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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion  (Read 219880 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #175 on: January 28, 2012, 03:00:57 pm »

Fat chance of a Liberal victory, though I would be very happy to see Kennedy back in the House.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Liberal%2Bbattle%2Bbrews%2Bover%2BLayton%2Briding/6065218/story.html

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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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EarlAW
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« Reply #176 on: January 28, 2012, 06:02:40 pm »

David Miller is a Liberal now?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #177 on: January 29, 2012, 12:12:15 pm »

Major Grit gains.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20120128/nanos-poll-liberals-tories-globe-CTV-20120128/
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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« Reply #178 on: January 29, 2012, 01:08:14 pm »

Nanos is a hack pollster.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #179 on: January 29, 2012, 01:22:08 pm »

I call BS on those Grit Quebec numbers. No way are they top dog here. And they won't get it by whining about the gun registry either.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #180 on: January 29, 2012, 02:22:30 pm »

Shafia trial: GUILTY.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2012/01/29/shafia-sunday.html
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #181 on: January 29, 2012, 05:31:08 pm »

Nanos is a hack pollster.
I call BS on those Grit Quebec numbers. No way are they top dog here. And they won't get it by whining about the gun registry either.
Here is something I said on Blunt Objects
Quote
This is not directed at the above, or, at anyone in particular, but rather at everyone, and, I will say it in allcaps.

INDIVIDUAL POLLS ARE MEANINGLESS. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IS POLLING AVERAGES FROM AT LEAST 5 DIFFERENT POLLS FROM AT LEAST 5 DIFFERENT COMPANIES. - AND IF YOU NEED A COMPARISON, YOU NEED AT LEAST 5 OTHER DIFFERENT POLLS FROM AT LEAST 5 OTHER DIFFERENT COMPANIES TO BE CERTAIN.

I've tried to say that subtly for the past number of years, but a little allcaps cant hurt.

A note that the 5 companies from your second set CAN indeed be the same as the 5 companies from your first set. And if there are only 4 companies, or 3 etc doing polls for your province, then use what you got. PEI often only has 2 companies doing polls at election time, but the rule of golden 5's still holds, you really need at least 5 different polls to get a true average, even if you are forced to use polls from the same company. Also date is important, anything going back too far ruins it.

Put in simple terms:
One poll is meaningless
Two polls from the same company are meaningless
Two polls from different companies mean a LITTLE
three polls from different companies mean more, etc etc et
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #182 on: January 29, 2012, 05:33:29 pm »

NDP has been on a middling decline since October, so the trend is clearly established. I won't believe the Grits are in second nationally (and definitely not first in Quebec) until we see more data.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #183 on: January 29, 2012, 09:27:15 pm »

This is a logical extension of their oilsands policy, so we appreciate you coming around.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2012/01/29/19310301.html
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #184 on: January 30, 2012, 02:40:14 am »

Thank GOD that the Liberals are finally putting the breaks on this stupid move to the left.

Harper calls us left-wing once, and Liberals are like "yea, we are left wing!"
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #185 on: January 30, 2012, 03:14:18 pm »

Leger confirms the NDP Quebec decline, though it's now a 29-29 tie with the BQ. Liberals 16, Tories 14.

QP today: More exchanges on Gateway, pensions and F-35s. Finley pwned Brison when he attacked us from the left on pensions, noting that the Liberals had voted against income-splitting and several other boosts to senior programs. I need not say who was the real LOTO and who had the title today, that certainly hasn't changed in 6 weeks.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #186 on: January 30, 2012, 03:28:09 pm »

Note to Dippers: Put Laverdiere in Foreign Affairs, where she belongs.

Note to Grits: Check your voting records before critiquing other people's. This isn't the first time Brison lost an exchange with Finley because he didn't check his voting record- surprising considering his reputation for thoroughness.

Note to my fellow Tories: Don't attack Grits from the left on deficit issues, as the PM did in an exchange with Rae today.
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
MaxQue
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« Reply #187 on: January 30, 2012, 04:07:08 pm »

Oh, surprise!

