2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[morgieb]

He's already declared he plans to run again.

So has Shelby though......

[Jerseyrules]

What happened to Linda Lingle ITTL?

[Miles]

What happened to Linda Lingle ITTL?

Nothing much...

I made Djou Governor though.

[Jerseyrules]

What happened to Linda Lingle ITTL?

Nothing much...

I made Djou Governor though.

I know (and I appreciate this), but did she even run for senate?

[Miles]

What happened to Linda Lingle ITTL?

Nothing much...

I made Djou Governor though.

I know (and I appreciate this), but did she even run for senate?

I don't think so.

Akaka was reelected in 2012 against Ed Case, who changed parties. If she ran now I still don't think she'd win; even at age 98, I think Inouye would still be unbeatable.

[Mister Mets]

Looking good.

I would expect Todd Rokita to run for an open Senate seat in Indiana though. He was elected in 2010 from a rather conservative district, after two terms as the Secretary of State. He seems like the type of guy the party would recruit.

[Jerseyrules]

What happened to Linda Lingle ITTL?

Nothing much...

I made Djou Governor though.

I know (and I appreciate this), but did she even run for senate?

I don't think so.

Akaka was reelected in 2012 against Ed Case, who changed parties. If she ran now I still don't think she'd win; even at age 98, I think Inouye would still be unbeatable.

Someone's gotta do it.

[Miles]

JINDAL HOLDS TENUOUS LEAD IN IOWA


_{Gov. Jindal campaigns with former Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Rep. Steve King hosts a townhall for Rep. Gohmert.}

PPP- With two weeks to go until the Iowa Caucus, out latest poll shows that Louisiana's Bobby Jindal has the edge going into the final stretch. Jindal gets 23% of the vote; 4% more than Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio is closely followed by Governor Jon Huntsman and Congressman Louie Gohmert, who poll at 18% and 17% respectively. Finally, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez rounds out the list at 14%.

Breaking down the poll's demographics, Jindal posts numbers at the top, or near the top, in most categories; this consistent performance is what he can attribute his overall lead to.

Jindal, Huntsman and Martinez are actually in a three-way tie at the top when it comes to the female vote. However, unfortunately for the latter two, women are only expect to make up, at most, 45% of the caucus vote. With men, the Louisiana Governor is up by a relatively comfortable 6 points; if any other candidate is going to pull and upset, they'll likely have to make significant inroads with males voters.

With actual Republican voters, Jindal's lead remains at 23%, but Rubio receives a slight bump up to 20% and Gohmert nears 20% as well. Independent voters, as expected, skew considerably towards Huntsman, which speaks to his greater electability in a general election. Conversely, less than 10% of Independents chose Gohmert. From an pollster's perspective, the GOP nominating Gohmert would be akin to handing Democrats the Presidency.

Looking along the ideological spectrum centrist voters love Huntsman; his 37% with them is 14% more than the next highest, Martinez. Again, sadly for them, moderate voters should not make up more than 20% of the electorate. Mildly conservative voters seem to the "Goldilocks" group; there numbers are the closest match to the overall toplines.  Finally, Gohmert and Jindal tie among the most conservative voters.

When we asked about three individual issues, we were surprised to find that Jindal did not lead in a single category. Huntsman is in a strong position with voters who emphasize job creation; this could be a result of the ads he has run highlighting the expansion of the Utah economy under his tenure. Jindal is a close second; under his Governorship, Louisiana consistently had a jobless rate under that of the nation as a whole. "Values voters" support Congressman Gohmert; this isn't surprising given that he has campaigned heavily in the socially conservative northwest portion of the state. Respondents who place Obamacare repeal on the top of their list narrowly favor Gohmert with 24%, though Rubio and Jindal are very close behind, at 23% and 21% respectively.

A strong majority of the Iowa GOP is Evangelical; this was likewise reflected in our poll. Evangelical voters are going for Gohmert, Jindal and Rubio, who are all within a point of each other with that demographic. Likewise, with the non-Evangelical group, its a close contest between Huntsman and Martinez.

