Santorum defeated an exceptionally liberal candidate, Harris Wofford, in 1994.

[J. J.]

You also have to remember that Santorum defeated an exceptionally liberal candidate, Harris Wofford, in 1994.

1994 is not a good year to use as an example since it was so strongly GOP.

Well, we don't have too many to go by.  Wofford, in terms of geography and ideology is the closest to Hoffel.  And Wofford was an incumbent, associated with national issues that were big in 1992 (Health Care).  Santorum was not a major figgure at the time.  

Santorum has a lot of appeal to the median PA voter.

[J. J.]

Where was Wofford from?

Montgomery County, outside of Phila.  That didn't help.

He beat Thornburgh, from Pittsburgh, however.

[J. J.]

Kanjorski would be elected if he died.  They love the pork he gets for Wilkes Barre.

The reason Hoeffel couldn't get Luzerne is the two Democratic County Commissioners are involved in a scandal where they paid I think, 15 million for a lease to a social services center, when they already had a suitable site to build it for 5 million.  the GOP commissioner is really hitting them over it.  Added to thatis a general distrust among many of the Democrats here after the pitifull mayor and commissioners they had before 2003.  All this results in an extremely inept Luzerne Couunty organization and added to that, the GOP group here is excellant. They have great organization and a good group of volunteers.

I'd really question how much a local scandal would affect a statewide race, unless it involved the statewide candidate.  It didn't with Preate.