Who will win Lebanon in 2012?

[Insula Dei]

Don't count on Jumblatt backing out if his campaign falters outside of the Druze area's, people, because with the scores he's going to rack up in those he'll still be able to secure that all important 4th ticket to New Hampshire no matter what. If he wasn't on the ballot I'd exoect most of his support to coalesce around Romney and maybe Huntsman.

The big question of course is how well Paul is going to do in the Palestinian caucus meetings. If these are among the first to report Paul might be able to spin the evening's narrative in his advantage before the inevitable hammering in the Bekaa valley would come in.

[Insula Dei]

Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

So typically Romney to really pander to the Maronite vote. One just has to wonder what his campaign think they are doing by so completely ignoring other crucial voting blocs. With such a complete disconnect with the actual situation on the ground (even among Maronites, surely, a move as transparant as this one must feel very 1980s)I'm hard pressed to see him do better than a distant third.

[Insula Dei]

So sad to see a the last, grim spasms of a dying former glory.

Also, I had already almost succeeded in forgetting Huntsman ever existed.