2014: Midterms, Presidential Contests and beyond

[Miles]

Okay guys, seeing as my old TL was dying a slow death, I decided that I'd start over new for the 2014 midterms.

This is basically an extension of 2011 and Beyond....

Enjoy!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Excited!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Why not keep it in one thread?

[Miles]

Why not keep it in one thread?

I just thought it was time for a change.

[Miles]

Rachel: Welcome yet again to election night here on MSNBC. I'm Rachel Maddow and joining me are my friends Chuck Todd and Chris Matthews here to analyze the results of Midterm Night 2014.  We hope you will stay with us here at at MSNBC as we try to make sense of these results. Now, lets check in with our electoral guru Chuck!

Chuck: Thank you Rachel. Thats right. The polls, debates and votes have all come down to this night. President Obama's approval is standing at about even, 49% approving with 48% disapproving according to Gallup, we will no doubt see some very competitive races tonight. In the Senate, Republicans are hoping to pick up the 4 seats they need to flip control of the chamber, whereas House Democrats are eyeing a comeback. We'll also have a slew of Governoers races to watch for.

Chris:And it looks like we have our first results now. From the Bluegrass state, this was for Mitch McConnell's seat. The Republican leader's seat will actually going to a Democrat. The very popular Secretary of State, Alison Lundergan Grimes will be defeating Agriculture Commissioner Ritchie Farmer. Kentucky has long been a Democratic state, but Republicans have lately had a solid hold on its Senate seats. Not tonight.

Chuck: And its also worth noting that Grimes will be Kentucky's first woman Senator. This puts Republicans one seat further in the hole. Now, they'll need a net gain of 5 seats.

Rachel: We do have good news for Republican though. Senator Susan Collins will be comfortably reelected. Despite the blue lean of Maine, Collins defeats former Governor John Baldacci. Collins is one of the few Republicans who have worked with the President on major policy initiatives; her independent legislative record keeps her popular at home.

Chris: And the Republicans have another with. Governor Paul LePage will be heading back to Augusta. For the second time, he benefits from a split field; his to major opponents were Rep. Chillie Pingree and Independent Eliot Culter. Despite his tea party endorsements, voters never saw LePage as extreme. Still, this was one of most competitive races in the country. Going into tonight, this three-way contest was anyone's guess. Still, the AP projects LePage will come out on top.

Chuck: In West Virginia, earlier this year, longtime Senator Jay Rockefeller announced his retirement. His seat will be filled by Carte Goodwin, who served as an interim Senator after the death of Bob Byrd. Goodwin won against conservative businessman Bill Maloney; Goodwin was an early favorite after receiving endorsements from West Virginia's all-Democratic Congressional delegation. Maloney tried to tie his opponent to the unpopular Obama, but it wasn't enough. Goodwin's open House seat was filled by Secretary of State Natalie Tennant.

[morgieb]

Yay it's back!

I still think that the Republicans can win back the Senate as 2008 was a really Democratic year, and Class II is a fairly Republican group.

Did LoBiondio, Bachus, Sessions, Roberts and Graham survive their primaries? And did anyone else (other than Durbin, Rockefeller, Levin, Merkley, McConnell, Alexander and Inhofe) retire?

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, this is back ^^!!! Obviously, southern democrats will have a great night (because the author loves dixies, as he's one of them hahaha).

[MRX]

Can't believe you brought LePage back for a second term. Can you alter it in favor of Pingree?

[Miles]

Did LoBiondio, Bachus, Sessions, Roberts and Graham survive their primaries? And did anyone else (other than Durbin, Rockefeller, Levin, Merkley, McConnell, Alexander and Inhofe) retire?

I'll cover that stuff as I roll out results

I did announce some retirements at the end of my old TL.

[RodPresident]

I'm crazy to see SC election night. Louisiana also, with Mme. Landrieu fighting for her seat (the only Southern seat in Democratic hands since Reconstruction). Senator Hagan fighting for re-election and Chambliss (may Cain-minus scandals have primaried him). A great election night...

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Will Landrieu be able to survive? She always seems to squeak by but I'm sure Obama's approvals are underwater in Louisiana.

[Niemeyerite]

Will Landrieu be able to survive? She always seems to squeak by but I'm sure Obama's approvals are underwater in Louisiana.

Yes, she will survive, for sure. Remember that Miles loves her

Update soon, please!!!

[morgieb]

My 'predictions'

Oregon: Merkley quitting makes it kinda competitive, but unless they run Smith, it'll probably remain in Democratic hands.

Montana: Leans Pickup. Baucus is very unpopular and Juneau is too liberal.

Wyoming: Safe, unless Enzi quits, where Frudenthal might run.

Idaho: Safe

Colorado: Udall's very visible - he should be fine.

New Mexico: Probable retention. Martinez or Wilson might make it kinda competitive, but maybe not.

Alaska: Tossup. Palin's very polarising, but Alaska is a very red state.

South Dakota: With Johnson running again, he should be favoured.

Nebraska: Safe

Kansas: Safe, unless Roberts loses his primary and Selebius runs.

Oklahoma: Semi-interesting, but it'll most likely remain in Republican hands.

Texas: Semi-interesting, but the Democrats need a really strong candidate.

