Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #125 on: January 03, 2012, 08:13:42 PM »
Is anyone surprised that paul supporters may be disproportionately likely to show up early? Just sayin'......
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #126 on: January 03, 2012, 08:13:56 PM »
Besides Roemer, who is "other"? I assume some diehards for Cain and Johnson may vote for them, but who else?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #127 on: January 03, 2012, 08:14:19 PM »
Quote from: Meeker on January 03, 2012, 08:11:45 PM
Ah, interesting. Then yes, it would make sense that the most organized campaigns would lead in the early voters.

You would think that but then what explains Obama's win in 2008?
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #128 on: January 03, 2012, 08:14:39 PM »
Quote from: King on January 03, 2012, 08:13:13 PM
Guys, only olds show up on time to an event.  The fashionably late crowd won't be for Romney.

looks good for Paul.  if I had an Intrade account I'd be buying him hard at 30
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redcommander
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« Reply #129 on: January 03, 2012, 08:15:03 PM »
Quote from: King on January 03, 2012, 08:13:13 PM
Guys, only olds show up on time to an event.  The fashionably late crowd won't be for Romney.

You're right. Fashionably late people vote for Santorum.
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redcommander
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« Reply #130 on: January 03, 2012, 08:15:52 PM »
When are they going to start releasing results?
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #131 on: January 03, 2012, 08:16:20 PM »
Plus, I don't think the undecided crowd is likely to swing to Paul.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #132 on: January 03, 2012, 08:16:24 PM »
CNN updated their entrance poll:

24% Paul
23.5% Romney
18-19% Santorum
13% Gingrich
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #133 on: January 03, 2012, 08:16:59 PM »
I assume olds show up early. Youngs and especially middle-ageds (who have jobs) show up later.
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redcommander
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« Reply #134 on: January 03, 2012, 08:17:11 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on January 03, 2012, 08:16:24 PM
CNN updated their entrance poll:

24% Paul
23.5% Romney
18-19% Santorum
13% Gingrich

So basically it's not good news for Paul.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #135 on: January 03, 2012, 08:17:11 PM »
Looks like Bachman overshot her promise to have more voters than Huckabee in 2008
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Progressive
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« Reply #136 on: January 03, 2012, 08:17:40 PM »
It's just early respondents--probably meaningless
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #137 on: January 03, 2012, 08:18:01 PM »
Quote from: redcommander on January 03, 2012, 08:15:03 PM
Quote from: King on January 03, 2012, 08:13:13 PM
Guys, only olds show up on time to an event.  The fashionably late crowd won't be for Romney.

You're right. Fashionably late people vote for Santorum.

Only the especially fashionable ones.
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Free Palestine
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« Reply #138 on: January 03, 2012, 08:18:10 PM »
Quote from: Marokai Breakneck on January 03, 2012, 07:55:26 PM
Quote from: Twilight Sparkle on January 03, 2012, 07:54:32 PM
Quote from: Volrath50 on January 03, 2012, 07:53:32 PM
I'm presently on a train with internet, but no TV access. Are there any TV stations streaming their coverage of Iowa over the internet, for free?

http://www.epctv.com/channels/MSNBC-Online-Watch-4744.htm

Though the first stream on that link is, for whatever reason, presently on Current, instead.

I noticed.  It seems to be a stream of some person on their tv.  It even has flipping through channels.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #139 on: January 03, 2012, 08:18:19 PM »
Do we have any actual results up ? The CNN website is still empty...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #140 on: January 03, 2012, 08:18:58 PM »
Quote from: Antonio V on January 03, 2012, 08:18:19 PM
Do we have any actual results up ? The CNN website is still empty...

In about 45 minutes ...
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #141 on: January 03, 2012, 08:20:19 PM »
And past results have shown entrance/exit polls are better for showing demographics than actual results.  What's the MoE for the entrance poll?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #142 on: January 03, 2012, 08:21:05 PM »
In this age of smart phones and the internet, publicly broadcasting entrance polls is actually kind of a terrible idea. If people are wavering and get a text that Santorum is in third place, they might not vote for him, based on a poll of early voters that isn't accurate...
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Meeker
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« Reply #143 on: January 03, 2012, 08:21:32 PM »
Quote from: Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC on January 03, 2012, 08:20:19 PM
And past results have shown entrance/exit polls are better for showing demographics than actual results.  What's the MoE for the entrance poll?

Well considering it had Romney leading in 2008 and then he lost by 10, the MoE is pretty damn high.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #144 on: January 03, 2012, 08:21:47 PM »
I hope Mitt ends this crazy primary season tonight. I'm tired of all the flavor of the months.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #145 on: January 03, 2012, 08:21:58 PM »
Quote from: Lief on January 03, 2012, 08:21:05 PM
In this age of smart phones and the internet, publicly broadcasting entrance polls is actually kind of a terrible idea. If people are wavering and get a text that Santorum is in third place, they might not vote for him, based on a poll of early voters that isn't accurate...

fascist
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #146 on: January 03, 2012, 08:22:46 PM »
Quote from: Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC on January 03, 2012, 08:20:19 PM
And past results have shown entrance/exit polls are better for showing demographics than actual results.  What's the MoE for the entrance poll?

710 respondents so far, which would be +/- 4%

The final poll in 2008 had 1600 respondents.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
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« Reply #147 on: January 03, 2012, 08:23:52 PM »
It didn't have to be high in 08, but it couldve been an outlier. I don't like them because usually stronger supporters will consent to the poll, so leaners tend not to want to (especially for entrance polls).
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argentarius
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« Reply #148 on: January 03, 2012, 08:24:23 PM »
Anyone remember the entrance numbers from 4 years ago?
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redcommander
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« Reply #149 on: January 03, 2012, 08:25:09 PM »
Perhaps Bachmann could swing late voters to her camp?
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