Who will win Lebanon in 2012?

[Simfan34]

Today is Lebanon's first-in-the-nation primary race.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2012/Jan-03/158621-the-republicans-best-bet-may-not-be-whom-you-expect.ashx#axzz1iMldFaWt

This marks his second overseas endorsement.

[Simfan34]

Lebanon's a caucus, right?

I'm sure it's a primary.

[Simfan34]

New Poll: Lebanon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-02

Summary:

Romney:	22%
Santorum:	21%
Huntsman:	18%
Paul:	12%
Other:	5%
Undecided:	22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Look at those cross tabs- it almost seems strictly religious- Santorum's support is 92% Marionite.

[Simfan34]

Why? Everyone knows Lebanon is a state just like any other. Their primary is known for being rather important. It foreshadowed Giuliani's downfall in Florida when he preformed worse than expected here. It gave then-native son Émile Lahoud a bump in 2000 before being beaten by Bush on Super Tuesday. Then, cross-sectarian voting existed. Can we see it this year?

I really think Huntsman can gain the support of the Sunnis as well.

[Simfan34]

Santorum has been to all six governates!

[Simfan34]

Santorum only has the Maronite vote secured, other Christian groups are strongly leaning Romney.

Did they allow expatriate voting? I know they were dithering on that issue, Lebanese abroad are heavily Maronite and that would greatly affect the results. I've also heard that Huntsman was making some inroads into the few Orthodocs. Paul has had the most mixed support, but he's still largely Sunni-backed.

[Simfan34]

Tender, can we sticky this? The first exit poll results should be coming out any time now.

Unfortunately, I'm hearing reports of irregularities in parts of Beirut.

edit: here is a blank map of Lebanon's counties (and Beirut's wards) that can be colored in as the night goes on.



And the source, so we know what's where.

Has Jumblatt endorsed anyone yet? Or is he going to do one of his quixotic third party runs again that gets only 10% in his home state?

[Simfan34]

Yelnoc, you seem to be confusing the two branches of Hezbollah. One goes on bombing sprees, fights Israel, yadda yadda. The other is non-military, political, and is the one affiliated with the Tea Party. They're much larger, and have been around since the 20's when the US received the League of Nations mandate over Lebanon. They opposed the 66' statehood referendum and rioted in  67' when Lebanon was admitted into the Union.

Perry's secessionist comments actually were a plus with them, with their whole semi-independentism

Don't count on Jumblatt backing out if his campaign falters outside of the Druze area's, people, because with the scores he's going to rack up in those he'll still be able to secure that all important 4th ticket to New Hampshire no matter what. If he wasn't on the ballot I'd exoect most of his support to coalesce around Romney and maybe Huntsman.

The big question of course is how well Paul is going to do in the Palestinian caucus meetings. If these are among the first to report Paul might be able to spin the evening's narrative in his advantage before the inevitable hammering in the Bekaa valley would come in.

I meant that Jumblatt would run as an independent, but why not?

People often write off this primary, despite its first-in the nation status, because of its radically different demographics and religious/ethnic voting, but I think Lebanon holds a key as to various groups and demographics in back in the other 50 states.

And don't rule out the Bekaa Valley- Paul has been able to draw support across ethnic and religious lines,  and he can at least count on the ~15%-odd Sunni vote there. We'll see how it turns out.

I really don't know why Jumblatt is running in the GOP. He's an outright socialist. He's not going anywhere. I know Lebanon is, like, the only state were all groups are 50% Democrat and 50% Republican, but I see no path for him. He's not in Buddy Roemer-land. He's in Karger-land.

[Simfan34]

BREAKING NEWS: LB GOP Chairman Samir Jaja is announcing that vote count in Bint Jbeil, Marjeyoun, and Bekaa West is being stopped. These are Paul's strongest areas!

Yet again, trilingualism makes these kinds of things difficult.

[Simfan34]

Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

[Simfan34]

Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

So typically Romney to really pander to the Maronite vote. One just has to wonder what his campaign think they are doing by so completely ignoring other crucial voting blocs. With such a complete disconnect with the actual situation on the ground (even among Maronites, surely, a move as transparant as this one must feel very 1980s)I'm hard pressed to see him do better than a distant third.