Liberals were caught being inconsistent.
Not surprising when you campaign on the left and govern at the right.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #188 on: January 30, 2012, 04:32:50 pm »

No, in this case they were consistent- they voted to our left, attacked us from the left, Finley counterattacked from the centre. It just surprised me coming from Brison of all people. Usually he critiques us from the right on fiscal issues, which I welcome.


Liberals/energy: Heh, this is wishy-washy compared to 3 years ago when Trudeau came out for the oilsands as a "cornerstone of our economy."

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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #189 on: January 30, 2012, 09:03:40 pm »

More on pensions.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/30/john-ivison-tories-flat-footed-on-pension-reform/

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/01/30/andrew-coyne-stephen-harpers-long-overdue-talk-about-canadas-pension-crisis/
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #190 on: January 30, 2012, 10:11:39 pm »

For once, I completely disagree. PQ resurgence has more to do with Marois winning her leadership wars and CAQ becoming "meh" than anything the federal parties have done.

http://www.thestar.com/article/1123762--hebert-pq-poses-peril-as-bad-news-budget-looms
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« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #191 on: January 31, 2012, 10:53:07 am »

I won't link, but since That Place has done a projection based on the two new polls, can someone here do one with their own model?
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #192 on: January 31, 2012, 01:50:54 pm »

Yes, give me 5 15 minutes
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #193 on: January 31, 2012, 02:06:51 pm »

atlantic
Lib-16
CPC-9
NDP-7

Quebec
NDP-34
Lib-21
BQ-12
CPC-8

Ontario
CPC-51
Lib-41
NDP-14

Prairies
CPC-37
NDP-12
Lib-7

BC
CPC-19
NDP-11
Lib-5
Grn-1

TR (unchanged)
CPC-2
NDP-1

CANADA
CPC-126
Lib-90
NDP-79
BQ-12
Grn-1


To replicate the BC results, go to

and put in .57 for the CPC, NDP, and Grn

COMING UP: QUEBEC MAP
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TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #194 on: January 31, 2012, 02:14:18 pm »




Yes Outremont.
Yes Laurier.

...According to the raw math.
I expect that both would be retained by the NDP given the candidates and their stature. The ElectoMatic allowed me to make individual riding adjustments, but the forecaster does not.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #195 on: February 01, 2012, 01:12:26 pm »

Senator Boisvenu (a stupid guy whose daughters has been killed and became a "victims rights campaigner", even if he doesn't make consensus at all, because he doesn't give a damn about victims, he only cares about vengeance and honestly needs a therapy, not a policital office) said than "each murderer should have a rope in his cell".

I think he should retire and take a therapy and stop tarnishing his name in the public place, because it looks pathetic and quite sad.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #196 on: February 01, 2012, 01:18:05 pm »

2011 fundraising: 1) Tories ...... 2) Grits 3) Dippers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tories-lead-fundraising-race-while-liberals-get-a-cash-boost/article2322575/
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #197 on: February 01, 2012, 03:30:27 pm »

Pensions, jets, and more pensions.

Today's notes:

Finley is underrated and should get promoted at the next shuffle. Same goes for Raitt and Ambrose.

NDP needs to develop a B-team in their A-team's absence. Of the frosh, only Boulerice has solidly established himself as an A-teamer.

Still don't understand why the PM attacks from the left on deficit issues.

Kirsty Duncan is annoying as all hell.

Put Trudeau back on the frontbench.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
MaxQue
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« Reply #198 on: February 01, 2012, 03:51:33 pm »

Lisa Raitt?

Mrs. Cancer is sexy?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #199 on: February 01, 2012, 04:06:41 pm »

Eh, one minor gaffe. (Remember Honourgate?) Harper's female ministers are generally underrated, and none of them sit on P&P.

More thoughts...

In retrospect, Fantino was a much better candidate than minister.

Give Oda a committee chairmanship as a prelude to retirement, and if that useless ministry is to be kept give it to Alexander.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
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