We actually found that, despite standing in third place, Jon Huntsman is favored to carry the left-leaning 1st Congressional district. The 2nd district looks like its up for grabs and Governor Jindal is a modest favorite in the 3rd. What really stands out here is Gohmert's performance in the 4th. When we surveyed all GOP voters, 67% have a favorable opinion of Congressman Steve King to only 25% who don't. When King threw his weight behind Gohmert, that really boosted the Texas Congressman's chances in the 4th district. If Gohmert can expand his dominance in the 4th district to the neighboring 3rd, we could see an upset.

Finally, just for fun, we asked about the President's birthplace. 62% are either unsure where he was born or believe he was not born in America. With the 38% who do think the President was born in Hawaii, Huntsman leads the field with almost 40%. Not surprisingly, "birthers' flock to Gohmert; he is the only candidate with an outright majority of his supporters saying that the President is definitely not a US citizen.  Finally, voters that are unsure of the President's birthplace support Jindal.

[Jerseyrules]

Who's Gohmert again?

[Niemeyerite]

Who's Gohmert again?

A very, very conservative congressman from Texas.

[Miles]

Who's Gohmert again?

A very, very conservative congressman from Texas.

He was elected as a result of the Delaymander.

He's best known for making comments like this and this.

[Incipimus iterum]

lol

[Jerseyrules]

Who's Gohmert again?

A very, very conservative congressman from Texas.

He was elected as a result of the Delaymander.

He's best known for making comments like this and this.

So in the chocolate box of republican candidates, Gohmert is the chocolate with too many nuts, and a shot of bourbon inside.  Way too strong.

[Jerseyrules]

Keep it coming, please! 

[Miles]

Iowa D poll will be out tonight.

[Miles]

UGHH!!! I thought I saved the calculations for the other Iowa poll, but apparently, I didn't. The update will be pushed to tomorrow....sorry guys.

[Jerseyrules]

That sucks.  Looking forward to it

[Miles]

Just to keep everyone in suspense for a little while longer, here are the toplines and CD leaders:



Crosstabs will be out mid-day Sunday morning Monday.

[Jerseyrules]

Cool

[Miles]

_{Senators Udall and Warner, who are tied at the top of the field, talk with voters while Rep. Brad Miller is running as formidable campaign from the left.}

PPP- For our Democratic poll, we find that Senators Mark Udall and Mark Warner about tied at the top of the field with Congressman Brad Miller in third. An important note here is that neither Governor Cuomo nor Governor Patrick have invested much efforts in Iowa; they both seem to be eyeing the upcoming contests in Hew Hampshire and Florida instead. For now, the Democratic field in Iowa is just as fragmented as that of the GOPs, as no candidate can get even 25% support overall.

Our key finding in this poll is that Miller is establishing himself as a legitimate liberal alternative to the two frontrunners. A Miller upset would be dependent on two things: first, the Congressman is already popular with "very liberal" voters, as he gets 31% with that group; he would have to make inroads with voters who are closer to the middle of the spectrum. Next, turnout among younger voters would have to be relatively high; Miller's message of tighter Wall Street regulation and financial reform is resonating well with college students and younger, educated voters.

Warner's strength is derived from his popularity with centrist voters and older citizens. Among those voters who value job creation as their first priority, Warner is an easy favorite. Likewise, Independent voters hold him in the highest esteem. These two things should play well for his prospects in a general election.

Finally, like Governor Jindal in our GOP poll, Udall seems to be the best "all around" performer; he is at or near the top among most demographics that we surveyed for. It looks like he has the more rural 3rd and 4th districts locked down. To solidify his lead, Udall would need to focus more closely on the eastern duo of districts in these last few weeks.

[Niemeyerite]

Continue, please!

[Jerseyrules]

Continue, please!

[Miles]

I think, for simplicity's sake, I'll just skip right to election night in Iowa.

I'll work on the numbers/maps tonight and start tomorrow with results.

[Jerseyrules]

I think, for simplicity's sake, I'll just skip right to election night in Iowa.

I'll work on the numbers/maps tonight and start tomorrow with results.

Cool

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think, for simplicity's sake, I'll just skip right to election night in Iowa.

I'll work on the numbers/maps tonight and start tomorrow with results.

Cool