Canada General Discussion

[DC Al Fine]

QP was also hilarious: Trudeau needs remedial debating lessons, because in a leaders' debate that would've been a self-nuke given how badly Moore pwned him (most non-Grits were literally facepalming)

Do you have a link or can you give a recap of what they said?

[DC Al Fine]

Unanimous vote to adjourn for the summer! First convention, then shuffle. Whew.

Thank goodness!

Went on youtube to look up a clip from the 2011 election debates and made the mistake of reading the comments. How unedifying .

[DC Al Fine]

Kind of surprised that Harper's approval rate is that high in Quebec.

[DC Al Fine]

RCMP is seizing the election returns of 9 Tory MPs in the Duffy investigation, and they're also formally investigating Mac Harb.

More polls: Leger's federal pegs LPC 37, CPC 29, NDP 21. 46-26-15-8 in Quebec.

That's baaaaaddd for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Is there any hope for the NDP? Or do they just have to bet on Justin self destructing into a ball of vanity?

Yes. Trudeau became leader like 2 months ago. Let the honeymoon wear off and we'll see where we are at.

[DC Al Fine]

My provincial EDA is having their nomination meeting tonight. Travis Price of pink t-shirt bullying fame will be nominated by acclamation. Looking forward to some excellent ribs at the fundraising portion of the event as well.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories are the centrist party in Nova Scotia, correct? (Liberals are the right of centre party?)

It's indicative of the NDP going downhill that an anti-bullying person would run for the Tories instead of the NDP.

There's not a huge difference but yes the Liberals are slightly to the right of the Tories in Nova Scotia.

The NDP have long been perceived as soft on bullying, and this has been exacerbated by the Retaeh Parsons case. An anti-bullying NDP candidate would probably be given a hard time.

When we vetted Price as a candidate, he emphasized the failure of school administrations to take decisive action against bullying as one of the main issues he deals with, which indicates to me that he favours  the Tory approach to to crime as well.

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP is soft on bullying? That really seems bizarre to me.

Soft in the sense of failing to punish offenders. Obviously, they are the loudest of the parties in terms of promoting bullying education in schools etc.

[DC Al Fine]

Spoke with a staffer at the fundraiser tonight. We've been doing regional polling. Apparently NDP support has gone down the toilet disproportionately outside of Halifax, but is holding up surprisingly well in Halifax. Some resilience on the NDP's part will help them hold seats in the Halifax suburbs.

[DC Al Fine]

Spoke with a staffer at the fundraiser tonight. We've been doing regional polling. Apparently NDP support has gone down the toilet disproportionately outside of Halifax, but is holding up surprisingly well in Halifax. Some resilience on the NDP's part will help them hold seats in the Halifax suburbs.

That makes a lot of sense, actually. It's the only area where the NDP has won seats federally recently. We saw the NDP do worse in some areas in the last federal election.

Indeed. In 2009 the NDP racked up some massive majorities in rural seats (Queens, Pictou East, Pictou West, Hants East etc.) that are not really traditional NDP strongholds. It will be interested to see how those seats hold up in the next election.

By my count, you've got 8 completely safe seats in the Halifax area, and another 2 in Cape Breton. Plus you should hold onto Hants East no matter what happens. 11 seats is my worst case scenario for the NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Alexa for leader!

...

I'm still hoping the polls are wrong a la BC/AB, but they probably aren't. Also hoping Nova Scotians realize the NDP had to make some tough choices for the better.

Man, she quit that job like 20 years ago .

I've found myself agreeing with the provincial NDP a lot of decisions. There is still a lot of stuff preventing me from voting NDP, but at least Dexter knows that NS has some major structural issues that need resolving... unlike most of my peers

[DC Al Fine]

In any case, if the NDP loses in Nova Scotia, that'll mean a rise in the federal NDP vote there come next election.

Maybe, but the way things are going there will more likely just be a "trend" rather than an actual rise.

Meh. The NDP has been remarkably stable federally since 1997; 31%, 24%, 28%, 30%, 29%, 30%.

Alexa for leader!

...

I'm still hoping the polls are wrong a la BC/AB, but they probably aren't. Also hoping Nova Scotians realize the NDP had to make some tough choices for the better.

Man, she quit that job like 20 years ago .

