Senegalese Presidential Election, February 26th 2012

[minionofmidas]

Strongman Abdolaye Wade to run for another seven year term even though he's 85. Elections in the country have never been particularly fair but always (as in, ever since independence) at least sort of free and did once result in a peaceful transfer of power (getting Wade in).

EDIT: No, actually only since the late 70s.

Youssou N'Dour is running against Wade!

[minionofmidas]

Does anybody have regional figures or maps for any of the past elections? Would be interesting. (Adam Carr has nothing.)

[minionofmidas]

2007

Somebody make me a map pretty please?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a blank map:

[minionofmidas]

Heh, just noticed they created three additional regions since 2007 so that map doesn't reflect the results at the link. And anyways, clicking on "by region" just gets you the departements (the next tier) sorted by region, but not summed. Checking whether the departement map has remained the same since 2007 now... there's a blank map of them on wikipedia.

[minionofmidas]

Seems like it has changed as well... but the wiki blank map reflects the 2007 state of affairs. Haven't checked everywhere. Good enough I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, right then. So what colours for which candidates?

[minionofmidas]

Ah, right then. So what colours for which candidates?

Hmmm... the ruling party is a member in this strange little international party grouping. Third placed Osmane Tanor Dieng obviously needs to be red - nothing socialist about Sedar Senghor's Socialist Party or about it's current remnant, of course, but, well, it's the name.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The site seems to have crashed now.

[minionofmidas]

...but thankfully, the new region creations all consisted of the evelation of a département to region status (and division of it and the mother region into additional départements), so a map by current region was quite possible.

And yeah, I made myself a map from Al's blank. Now you see why I usually let Al do that.



Seck won his home département (but not the region). From what I know, Sagna's map is possibly functional as a standin for a map of the Christian population (except you need to double the shares.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey, don't knock yourself; that's actually pretty good

[minionofmidas]

I lost some time before I decided to restrict myself to just a single greyscale with only five shades...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Given the attitude of the Constitutional Council, I wonder if we could count on some fair results...

Especially if, like in Côte d'Ivoire, that'd be those in charge to collect and give some official results, which I don't know personally.

That Wade really created a mess out of nothing, so far Sénégal was a kind of example in Africa. If I believe some France24 reports, the guy would even still have some support apparently, especially in some places of the inner land, he could have given his support to a candidate of his and stay in the background, he is just totally screwing the situation. His main argument is 'Sengor stayed 40 years, why not 12??'.

Apparently the 'Y'en a marre' ('Enough') movement goes tougher lately, or at least the repression goes tougher against them, and wouldn't be always in line with the official joint-opposition movement 'Movement of the 23rd of June - M23', they apparently stick to Youssou'n Door more. But it would be mostly a young progressive men movement, and the fact that repression against them lead to some violence, that might not increase their popularity in other classes of the society. That being said, they would still represent an actual trend, I remind the 1st time I heard about them was a short time after the Tunisian revolution.

The M23 and Wade are apparently both trying to get the support of the both main Sufi brotherhoods, the Murid one would indirectly give its support to Wade, and the Tijan one would be closer from the opposition, but none gave clear vote consigns, and personally I wouldn't know what would be their actual weight in the Senegalese society, an AFP report says that themselves consider having less influence on the Senegalese population than before. So thankfully no risk of conflict this way.

Soldiers are voting today.

[minionofmidas]

Given the attitude of the Constitutional Council, I wonder if we could count on some fair results...

I didn't follow this after creating the thread, except for hearing they allowed Wade to run again (not unreasonable) and banned N'dour (not reasonable).

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, I'm not sure how allowing Wade is reasonable.

That's the guy himself who limited the to 2 times 5 years mandates, and who even said 'I won't represent myself', but then it seems he wanted to create a golden armchair for his son and create a dynasty, and thus had tried preceding amazing constitutional changes in this sense last year, which created the street opposition movements against him, he withdrew them and now hides behind 'the mandate in which I was when I changed the Constitution [which did last 7 years] can't count'. I guess he's trying to get reelected to say 'now I've been chosen by the people, I can change the Constitution the way I want!', to create this golden path for the son.

