Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[Badger]

The Republicans have to go dump some Paul votes into the Mississippi before they announce the other 50% of the precincts.

And so it begins....

[RogueBeaver]

Oh, Mitt got 33% in Catholic Dubuque. Rick got 26%. So Mitt is running strong in Catholic areas too.

Mitt is actually severely underperforming in Catholic areas compared to 2008.

He has a Catholic evangelical as his main rival, which he didn't have last time.

[Sam Spade]

Given what's out, I'd be a little surprised if Santorum's not the winner, whatever winner means in this race.

[Mehmentum]

Google has Santorum 24%, Romney 23%, Paul 22%.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

The Republicans have to go dump some Paul votes into the Mississippi before they announce the other 50% of the precincts.

Sadly, this is entirely possible.

[Lief 🗽]

Oh, Mitt got 33% in Catholic Dubuque. Rick got 26%. So Mitt is running strong in Catholic areas too.

He was running stronger in that part of the state last time around.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

54% in. Santorum 24. Romney 24. Paul 22

[pbrower2a]

Nearly a three-way tie.

All in all, the ultimate winner is someone not running in the Republican caucus.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Romney's base areas are played out for the most part, outside of Sioux City.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Any guess when a call will be made?

[Sam Spade]

Nearly a three-way tie.

All in all, the ultimate winner is someone not running in the Republican caucus.

Please keep your useless drivel to the approval ratings thread, thank you.

[NVGonzalez]

Google has Santorum 24%, Romney 23%, Paul 22%.

In b4 Santorum Google jokes.

[Reginald]

Santorum now up on Romney by almost 600 votes and almost a whole percentage point - 24.4% to 23.5%.

[Colbert]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia


48% of 17-29 vote for Paul !



women, big income and old peoples, as usual, vote in mainstream... : romney

[Torie]

Carl Rove just pointed out what may put Mitt in first, although I think it is an uphill battle. Des Moines is only 33% in, and the late precincts are probably big, and middle class, with a couple upper middle class. So if Mitt gets a big lead in a few big Des Moines precincts, that plus what is out in Dubuque, may be enough to offset whatever lead Rick gets in the 5 western counties that are still out, which Mitt carried last time, but he was positioned a bit differently last time. Mitt is trashing Rick in Johnson County (U of Iowa), with Paul coming in first of course, and a fair amount of it is out too I see.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Any guess when a call will be made?

I'm guessing around 12:00 am Eastern, 11:00 pm Central.  We're starting to pick up the pace a bit, we're approaching two-thirds.

[J. J.]

24-24-22

[Jackson]

Tomorrow's headline.

"Santorum comes from behind in Iowa"

[CLARENCE 2015!]

One thing is for sure.... Rick Santorum will run for President in 2016

[tmthforu94]

I would be fine with Santorum winning - Romney's only threat in New Hampshire is Paul, and a third place showing here will likely keep him from getting the momentum he needs for New Hampshire. Santorum will be able to compete in South Carolina and Florida, but probably doesn't have the organization and money needed to win both of them, especially considering that Gingrich will be going all out in South Carolina, as will Perry.

If you had told me a month ago Romney would be taking a close second in Iowa, I would be giddy.

[cinyc]

Although Ron Paul has fallen slightly behind Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney in the vote-counting, he still has a chance of winning - in part because some of his strongest areas, college towns, have been slow to report results.

Story County, where Iowa State University is located, has had none of its 43 precincts report. And only 22 of 57 precincts have reported in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. (Mr. Paul has 36 percent of the votes there so far.)

- Nate Silver

Johnson County's now 91% in.  Romney is winning it by about 5 points.  Unless one or more of the Johnson County precincts is on the Iowa campus, Paul's hopes hinge on Story and the city of Des Moines.

We really need to see some of Woodbury before projecting anything.   If it goes Romney like in 2008, he could win.  If it goes Santorum, Romney probably ends up in second.

[Torie]

Any guess when a call will be made?

At least an hour.  And this one is very hard to project, particularly since the turnout in precincts varies so much, and who turns out, and media markets and so forth.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

59% in. 4antorum 24. Romney 24. Paul 22

[Jackson]

Google Romney-25% Santorum-24% Paul-22%

What!

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm anxious to see what the western tier counties along the Nebraska border will look like (Sioux City and points north and south).  Those 4 counties that are not reporting, yet, were solidly Romney 4 years ago.  Also, looks like Santorum's strength is in the rural farmland north and west of Des Moines and east of the aforementioned western tier.