I've found myself agreeing with the provincial NDP a lot of decisions. There is still a lot of stuff preventing me from voting NDP, but at least Dexter knows that NS has some major structural issues that need resolving... unlike most of my peers

As for Alexa, she should try and get the job back. Only person that can save the party at this point, I think. Remember, when she was leader she was the only NDP MLA with no hope of even forming official opposition. Now she would be in a position to be Premier.

That's partially her own doing. The NDP had 4 seats when she was elected (and a shot at 2 more) in Cape Breton. She was the victor in a Chretien/Martin style civil war between the Halifax & Cape Breton wings of the party. She forced out 1/2 the caucus. One of the expelled MLA's formed his own party eventually joined the Liberals and took half of the NDP vote in Cape Breton with him

Alexa did a good job federally, but she definitely had some growing pains as a provincial leader. Granted, she's probably much better suited to today's NDP than the NDP in 1980.

[DC Al Fine]

New Nanos poll.

Liberals 34, Conservatives 29, NDP 25, Green 6, Bloc 4.

Atlantic: Liberal 40, NDP 35, Conservatives 22, Green 4 (caution, small sample)
Québec: Liberal 35, NDP 30, Bloc 15, Conservatives 13, Green 8
Ontario: Liberal 41, Conservative 29, NDP 22, Green 7
Prairies: Conservatives 54, Liberal 25, NDP 17, Green 3
BC: Conservatives 31, NDP 30, Liberals 28, Green 11

BC & Quebec are doing to be brutal dogfights.

[DC Al Fine]

TC2 has the Nanos projection: 132 Grits, 98 Tories, 77 Dippers. The seat breakdowns are very interesting, to say the least.

Why aren't they doing projections with the new seats?

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeaumania still alive and well in the Atlantic provinces.

With those numbers even MacKay is vulnerable.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus is junk.

And they don't like releasing their regional numbers

[DC Al Fine]

Probably a silly question, but should Christie Clark end up being deeply unpopular at the time of the next federal election, will Justin Trudeau be trying to run away from the BC Liberals or can voters actively separate the two, rather different, entities?

They are very different parties. The BC Liberals get more votes from federal Tories than from the federal Liberals.

Indeed. Provincial parties vary widely in how close they are to their federal parties. The BC & Liberals are almost completely severed from their federal counterparts and the voters treat them that way.

[DC Al Fine]

Marjory LeBreton is retiring as Government Leader in the Senate, she's facing mandatory retirement before the election.

Who would take her cabinet spot?

[DC Al Fine]

No idea. Weirdly in his statement, Harper says that he'll be consulting the Senate caucus before naming her replacement. Sun reporting that the next Senate leader will not be a member of Cabinet, which may be a first. CBC has an interactive shuffle game but like the Globe's earlier one 'tis incomplete. Particularly on Atlantic possibilities. We still don't know what's going on with Flaherty.

Should know in a week or so.

[DC Al Fine]

Apparently the objectivist Freedom Party will be running former Tory candidate and guy with a famous nephew Al Gretzky in London West.

[DC Al Fine]

Couillard could run in Roberval of all places. Montreal, Quebec City, now ROQ.

Qu'est-ce que c'est le f**k?

[DC Al Fine]

I see Margaret Wente is up to her old journalistic standards. Creating quite a bit of controversy.

My personal favourite Wente incident is when she wrote columns about how religious conservatism is going to die in Canada and religious conservatism is going to take over Canada in the same month.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah, she's been a joke for eons, even without the serial plagiarism. And as usual it isn't remotely original, managing to offend both men and women. Both male and female journos in my Twitter feed were snarking this morning about it. The only Globe people I read are Perreaux, Ibbitson and Radwanski. Don't get me started on Simpson, who's stuck in a 1992 timewarp. Their editorial last Friday was a perfect self parody of elitist Moderate Heroism.

I don't read Simpson. What do you mean by "stuck in a 1992 timewarp"?

[DC Al Fine]

Grenier says Trudeaumania is wearing off. Also, the Greens could pick up a 2nd seat next election.

[DC Al Fine]

HuffPo confirms what Ivison hinted 3 months ago: Poilievre will enter Cabinet. Dunno what it will be, but an economic post would make most sense.

About time. Pollivere is more competent than half of cabinet. Look at the people who made it before him... Oda, Guergis, O'Connor?!