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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion  (Read 223060 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #225 on: February 10, 2012, 04:54:44 pm »

The overall trend is believable, but I can't see where the Quebec Grit bubble would be coming from. As I've written before, they have nothing on the ground* and haven't invested any real effort here. In terms of seats, I'd expect their return to the 2006/8 status quo ante (13 seats, 16%), but not much more than that.

Nationally the trend has been repeatedly confirmed. Bob Rae is LOTO in all but name and more often than not the Liberal Shadow Cabinet outguns their NDP counterpart. Once the NDP A-team returns and they get a new leader it will be basically an even match.

If you want my whole spiel on the Grits' Quebec woes, 'tis earlier in the thread.

*Rae has promised to do a full-scale tour later this year and Trudeau usually does quarterly speaking tours. Neither of which are organizational work...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #226 on: February 10, 2012, 05:48:53 pm »

Pensions, trade, hidden agenda.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #227 on: February 11, 2012, 03:42:36 pm »

In BC, the Dippers extend their lead over the Grits to 16, 42-26-19.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/Latest+poll+predicts+voters+would+toss+Liberals+election+held+today/6045993/story.html
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Holmes
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« Reply #228 on: February 12, 2012, 09:44:54 am »

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #229 on: February 12, 2012, 04:11:36 pm »

Hudak wins his leadership review.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1129916--at-tory-leadership-review-tim-hudak-s-reinvention-pledge-wins-votes-cohn
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #230 on: February 13, 2012, 12:52:26 pm »

Hasn't it always been this way though? Mutual indifference or near-venomous hostility? I for one don't think the former is at all a bad thing. Anyone who thinks love and roses will ever bloosom is, IMO, either ignorant or naive.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/the-two-solitudes-get-more-solitary/article2334620/

*Facepalm*

http://www.thespec.com/opinion/columns/article/670051--trudeau-s-boxing-bout-a-big-risk
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #231 on: February 13, 2012, 03:13:52 pm »

Gun registry vote on Wednesday. I assume the rural opposition members will be whipped as usual.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/13/pol-gun-registry-third-reading.html
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #232 on: February 13, 2012, 05:59:53 pm »

Today's QP: aboriginal issues and pensions. Can't wait till the budget comes down to shift this boring narrative.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #233 on: February 13, 2012, 06:20:59 pm »

Well, they talk about actual problems.

The whole Native system needs a majot overhull and government, despite what it is saying, will mess with pensions in a way or another.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #234 on: February 13, 2012, 06:47:33 pm »

Attawapiskat aside, I'm quite happy with the government's aboriginal policy. Harper's taking an etapiste approach which might finally bring results. As for pensions, no one knows for sure when the changes will take place. Though the Grits beclown themselves by attacking changes they themselves proposed back in the '90s. Rae is making a potentially very dangerous strategic error, looking ahead to 2015, if he decides that the votes lost are Orange rather than Blue Liberals. For now it's a correctable tactical error.
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« Reply #235 on: February 13, 2012, 06:54:15 pm »


Sweet Jesus. We almost have more than the combined right wing vote.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #236 on: February 13, 2012, 10:13:37 pm »

Vic Toews is saying than people opposing the new Internet law, autorising police to get IP addresses without the authorisation of a judge, are allies of paedophiles.

Roque, I hope you don't agree with that?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #237 on: February 13, 2012, 10:39:31 pm »

Of course not. I was just as appalled when Harper personally accused Martin of being soft on child porn back in '04.

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MaxQue
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« Reply #238 on: February 13, 2012, 11:52:31 pm »

Anyways, that kind of argument isn't good, this week.

Opposition can just answer "By opposing gun control, you are the allies of gun killers".
Not great, but, the level would be the same, i.e. dismal.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #239 on: February 14, 2012, 12:13:21 am »

Unfortunately some registry supporters came uncomfortably close to doing just that in December when no Tory MPs were invited to the Polytechnique commemoration. Not just the usual suspects, but normally level-headed MPs like Bennett and Trudeau.

