Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[Lief 🗽]

On the other hand, Romney is just the kind of candidate that would underpoll spectacularly in Iowa.

[Lief 🗽]

On the other hand, Romney is just the kind of candidate that would underpoll spectacularly in Iowa.

underpoll in polling or in the actual contest?

As in his actual caucus numbers are below his opinion polling numbers.

[Lief 🗽]

On the other hand, Romney is just the kind of candidate that would underpoll spectacularly in Iowa.

underpoll in polling or in the actual contest?

As in his actual caucus numbers are below his opinion polling numbers.

That's overpolling, isn't it?

Is it? He's performing UNDER his POLLS. Maybe you're right.

[Lief 🗽]

Google maps is doing an election results thing to: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

Good for those of us who have no idea which counties have which cities in them.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, guys, I'm going to bed. It's midnight here and I don't want to wake up too late tomorrow. It's a pity, but I'll have to learn about the results tomorrow.

F- it, I changed my mind. I'm here guys !

When I was living in Prague last year, I spent the whole night watching the midterm results. Eventually I got to bed at around 6 am and slept for an hour before getting up for class.

[Lief 🗽]

CNN ENTRANCE POLL: PAUL, ROMNEY, SANTORUM IN TOP TIER

[Lief 🗽]

MSNBC says it's TOO EARLY to call not TOO CLOSE to call.

[Lief 🗽]

Is the entrance poll online somewhere?

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

Looks like a Paul/Romney tie.

[Lief 🗽]

I assume olds show up early. Youngs and especially middle-ageds (who have jobs) show up later.

[Lief 🗽]

In this age of smart phones and the internet, publicly broadcasting entrance polls is actually kind of a terrible idea. If people are wavering and get a text that Santorum is in third place, they might not vote for him, based on a poll of early voters that isn't accurate...

[Lief 🗽]

Turnout is lower than expected in rural areas according to FOX, more ballots than voters.

Not surprising. Only Paul really has an organization in the state and I assume he's focused on cities and college towns.

[Lief 🗽]

Paul won a precinct in Warren County.

[Lief 🗽]

Paul has won all three precincts that have reported so far.

[Lief 🗽]

With very little reporting its:

Santorum 26%
Paul 24%
Romney 19%

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

[Lief 🗽]

Google results are ahead of everyone else apparently.

[Lief 🗽]

Gingrich is actually leading in a county, Winneshiek with 50% reporting!

[Lief 🗽]

Romney ahead now... gross.

[Lief 🗽]

Paul is leading by 6% in Polk County (Des Moines) with only 27% of the vote in.  

Based on that alone, I really have to think that Paul is going to win this.  Unreal.  

A lot of small counties that Santorum should win still have to come in too.

[Lief 🗽]

How are the Democratic caucus's going?

Some guy named Obama swept it and will get all the delegates.

No one has written in Hillary or Feingold in protest?

Or voted for Randall Terry/Vermin Supreme.

Democratic caucus has a 15% threshold at each precinct, remember. So even if there were some protest votes they probably wouldn't win any county delegates (which is what is counted in the Dem caucus).

[Lief 🗽]

A lot of those counties where Santorum is running strong are mostly in and Romney is leading in Dubuque.  My guess is Romney does no worse than 2md.  He might win it.

As Dubuque goes so goes Iowa???

[Lief 🗽]

Still optimistic about not-Romney. His best areas are a lot more in than Paul's or Santorum's. It'll be interesting to see who wins western Iowa this time. But Polk is still out, Story is still out, the southern counties where Huckabee was in the 40s and 50s last time are still out.

[Lief 🗽]

I think it's over for the rLOVEution.

[Lief 🗽]

I can't believe what we're seeing out of Marion and Jasper. Can somebody more familiar with Iowa than I am explain what it is about those counties relative to the rest of the south-and-east-of-Des Moines part of the state?

Seriously. Not only why is Santorum doing so well, but also Romney doing particularly poor there?

I assume both have plenty Evangelicals. Huckabee won them by about 50% in 2008.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats were pretty much done counting by now last time. Republicans are slow and incompetent.