Who will win Lebanon in 2012?
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Author Topic: Who will win Lebanon in 2012?  (Read 9384 times)
Simfan34
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« on: January 02, 2012, 11:30:56 PM »
« edited: May 09, 2012, 05:33:52 PM by Severe Simfan34 »
Today is Lebanon's first-in-the-nation primary race.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2012/Jan-03/158621-the-republicans-best-bet-may-not-be-whom-you-expect.ashx#axzz1iMldFaWt

This marks his second overseas endorsement.
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2012, 11:31:43 PM »
GAME CHANGER
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2012, 11:33:33 PM »
What time do the polls close in Lebanon tomorrow night?
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Free Palestine
FallenMorgan
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2012, 12:09:51 AM »
Maybe if an Israeli newspaper endorsed them.  They are the 51st state afterall.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2012, 12:12:40 AM »
Unfortunately only Ron Paul was able to make it on to the ballot in Lebanon.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2012, 12:17:58 AM »
Lebanon's a caucus, right?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2012, 07:29:15 AM »
Quote from: Twilight Sparkle on January 03, 2012, 12:09:51 AM
Maybe if an Israeli newspaper endorsed them.  They are the 51st state afterall.
No.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2012, 07:30:24 AM »

I'm sure it's a primary.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2012, 08:13:00 AM »
I expect Maronites, Muslims and Druzes voting sharply across religious lines.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2012, 10:54:45 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2012, 10:58:04 AM by Simfan34 »
New Poll: Lebanon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-02

Summary:
Romney:
22%
Santorum:
21%
Huntsman:
18%
Paul:
12%
Other:
5%
Undecided:
22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Look at those cross tabs- it almost seems strictly religious- Santorum's support is 92% Marionite.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2012, 11:00:52 AM »
Quote from: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 10:54:45 AM
New Poll: Lebanon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-02

Summary:
Romney:
22%
Santorum:
21%
Huntsman:
18%
Paul:
12%
Other:
5%
Undecided:
22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Look at those cross tabs- it almost seems strictly religious- Santorum's support is 92% Marionite.

PPP now polls in Lebanon as well ? Their phone bill must be sky-high !

Unless it was an Internet poll (but if this were the case, Ron Paul for sure must be leading).
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Simfan34
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« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2012, 11:04:36 AM »
« Edited: January 03, 2012, 11:06:43 AM by Simfan34 »
Why? Everyone knows Lebanon is a state just like any other. Their primary is known for being rather important. It foreshadowed Giuliani's downfall in Florida when he preformed worse than expected here. It gave then-native son Émile Lahoud a bump in 2000 before being beaten by Bush on Super Tuesday. Then, cross-sectarian voting existed. Can we see it this year?

I really think Huntsman can gain the support of the Sunnis as well.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2012, 11:05:34 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on January 02, 2012, 11:33:33 PM
What time do the polls close in Lebanon tomorrow night?

In 2 hours, which is 8pm Beirut time. Exit Polls can be expected as well. Turnout was moderate.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2012, 11:07:54 AM »
Thought you meant the UK's Daily Star for a minute there. Would've been funnier.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2012, 11:12:06 AM »
Santorum has been to all six governates!
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2012, 12:10:48 PM »
Any word on turnout in Druze areas?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2012, 12:41:41 PM »

And how about the turnout among Polaqi refugees?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2012, 01:05:35 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on January 03, 2012, 12:41:41 PM

And how about the turnout among Polaqi refugees?


Don't worry. I already urged my cousins to support Santorum.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2012, 01:14:09 PM »
Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2012, 01:27:57 PM »
Santorum only has the Maronite vote secured, other Christian groups are strongly leaning Romney.

Did they allow expatriate voting? I know they were dithering on that issue, Lebanese abroad are heavily Maronite and that would greatly affect the results. I've also heard that Huntsman was making some inroads into the few Orthodocs. Paul has had the most mixed support, but he's still largely Sunni-backed.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2012, 01:33:18 PM »
I *heart* this thread.  Please continue.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2012, 01:36:19 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2012, 01:55:52 PM by Simfan34 »
Tender, can we sticky this? The first exit poll results should be coming out any time now.

Unfortunately, I'm hearing reports of irregularities in parts of Beirut.

edit: here is a blank map of Lebanon's counties (and Beirut's wards) that can be colored in as the night goes on.



And the source, so we know what's where.

Has Jumblatt endorsed anyone yet? Or is he going to do one of his quixotic third party runs again that gets only 10% in his home state?
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2012, 02:00:14 PM »
Quote from: Simfan34 on January 03, 2012, 01:36:19 PM
Tender, can we sticky this? The first exit poll results should be coming out any time now.

Unfortunately, I'm hearing reports of irregularities in parts of Beirut.

edit: here is a blank map of Lebanon's counties (and Beirut's wards) that can be colored in as the night goes on.



And the source, so we know what's where.

Has Jumblatt endorsed anyone yet? Or is he going to do one of his quixotic third party runs again that gets only 10% in his home state?

Walid Jumblatt is clearly the Ron Paul of Lebanon.

By the way, had a fantastic feast at a restaurant in a Druze town (Daliyat al-Karmel, Israel; near Haifa) in 2006.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2012, 02:23:39 PM »
Wait...has anyone actually seen Jon Huntsman's birth certificate?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2012, 02:24:45 PM »
Significance of Lebanon primary cannot be understated.

Remember when, back in 1972, Muskie cried in Beirut? That changed the entire race.
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