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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion  (Read 223984 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #150 on: January 25, 2012, 12:56:56 pm »

In seats this means...?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #151 on: January 25, 2012, 03:26:35 pm »

I dont remember them  having a poll where the NDP was ahead of the Tories?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #152 on: January 25, 2012, 08:10:16 pm »
« Edited: January 25, 2012, 08:22:52 pm by Χahar »


I was curious, so I applied a uniform regional swing to each riding. I got these results:



In other words:

Conservative: 119 seats (-47), 32.2% (-7.4%)
New Democratic: 105 seats (+2), 28.8% (-1.8%)
Liberal: 75 seats (+41), 25.2% (+6.3%)
Bloc Québécois: 8 seats (+4), 5.7% (-0.3%)
Green: 1 seat (nc), 7.1% (+3.2%)
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #153 on: January 25, 2012, 08:42:14 pm »

Thankfully the election isn't for another 4 years. For now it looks like the only way to knock the NDP back down is for the BQ vote to rise again. Not enough to win seats, but enough for we Tories to do well in ROQ by sneaking up the middle.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #154 on: January 25, 2012, 09:36:25 pm »

Remember, this is going to be out of 338 seats, Xahar.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #155 on: January 25, 2012, 09:44:41 pm »

Remember, this is going to be out of 338 seats, Xahar.

I would need notional results to calculate that.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #156 on: January 25, 2012, 11:10:24 pm »

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #157 on: January 25, 2012, 11:16:37 pm »

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

Agreed, but what seat configuration would your model divine from these numbers?
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #158 on: January 26, 2012, 12:48:26 am »

My model has the problem of not yet being complete Tongue

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php

The easiest way to do it is to go to this link.

Don't do any swing, just reduce each party below 1.000

Then re-balance each province, so that the pop vote equals the poll.

In reality, the whole ElectoMatic is just a fancy machine that does what I've just explained. I built it to save myself time and so I could do these calcs offline.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #159 on: January 26, 2012, 12:54:35 am »

Until then I trust my co-blogger
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/hd-poll-32-29-25.html
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #160 on: January 26, 2012, 01:19:00 am »

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

Oh, of course. It's purely for fun. I even made this map:

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Smid
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« Reply #161 on: January 26, 2012, 04:46:12 am »

The Liberals being forced to prop up a minority government as the third party would be disaster for them. They'd either alienate progressive voters or non-progressive voters, either way, very difficult for them. On the other hand, a Liberal resurgence, displacing the NDP as the dominant non-Tory party, is the easiest way for the Conservatives to slip across the line for a second majority government.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #162 on: January 26, 2012, 07:04:24 am »

If the Liberals were to sell themselves properly - IE as the pill to keep the government sane, whatever it's stripe - then this could gain support in the party. I would certainly back the idea.
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Hash
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« Reply #163 on: January 26, 2012, 07:50:49 am »

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

Oh, of course. It's purely for fun. I even made this map:



It's sweet to see my riding painted red. Just the thought of there being a tiny possibility of replacing my retarded MP with anybody else is pleasing.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #164 on: January 26, 2012, 07:57:10 am »

Hey, at least you don't have a carpetbagging orange poteau as your MP.

This Duceppe scandal expands daily. Now it's shades of Jim Wright/Newt Gingrich.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/01/26/duceppe-used-commons-cash-to-fund-vanity-book
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Holmes
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« Reply #165 on: January 26, 2012, 08:06:47 am »

lol, NDP winning seven seats in Saskatchewan? No way.

It's sweet to see my riding painted red. Just the thought of there being a tiny possibility of replacing my retarded MP with anybody else is pleasing.

Grits would benefit a lot from tying the Conservatives in Ontario. If Rae is chosen as leader, I don't think that'll ever happen, at least not in the next election.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #166 on: January 26, 2012, 06:19:35 pm »

Today I made a little chart concerning electoral cooperation between the Liberals and NDP:



If every Liberal voter had voted for a combined Liberal/NDP outfit in 2011, that party would have won 186 seats to 121 Conservative. If all of them had voted Tory, they would have 224 seats and there would only be 81 Liberal/NDP seats. If half had voted Liberal/NDP and half Conservative, there would have been 190 Conservative seats and 116 Liberal/NDP seats. I think the chart is pretty straightforward.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #167 on: January 26, 2012, 06:25:20 pm »

I would not support a merged party with the NDP unless it had really moderate and centrist ideals. I'd rather support the Conservatives.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #168 on: January 26, 2012, 07:00:14 pm »

I would not support a merged party with the NDP unless it had really moderate and centrist ideals. I'd rather support the Conservatives.

Yes, and assuming over 20% of Liberal voters agreed with you in this matter (which seems almost certain to me), such a merger wouldn't have prevented a Conservative majority in the last election.
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bgwah
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« Reply #169 on: January 26, 2012, 07:03:49 pm »

How did you calculate that?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #170 on: January 26, 2012, 07:09:35 pm »

Hey, Blue Grits are always more than welcome in our tent. Among other things, imagine the NDP Quebec caucus sharing a caucus room with Dion and Trudeau. Not a recipe for harmony, methinks.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #171 on: January 26, 2012, 07:40:23 pm »


I calculated the winner of each constituency in 101 cases (adding 0% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 100% to the NDP, then adding 1% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 99% to the NDP, then 2%, then 3%, etc.) and summed the results and put them in a table, which I graphed. With the aid of a spreadsheet, it only took two hours. I'm very pleased with how it turned out.

If anyone cares, I can send the spreadsheet.
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Smid
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« Reply #172 on: January 26, 2012, 10:49:55 pm »


I calculated the winner of each constituency in 101 cases (adding 0% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 100% to the NDP, then adding 1% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 99% to the NDP, then 2%, then 3%, etc.) and summed the results and put them in a table, which I graphed. With the aid of a spreadsheet, it only took two hours. I'm very pleased with how it turned out.

If anyone cares, I can send the spreadsheet.

Beautiful work!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #173 on: January 28, 2012, 01:18:04 pm »

I certainly hope Harper moves ahead with this.

http://www.thestar.com/article/1122814--prime-minister-stephen-harper-vow-to-reform-retirement-benefits-may-upset-some-canadians

Ex-ce-llent.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1122176--free-trade-british-pm-david-cameron-urges-eu-to-obtain-speedy-pact-with-canadacameron-wants-a-free-trade-deal-by-year-end-to-open-up-export-markets-for-the-european-union-s-27-member-countries

Huh?

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1122573--hebert-fight-over-the-2012-federal-budget-will-take-place-on-the-larger-stage-of-public-opinion
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MaxQue
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« Reply #174 on: January 28, 2012, 01:55:06 pm »

I oppose free trade with if EU doesn't back off on imposing the same rules than in EU on state monopolies and obligations to deal with the private sector for all.

In my city, the right-wing mayor cancelled the garbage collection and the snow removal contracts with the private (the first because they were charging inflated prices, the second because the quality of their job was very low and there was having much complains). Under EU rules, cities would be forced to ask to the private to do it.

For retirement reform, well, hey, good luck getting retirees' votes next time. He is underestimating the retiree lobby power. He won't be able to shut them as he do with all opponents. And he can't do as he did with natives and ecologists, calling them ennemies of Canada.
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