Minnesota: Probably leans Democratic, but Pawlenty is probably more of a threat than Coleman.

Iowa: Safe unless the country turns sour, which it doesn't appear to be doing.

Illinois: Despite Durbin's retirement, I doubt they'll hand over both seats to the Republicans, plus they have a very strong candidate here.

Michigan: Toss-up. Republicans have a stronger bench here, but it also leans blue.

Arkansas: Leans Democratic, Pryor isn't an exceptionally strong candidate, but you let Lincoln pull off an upset (iirc?) and Pryor also has a famous last-name.

Louisiana: Landrieu would probably lose in real life, but given the identity of the person doing the TL, she probably will eek out another win

Mississippi: Cochran might retire, which could maybe make it interesting, but it's not likely.

Alabama: Easy win.

Georgia: Competitive on paper, but the Democrats don't have strong candidates.

South Carolina: ditto.

Tennessee: The Democrats won the other seat, I'm not sure if the state will elect 2.

North Carolina: Leans Hagan, but will be competitive if the Republicans find a strong candidate.

Virginia: Warner is probably unbeatable, even against McDonnell.

Delaware: Safe.

New Jersey: Depends on LoBiondio's primary. If he wins it, he's the favourite, otherwise Democratic gain.

Rhode Island: Safe

Massachusetts: Safe

New Hampshire: Interesting, but Shaheen will probably hang on.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

To be fair, Landrieu has a 50% approval rating from the last poll I saw a couple months ago (which had Obama down in the general by 16 or so, so it seems accurate)

[Niemeyerite]

As I've said before, I expect a good night for southern democrats... but Miles always surprises us, so I can't make any reasonable prediction. I hope the democrat wins in Montana...

Miles, are you there? Don't forget you have to update this SOON!!!

[Miles]

Update today.

[Miles]

Chuck: Welcome back! We start off with an interesting and closely-watched race in South Carolina. I wouldn't really call this a thre--way rac; its more like a two-and-a half candidate race. Congressman Mick Mulvaney knocked off Senator Lindsey Graham in the GOP primary. Graham however, decided to run as a Write-In candidate. Here's a but of history for our viewers: exactly 60 years ago, Strom Thurmond won his write-in candidacy for this very same seat. The Democrat in this race was a man who no one seems to know much about, Mr. Alvin Greene. Greene was by no means a serious campaigner and his candidacy seemed to produce an an endless amount of gaffes. With about 10 counties left to report and only 47% of precincts in, Mulvaney is clinging to a lead of less than 2 points, with Greene a very distant third.

Rachel: And we do have a few other notable races in South Craolina. Governor Nikki Haley was easily reelected over Charleston councilman Vic Rawl. Vince Sheheen, who narrowly lost to Haley in 2010, won Mick Mulavaney's open House seat. Before Mulvaney, that seat had been in Democratic hands for over a century. This brings South Carolina's House delegation to 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats.

SC Congressional Map

[morgieb]

lol Greene.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I doubt we'd nominate Greene again, and Haley would either be primaried or lose.

[Niemeyerite]

I also think it's unlikely democrats would nominate Greene. However, he may have been the only democrat on the primary ballot, so...

Let's see if Graham wins this. If he does, it may be the beginning of the death of conservative (teabagger) craziness in the USA.

[tmthforu94]

Wait, Greene may not have won the 2010 primary in this scenario. Otherwise, I'd agree that he couldn't win again. Didn't he try for a State Representative slot earlier this year and got like, 2%?

[Niemeyerite]

Wait, Greene may not have won the 2010 primary in this scenario. Otherwise, I'd agree that he couldn't win again. Didn't he try for a State Representative slot earlier this year and got like, 2%?

This TL starts in 2011, so Greene won in 2010 as he did in RL.
And yes, he ran this year and got a ridiculous result.

[Miles]

Chris: And now we have a few more closely-watched races coming in. Tonight is a good night to have the last name "Brown." Both former Senators Sherrod Brown and Scott Brown have successfully made political comebacks.

In Ohio, Democratic Governor Ted Strickland was term-limited. Despite Brown's loss in 2012, Ohio Republicans have become increasingly unpopular. While Governor Strickland leaves office with an lukewarm 41/45 approval rating, Ohioans give the Republican Legislative Majority a dismal 32/51 rating. Those numbers translated into an uphill battle for Republican nominee Josh Mandel. While Mandel did well in the west, Brown but together a coalition of the urban north and Appalachian east to win.

Rachel: And in my state of Massachusetts, we will have a new Governor. Governor Duval Patrick forewent a 3rd term in favoring of becoming the new DNC Chairman. While Scott Brown was voted out of his Senate seat in 2012, polls showed that Bay State voters still viewed him favorably. Brown built a geographic coalition similar to that of his 2010 Senate upset. Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray will be losing this race by about 6 points.

Also, very popular Senator John Kerry went unopposed.

[old timey villain]

Can't wait for the results from the Georgia races! My predictions:

Close races for both the senate and the governorship. I think Chambliss cleans up in the rural areas of the state but is finally too conservative for metro Atlanta. He narrowly loses reelection. Nathan Deal does better in the suburbs of Atlanta and wins a second term as governor.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm glad Sherrod has been elected governor. He didn't deserve to leave politics that soon.