Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread
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Author Topic: Tender Branson's Iowa Prediction Thread  (Read 11732 times)
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #25 on: December 29, 2011, 10:26:34 AM »

I'm going to change my prediction.... after Sunday hahaha...
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Erc
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« Reply #26 on: December 29, 2011, 11:07:15 AM »
« Edited: December 29, 2011, 12:13:58 PM by Erc »

Despite a last-minute rally behind Santorum, the field remains divided enough for Romney to eke out a win.  No one else comes close to expectations.

Romney 27%
Santorum 24%
Paul 17%
Gingrich 12%
Perry 9%
Bachmann 8%
Others 2%

These percentages are presented for entertainment purposes only! No warranty, expressed or implied, guarantees that they look anything like the real world.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #27 on: December 29, 2011, 01:20:42 PM »

My ballparks:

Paul 28%
Romney 24%
Gingrich 16%
Santorum 12%
Bachmann 10%
Perry 10%
Huntsman MOE

Revising to:

Paul 27%
Romney 24%
Santorum 20%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 3%
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #28 on: December 29, 2011, 02:52:41 PM »

I'm going to go ahead and do this, as I'll be one of the first people to, something I can brag about later on.

1. Rick Santorum - 25%
2. Mitt Romney - 20%
3. Ron Paul - 17%
4. Rick Perry - 13%
5. Michele Bachmann - 11%
6. Newt Gingrich - 10%
7. Buddy Roemer - 2%
8. Jon Huntsman - 1%
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #29 on: December 29, 2011, 02:55:45 PM »

I'm going to go ahead and do this, as I'll be one of the first people to, something I can brag about later on.

1. Rick Santorum - 25%

Not even I am doing that.  Tongue
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #30 on: December 29, 2011, 03:12:27 PM »

I'm going to go ahead and do this, as I'll be one of the first people to, something I can brag about later on.

1. Rick Santorum - 25%

Not even I am doing that.  Tongue
Santorum has surged to a strong third in about a week's time, and with no one really going on the warpath against him (minus the Perry ad), he's going to have the momentum going into Tuesday. If the caucus was January 10th, I may reconsider, but I think Santorum is peaking at the perfect time. I expect a lot of soft supporters for Perry, Bachmann, and Gingrich flock to him in the next few days.
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Reginald
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« Reply #31 on: December 30, 2011, 12:13:41 AM »

Feeling optimistic tonight.

Santorum 22.1%
Paul 21.9%
Romney 21%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 12%
Bachmann 7%
Huntsman 2%
Other 1%

I imagine the aftermath to this would be fun. Grin
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redcommander
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« Reply #32 on: December 30, 2011, 03:39:27 AM »
« Edited: December 30, 2011, 03:41:29 AM by redcommander »

1. Rick Santorum
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ron Paul
4. Rick Perry
5. Michele Bachmann
6. Newt Gingrich
7. Jon Huntsman
8. Others

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Politico
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« Reply #33 on: December 30, 2011, 05:47:55 AM »
« Edited: December 30, 2011, 05:49:58 AM by Politico »

1. Definitely Not Gingrich
2. Almost Surely Not Gingrich
3. Probably Not Gingrich
4. Anybody's Guess
5. Anybody's Guess
6. Anybody's Guess
7. Huntsman
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Politico
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« Reply #34 on: December 30, 2011, 05:51:24 AM »

I think people have forgotten about Palin's endorsement, which I feel is coming just in time for her to steal the spotlight. Sarah Palin will endorse Santorum/Gingrich one or two days before the caucus, and that person will probably win, with Paul in second place and Romney at a close third. Santorum will be fourth if it was Gingrich who was endorsed by Palin, it will be Gingrich in fourth if Santorum was endorsed. Perry will be in fifth, and Bachmann at a distant sixth. I think Bachmann will drop out. Perry and whoever is in 4th place will stick it in until South Carolina. Gingrich might even wait until Florida.

Santorum/Gingrich: 27%
Paul: 20%
Romney: 19%
Gingrich/Santorum: 16%
Perry: 9%
Bachmann: 7%
Huntsman and Friends: 2%



And what if Palin endorses Romney?
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #35 on: December 30, 2011, 01:59:39 PM »

Predicting a few days isn't hard enough.  We should have made Halloween the deadline for official picks, no?  There was a thread.  A lot of Cain picks.  Some Gingrich picks that seemed crazy but then were boasted about as "Told ya so"s a few weeks later.  Out of principle, I'm sticking with my pick from earlier this month which was an approximate 4-way tie for first around 18, followed by a 2nd tier of the next 2 straddling 10.  Though I had Bachmann in that first place cluster instead of Santorum who I had near the bottom no pun intended.  It's volatile enough that who knows but I guess I underestimated her strategic stupidity.  She had the hand to beat the Ricks in the Evangelical sub-primary but has misplayed it.  Her compulsive lying has been unnecessary and backfired.  Why claim HPV vaccine causes retardation?  Why claim her campaign chair was bribed by Paul to leave (it reeks of desperation)?  I assumed she had her finger on the pulse of Evangies and would easily dispose of the Ricks.
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Jasengle
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« Reply #36 on: December 30, 2011, 02:47:10 PM »