Yet Maronites are clearly with Santorum. This could alienate him with his Orthodox core base. Most of his support comes from non-Maronite Christians.

Perhaps if the 16 million Lebanese (who are virtually all Maronite) abroad come back, it would pay off, but until then he has to deal with the 4 million here.

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

Damn low cell-phone penetration. I would have killed to see that. Syria's primary isn't until super Tuesday, but I really think al-Assad would have made a great president. So stylish, a good record as governor! All these two states are surrounded by foreign countries, and the other 50 of our 52 in North America are... um... why did I say that?

[Simfan34]

I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

Assad would end up like Perry.

"If elected, there are 3 things I will do to my opponents : murder them, torture them, and... wait, what was that ? Murder, torture, and... ? Oops."

I feel Assad prefers to remain Governor of Syria for life, just like Perry wants to be Governor of Texas for life.

Btw, any thoughts from will Alawites support during Syria primary?

You're far too unkind. The riots this year were led by independentist leftists. It's hard to understand from here. I even heard he wants to institute term limits- no five terms as governor like dad. I think he'd make a great candidate in 2016 for the GOP. He's not a dictator, far less autocratic than Perry or Bloomberg are. This picture sums up how most feel:



Voting in Syria is far less ethnic-based than Lebanon when it comes to national two-party politics. And in any case, al-Assad has endorsed Romney.

All right, all right, we get it, every presidential candidate picks up a few muslin dresses while swinging through the two Levantine States. Back to the primary.

We have a new exit poll from Université Saint-Joseph. They've been fairly reliable.

22%  Santorum
21%  Romney   
21%  Huntsman
17%  Paul
13%  Jumblatt
6%    Others

http://www.usj.edu.lb/en/polling/primary2012/exit/2330poll03012012.pdf

[Simfan34]

There's no way any Middle Eastern state would vote for anyone other than Paul.  Since Paul is the only one who doesn't worship Israel.

Most people there, being Americans, don't hate Israel. And the polls prove you wrong. His tolerance for Iranian nuclear weapons resulted in a sharp decline in both states- he went from 18% to 7% there in Lebanon.

[Simfan34]

I think Governor Assad would have been a dream candidate for the GOP, had he only ran. Young (46), yet experienced (eleven years as Governor, longer than anyone in the nation). Has attractive wife and is very popular (reelected with 97.6% last time).

That's only because the Dems actually didn't nominate a candidate. He's not running for a fourth term, though.

Any news from Lebanon? No one except Huntsman is in state, the rest are in Iowa. Even he's leaving for NH.

[Simfan34]

Huntsman has conceded.

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[Simfan34]

Jumblatt has dropped out.

[Simfan34]

Is there any truth to the rumor that if this somehow ends up going to convention former Governor Lahoud might be a compromise candidate?

If Emil Lahoud can overcome the legacy of the '05 crisis, then maybe. His opposition to the independence of  the state organizations- the police, for one, from Syria really hurt his popularity. I'm surprised he wasn't impeached.

I mean, merging them made sense in 1978, but by 2005 it was really pointless and seen as a sign of a "domination" of sorts.

[Simfan34]

Santorum, by a margin of 1.2%

Santorum 21%
Romney 19%
Huntsman 18%
Paul 12%
Perry 5%
Gingrich 5%

[Simfan34]

I'm calling Lebanon for Romney, 53%.

[Simfan34]

Obama or Romney?

[Simfan34]

So sad to see a the last, grim spasms of a dying former glory.

Also, I had already almost succeeded in forgetting Huntsman ever existed.

Is this an insult?

[Simfan34]

Lebanon is not part of the US, so the only ones voting there would be US citizens living there otherwise Republicans or Democrats abroad.  On election day, their votes will be counted in the last state they lived in.  Its not like France or Italy where they have electoral districts globally for abroad residents.  Off course the US lets those abroad vote unlike some, for example where I live in Canada, if you are Canadian who has not resided in the country in the past five years you cannot vote.  I am not sure how many other countries follow this although it is a rule I generally support, mind you unlike the US we don't tax citizens living outside the country either.

Of course Lebanon is part of the US. So is Syria. With Alaska and Hawaii they are the four states not part of the 48 contiguous states.