Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread

[Niemeyerite]

I change my prediction now:

Santorum 26%
Paul 20%
Romney 19%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 13%
Bachmman 6%
Huntsman 2%
Roemer 1%

[Vern]

Romney: 21%
Paul: 21%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 11
Perry 11%
Bachmman 10%
Huntsman 5%
Roemer 1%

[big bad fab]

Santorum 23
Romney 22
Paul 21.5
Gingrich 14.5
Perry 10
Bachmann 7.5
Huntsman 1.5
Roemer 0

[Vosem]

Mitt Romney 23.3%
Ron Paul 22.6%
Rick Santorum 18.0%
Newt Gingrich 14.8%
Rick Perry 11.0%
Michele Bachmann 7.4%
Jon Huntsman 2.8%
Minor candidates 0.1%

Based on a poll average, then allocation of undecideds; so, in the event of additional polling, subject to change.

[J. J.]

Paul:  23%
Romney:  22%
Santorum:  21%

That is a tight grouping.  Santorum has a shot as emerging as the "anti-Romney."

SC will be the key.

[Tender Branson]

Just got the daily newsletter from Rasmussen and they are NOT releasing a final IA poll (at least not today). So I can make my final prediction, because I don't think we see any other polls:

1 - RICK SANTORUM (23%)

2 - Mitt Romney (20.5%)
3 - Ron Paul (19.5%)
4 - Newt Gingrich (15%)
5 - Rick Perry (11%)
6 - Michele Bachmann (8%)
7 - Jon Huntsman (2%)
8 - Others (less than 1%)

[© tweed]

here we go.  once and for all.

Romney 24
Paul 23
Santorum 19
Gingrich 15
Perry 10
Bachmann 8
other 1

[California8429]

This is REALLY fun seeing 3 possible candidates win and the whole order of placing a complete mess

I'm going to wait for more polls today, I don't think Santorum had the momentum to make it, but Romney will underperform. If Paul didn't take his vacation I'd say him, but all media attention is on Santorum or Paul freaking out over questions about his past.

[© tweed]

This is REALLY fun seeing 3 possible candidates win and the whole order of placing a complete mess

yeah man we've got ourselves a sh**tshow.  couldn't have asked for more.  unfortunately the two challengers probably can't seriously threaten Romney in the longer term, but one day at a time.

[California8429]

Ron Paul 23%
Rick Santorum 22%
Mitt Romney 18%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Rick Perry 11%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%


I think it's interesting everything thinks Santorum will be first, or in third after Paul and Romney.

[Lief 🗽]

I had one of my trademark pre-election dreams last night. These are not always super accurate but sometimes they are shockingly so. My dream told me the following:

Romney: 30%
Santorum: 30% (Romney narrowly won)
Paul: 16%
Perry: 12%

[Хahar 🤔]

I had a dream about the collapse of a brutal dictatorship in the Utah Valley. What do you think that means, Lief?

[Lief 🗽]

I had a dream about the collapse of a brutal dictatorship in the Utah Valley. What do you think that means, Lief?

Buy gold.

[TheGlobalizer]

Revising to:

Paul 27%
Romney 24%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 3%

Staying here, not convinced Santorum's momentum will persist and the socons/Gingrich continue to split the endorsements.  Could see Paul/Romney lower and the socons higher, but that's mainly a question of turnout.

Final predict.

Paul 25%
Santorum 22%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 12%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 2%

Santorum surge is real but still doesn't seem consensus.  Perry and Gingrich have stabilized and have their strong supporters.  Paul will get his loyalists out.  Romney is a favorite but not enough to inspire caucus-goers.  Bachmann fades, Huntsman pisses away what little support he had with snobbery.

May be a little wishful thinking in there.  Any of Paul, Santorum, Romney can win, it will hinge on Santorum loyalty and Romney inspiration.

[Modernity has failed us]

Paul - 24%
Romney - 21%
Santorum - 17%
Gingrich - 13%
Bachmann - 10%
Perry - 8%
Huntsman - 5%
Roemer - 2%

Pretty sure about the order, not quite as sure about the percentages

Final prediction.

[Averroës Nix]

Final prediction; feeling less bullish about Santorum. No idea who will win:

Paul - 23%
Romney - 23%
Santorum - 21%
Gingrich - 12%
Perry - 11%
Bachmann - 7%
Huntsman - 2%

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Paul - 24%
Santorum - 20%
Romney - 17%
Gingrich - 14%
Bachmann - 13%
Perry - 8%
Huntsman - 3%
Other - 1%

Final predictions:

Santorum: 26%
Paul: 19%
Romney: 18%
Gingrich: 14%
Perry: 13%
Bachmann: 7%
Huntsman: 2%
Other: 1%

[ShadowRocket]

My guess:

Romney- 25%
Santorum-22%
Paul-21%
Perry- 14%
Gingrich- 10%
Bachmann- 6%

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

My guess:

Romney- 25%
Santorum-22%
Paul-21%
Perry- 14%
Gingrich- 10%
Bachmann- 6%

This is my guess now too. Maybe dock Perry a point.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Santorum 24%
Paul 24%
Romney 22%
Perry 9%
Gingrich 9%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 4%
Others 2%

My final prediction:
Santorum 24%
Paul 22%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 7%
Huntsman 2%
Others 1%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rick Santorum 24 (CDs 3 and 4)
Ron Paul 21 (CD 2)
Mitt Romney 20 (CD 1)
Newt Gingrich 14
Rick Perry 11
Michele Bachmann 8
Jon Huntsman 2
Buddy Roemer <1%
Herman Cain <1%

[Keystone Phil]

1) Mitt Romney
2) Rick Santorum
3) Ron Paul
4) Michele Bachmann
5) Rick Perry
6) Newt Gingrich
7) Jon Huntsman

Minor revision:

1) Mitt Romney
2) Rick Santorum
3) Ron Paul
4) Newt Gingrich
5) Rick Perry
6) Michele Bachmann
7) Huntsman

[California8429]

1) Ron Paul 23%
2) Rick Santorum 22%
3) Mitt Romney 19%
4) Newt Gingrich 16%
5) Rick Perry 11%
6) Michele Bachmann 7%
7) Jon Huntsman 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%

I guess that's my final...unless we are allowed to change tomorrow in the day

[Boris]

Paul 24.1%
Romney 23.6%
Santorum 18.7%
Gingrich 14.8%
Perry 10.2%
Bachmann 7.5%
Huntsman 1.0%
Roemer 0.1%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

As posted in the other thread:

Romney 24%
Santorum 22%
Paul 22%
Perry 13%
Gingrich 11%
Bachmann 7%
Huntsman 1%