1 - MITT ROMNEY (27%)

2 - Ron Paul (19%)
3 - Rick Santorum (16%)
4 - Newt Gingrich (15%)
5 - Michele Bachmann (14%)
6 - Rick Perry (12%)
7 - Jon Huntsman (5%)
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RI
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« Reply #37 on: December 30, 2011, 02:53:55 PM »
« Edited: December 30, 2011, 02:55:35 PM by realisticidealist »

I think Santorum will pull it out. Romney will underpoll. I'm not sure what Paul will do. Gingrich will be in single digits, and probably Bachmann too. Perry might move into fourth potentially.
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California8429
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« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2011, 01:19:34 AM »

Ron Paul 22%
Mitt Romney 20%
Newt Gingrich 18%
Rick Santorum 18%
Rick Perry 13%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Buddy Roemer 1%

Though I'll make a last minute prediction the day of or the day before.
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xavier110
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« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2011, 01:46:21 AM »

1. Santorum
2. Paul
3. Romney
4. Gingrich
5. Perry
6. Bachman
7. Huntsman

To be refined post-Des Moines Register
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2011, 01:53:17 AM »

I reserve the right to change this:

Paul: 25%
Perry: 22%
Romney: 17%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Switch around Perry and Santorum:

Paul: 25%
Santorum: 22%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 16%
Gingrich: 10%
Bachmann: 8%

Updating my prediction as the situation on the ground rapidly changes:

Santorum: 27%
Paul: 24%
Romney: 17%
Perry: 15%
Gingrich: 9%
Bachmann: 6%
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California8429
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« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2011, 01:57:03 AM »

What was the DMR's numbers right before the caucus?
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RI
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« Reply #42 on: December 31, 2011, 03:10:07 AM »

What was the DMR's numbers right before the caucus?

In 2008? https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19200712300
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #43 on: December 31, 2011, 03:23:57 AM »


Aww, remember John Cox? He would have been a credible frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination for a few weeks.
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They put it to a vote and they just kept lying
20RP12
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« Reply #44 on: December 31, 2011, 01:24:09 PM »

Paul - 24%
Romney - 21%
Santorum - 17%
Gingrich - 13%
Bachmann - 10%
Perry - 8%
Huntsman - 5%
Roemer - 2%

Pretty sure about the order, not quite as sure about the percentages Tongue
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #45 on: December 31, 2011, 01:49:19 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2011, 08:56:02 PM by Averroës Nix »

12/28

Paul - 25%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 16%
Perry - 16%
Bachmann - 10%
Gingrich - 8%
Huntsman - 2%

Today - 12/31 (pre-Des Moines Register poll)

Paul - 24%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 22%
Perry - 14%
Gingrich - 8%
Bachmann - 7%
Huntsman - 2%

Romney-Paul-Santorum toss-up.

Excited about Bachmann's crash and Perry's stagnation; Santorum is definitely the most bearable of the three.

EDIT: Post-DRM poll update


Santorum - 26%
Paul - 23%
Romney - 22%
Perry - 13%
Gingrich - 8%
Bachmann - 6%
Huntsman - 1%

Changes are minor. DRM was mostly as expected, but I'm now expecting Santorum to pick up more support from Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann supporters as well as undecideds.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #46 on: December 31, 2011, 03:23:44 PM »

12/28

Paul - 25%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 16%
Perry - 16%
Bachmann - 10%
Gingrich - 8%
Huntsman - 2%

Today - 12/31 (pre-Des Moines Register poll)

Paul - 24%
Romney - 22%
Santorum - 22%
Perry - 14%
Gingrich - 8%
Bachmann - 7%
Huntsman - 2%

Romney-Paul-Santorum toss-up.

Excited about Bachmann's crash and Perry's stagnation; Santorum is definitely the most bearable of the three.



I'll give him this; he isn't a bought and paid for stooge like Bachmann and Perry. He's just genuinely nuts.

Anyhow,

Paul - 28%
Romney - 25%
Santorum - 23%
Perry - 8%
Gingrich - 6%
Bachmann - 4%
Huntsman - 3%
Others - 3%

These percentages could be way off, but because of the way the caucus system works I'm pretty sure the small time guys like Gingrich, etc will lose most of their support to whoever their strongest anti(Paul or Romney or Santorum, depending on the county) option. That should lead to support mostly going to those main three candidates.
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
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« Reply #47 on: December 31, 2011, 03:35:22 PM »

Before the DM Register has its say:

Romney: 26
Paul: 22
Santorum: 21
Perry: 14
Gingrich: 10
Bachmann: 6
Other (Huntsman/Roemer/Cain etc): 1
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #48 on: December 31, 2011, 03:43:21 PM »

Someone hand Phil the tissues. Cheesy

@ppppolls

Iowa still looks very close between Paul and Romney but Santorum's within striking distance and has all the momentum

Given the current trajectory I think there's some chance Santorum could win Iowa without ever leading in a poll
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #49 on: December 31, 2011, 03:55:45 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2011, 04:31:49 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Santorum 24%
Paul 24%
Romney 22%
Perry 9%
Gingrich 9%
Bachmann 6%
Huntsman 4%
Others 2%
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