Next country to legalize same-sex marriage

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Any bets? Currently, we have:

The Netherlands
Belgium
Iceland
Norway
Sweden
Argentina
Canada
Spain
Portugal
South Africa
Mexico (recognized everywhere, can only be performed in Mexico City)

I could see France going for it after Sarko's knocked out of power. Other than that, Uruguay? Germany? Luxembourg? Finland?

[greenforest32]

Denmark's post-2011 election government already announced they intend to legalize it next year.

I think France and Germany are very likely if the left wins the upcoming elections.

Australia seems likely too.

[Verily]

Governments in Denmark and Uruguay have both pledged to legalize it, so I would assume they will be next. Uruguay is most likely to be next; the bill has been pending since September (not sure how long legislation takes to pass in Uruguay, but given the pledge I suspect it will happen soon--legislation has not yet been introduced in Denmark, so it will probably take longer).

Australia is unlikely any time soon as they need a whipped ALP vote or a conscience Liberal vote to pass it (right now, ALP plans conscience while Liberals plan to whip). And the ALP is likely to lose the next election, at least as it looks right now.

[Lief 🗽]

Do the French socialists or the German SPD support full same-sex marriage? Because both parties should be in power sooner than later.

[MaxQue]

Do the French socialists or the German SPD support full same-sex marriage? Because both parties should be in power sooner than later.

There was a vote on this in June in the French Assembly and no Communists or Socialists voted against (212 For- 4 Abstentions).

Most of the right voted against. (10 For, 293 Against, 12 Abstentions).

[Marokai Backbeat]

Finland is entirely possible, but it's not a pressing issue either, it seems. The bizarre coalition government there did agree they would vote for same-sex marriage if it came up over the course of government (supposedly, and with the exception of one coalition partner) but it wasn't on the agenda.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In Germany the CDU/CSU would almost certainly whip against and the only party I see guaranteed to whip in favor would be the Greens. But if the SPD did and whipped it could be done with just an SPD/Green coalition, but since Merkel's government has a majority 2013 is the earliest they could win power.

[Tender Branson]

On the other hand, Spain could repeal it with the new government ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

It might be France, as the PS is in favor.

[Franzl]

In Germany the CDU/CSU would almost certainly whip against and the only party I see guaranteed to whip in favor would be the Greens. But if the SPD did and whipped it could be done with just an SPD/Green coalition, but since Merkel's government has a majority 2013 is the earliest they could win power.

You don't really need to whip the Greens. I seriously doubt you'd get a single vote against.

[JonBidinger]

Denmark and Uruguay for certain, and soon too.
After that look to the new Nepalese constitution if it ever comes, France if (when?) the PS wins, The UK sooner rather than later, and Scotland perhaps sooner than the rest of it. Along with more US states (possibly Maryland, Maine, and/or Washington next)
Movement is possible in Finland, Chile, Colombia, Australia, Luxembourg, Brazil, and parts of Mexico.
But of course each of the above have their own maybe/maybe nots.

[afleitch]

Scotland

Consultation on the proposal ends soon with the bill likely to be drafted for the spring and voted on before summer recess. It would command a super-majority in the Parliament.

[MaxQue]

Scotland

Consultation on the proposal ends soon with the bill likely to be drafted for the spring and voted on before summer recess. It would command a super-majority in the Parliament.

The question was about the next COUNTRY. Your answer isn't valid.
Too bad...

Seriously, does Scotland has the power to legalize it, or it would be civil unions or it would be a motion asking UK government to act on it?

[afleitch]

Scotland

Consultation on the proposal ends soon with the bill likely to be drafted for the spring and voted on before summer recess. It would command a super-majority in the Parliament.

The question was about the next COUNTRY. Your answer isn't valid.
Too bad...

Seriously, does Scotland has the power to legalize it, or it would be civil unions or it would be a motion asking UK government to act on it?

Which is of course what Scotland legally is

Scotland has the power to legalise it because marriage law was distinct in Scots Law. In the past Westminster changed the law on our 'behalf' however it is now a devolved matter. Scotland can legalise gay marriage and the public consultation is about just that (as there are already civil unions). The Parliament did discuss civil unions before England and Wales did and moved to legalise it, however at that time it was beginning to move down south too so Parliament used the Sewel Motion to invite the UK Parliament to legislate on it's behalf. This probably won't happen this time as we have an SNP majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Greens are certainly in favour of it.

Unlike the Greens, the SPD doesn't even have a section on "Gays & Lesbians" on their website. After having mistakenly looked under "Family", gay issues actually seem to fall under under "Legal policy" there. Didn't find anything regarding same-sex marriage there though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, finally found it... the SPD supports making the existing civil unions "completely equal" to marriages. Especially in the areas of adoption and taxation.

So same-sex marriage in all but name.

[Peter the Lefty]

Ah, finally found it... the SPD supports making the existing civil unions "completely equal" to marriages. Especially in the areas of adoption and taxation.

So same-sex marriage in all but name.

The SPD just voted to support it at their conference. 

[ingemann]

The Danish situation is a little more complex, what we are discussing is marriage in the state church, de facto homosexual already have all the rights of marriage in registed partnerships, which is more or less the same as secular marriage.