My predictions for next month:

Pensions: Continues as usual, the precise details are announced at budget time. The debate dies a slow death and won't be remembered by summer recess.

Aboriginal issues: Fade slowly unless something else crops up.

F-35; Continues intermittently as it has for the past 2 years.

Le Match: Draw. Though if forced to choose a winner, I would put my pinky on the scale for Brazeau simply because he's more experienced.
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Hash
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« Reply #240 on: February 14, 2012, 09:28:28 am »

Vic Toews is saying than people opposing the new Internet law, autorising police to get IP addresses without the authorisation of a judge, are allies of paedophiles.

Roque, I hope you don't agree with that?

It seems as if this government has just decided to brand all those who disagree with them as "pedos", "radicals", "socialists" or "anti-Canadian". Is this for real?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #241 on: February 14, 2012, 10:19:01 am »

You forgot "extremist ecologist".
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #242 on: February 14, 2012, 10:21:58 am »
« Edited: February 14, 2012, 10:24:21 am by RogueBeaver »

Duceppe already said yesterday he has no regrets.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201202/13/01-4495538-lenquete-sur-gilles-duceppe-elargie.php

I'll be generous and say it was a rare bit of RL trolling.

http://voir.ca/josee-legault/2012/02/12/dun-trudeau-a-lautre/

RL trolling indeed. This happens about once a year with him- last year it was Honourgate.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/02/14/scary-hypotheticals-2/
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MaxQue
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« Reply #243 on: February 14, 2012, 10:54:10 am »

Well, his view is shared by me and a few people I know.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #244 on: February 14, 2012, 11:13:39 am »

Stephen Harper used a diluted version of that argument in the Firewall Letter. If he'd tweaked it to say "We need all regions to keep our current, moderate, political balance of power" then I'd agree. As the Globe points out, the chances of repealing gay marriage or imposing abortion restrictions are somewhere between zero and nil, so it isn't like this hypothesis will ever be tested. The rest of that interview is mostly restating that leadership will have to wait until his kids are older. In practice, his ambition to renew the family lease on Sussex is entirely dependent on how successful Bob Rae is 3 years from now.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/would-justin-trudeau-separate-from-stephen-harpers-canada-maybe/article2337672/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #245 on: February 14, 2012, 11:17:01 am »

On another note, good news from MoD.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/mackay-secures-german-staging-base-for-post-afghan-missions/article2337581/


Not while Dad rules Queen's Park.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1130769--drummond-report-sweeping-education-reforms-recommended
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MaxQue
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« Reply #246 on: February 14, 2012, 11:32:17 am »

Stephen Harper used a diluted version of that argument in the Firewall Letter. If he'd tweaked it to say "We need all regions to keep our current, moderate, political balance of power" then I'd agree. As the Globe points out, the chances of repealing gay marriage or imposing abortion restrictions are somewhere between zero and nil, so it isn't like this hypothesis will ever be tested. The rest of that interview is mostly restating that leadership will have to wait until his kids are older. In practice, his ambition to renew the family lease on Sussex is entirely dependent on how successful Bob Rae is 3 years from now.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/would-justin-trudeau-separate-from-stephen-harpers-canada-maybe/article2337672/

I know that. My parents were sure than he would try to screw Quebec because it didn't voted for him.

I said them than no. Harper isn't dumb. He is a fantastic strategist. He knows than screwing Quebec could lead to independance and than messing with gay marriage and abortion would make him lose the moderate vote and would lead to a Tory defeat in 2015.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #247 on: February 14, 2012, 03:05:39 pm »

Crime bills, jets and constituency issues.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #248 on: February 14, 2012, 03:43:44 pm »

Whaddaya know? Dad supports C-15.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1131050--mandatory-minimum-sentences-draw-support-from-dalton-mcguinty
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Smid
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« Reply #249 on: February 14, 2012, 06:28:27 pm »


I hear that he's a brilliant chess player and approaches political strategy with a similar "ten moves ahead" long-term strategic view.
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