About the fairness of results, according to a French journalist which has a good knowledge of Africa, Antoine Glaser, apparently the democratic tradition effectively became quite good in Sénégal, and for example, Karim Wade (the golden son) took a slap when he tried to get Dakar's Town Hall in 2009. That being said, yesterday during a debate on France24 with one representing Wade's party, and one other representing the Parti Socialiste Sénégalais, that latter spoke about a massive fraud of electoral cards recently discovered, but well, you can never know what is accurate in such debates.

There is also the fact that apparently still 300k to 400k electoral cards have yet to be distributed and the fat that last week the Céna, the independent electoral commission hadn't even received its budget to send the 18k observers all over the country.

That being said, on an other hand, there would be this well working democratic tradition so far, and several mission from abroad, notably a AU one and a EU one (euh, respectively 40 and 90 people though), which have been very well accepted by a spokesman of Wade.

Apparently if Wade isn't elected on the 1st round, and he arrogantly spouts 'I gonna be elected by 55%, others are not worth it', which doesn't help, it could be hard for him on 2nd round if the opposition succeeds to unite, which isn't guaranteed so far apparently.

If results show him losing, one can only hope he doesn't continue his arrogant attitude till Gbagbo level trying to stay on power using twisted results from the Constitutional Council of which the wage of judges would have been significantly increased if one believes the guy representing the PSS, because the street movements, which are not only in Dakar, might not easily accept it, and if results show him winning, one can also wonder how easily those same movements will accept it.

And well, one can also wonder how it will happen till the scrutiny day, because if apparently the Sufi brotherhoods try to stay rather out of it, the tear gas in a Tidiane/Tijane (different spellings), which led to a retaliating burning of the town hall of Tivaouane, which is the center of the Tidiane community, apparently led by pro-Wade mayor, could significantly contribute to radicalize people against Wade, and even to give more popular supports to those young movements if you believe some analysts from Sénégal, outside of the fact that it could eventually contribute to tensions between the 2 main religious communities of the country, Tidiane and Mouride.

Not much of an easy situation for some fair elections.

[minionofmidas]

The opposition immediately united the only other time a President failed to get 50%, leading to Wade's election. The President got almost identical shares both round back then.
This is the normal thing to expect in authoritarian or quasi-authoritarian countries with free elections (getting worse if they're not entirely fair the first time round and there's protests after). Reelection depends on an air of inevitability, and failing to win on the first round punctures that hard.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Just seen some reports of what happened today. Apparently opposition called to continue protests, some leaders went in the street to personally call for it, including Youssou N'Dour. And this one has been announced wounded on France24. Won't help to make the situation calmer.

I don't know if there would be any rules about the kind of political system in Sénégal, and I miss knowledge about the Senegalese political scene to provide a personal analysis, but, at the very least, it seems that what's happening now, is something quite new in the Sénégal society.

[Nhoj]

Looks as if it will probably be going to a runoff  between wade and Macky Sall a former PM who fell out with wade in 2008, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17176798

Results should be out sometime tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

Runoff is tomorrow.

Seeing as Wade got just 35% in the first round (Sall 26%, Niasse 13%, Dieng 11%, Seck 8%, remainder scattered across 9 candidates), he's probably toast. Though who knows.
Needless to say Sall promises to shorten the term back to five years and to make the term limits rules watertight. We'll see how that plays out over the next decade, I suppose.

[minionofmidas]

Can't find a regional breakdown, but every singe eliminated candidate has endorsed Sall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's just hope Wade doesn't pull a Gbagbo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's just hope Wade doesn't pull a Gbagbo.

Looks like he hasn't. Good.

[minionofmidas]

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"Maturity"? In an 85 year old? More like the opposite - lack of senility.

[minionofmidas]

Youssou N'Dour to join Sall's cabinet.

Wade's share of the vote actually declined between the first and second rounds, from 34.81% to 34.20%.
His raw vote went up by 50k, but turnout increased by 200k to 2.9 million.

[minionofmidas]

Teh map!