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  Canada General Discussion
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion  (Read 224212 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #450 on: April 24, 2012, 10:04:19 am »

I think the federal Liberals are associated with some of the provincial parties, ftr. I believe they're all in the Maritimes, though.


New CROP poll of Quebec has NDP at 51%, Bloc at 18%, Liberals at 15%, Conservatives at 12%. So which ridings wouldn't go NDP? Mount Royal? Maybe Saint-Laurent-Cartierville? Beauce?

Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Beauce, Papineau, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel. That's it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #451 on: April 24, 2012, 11:00:09 am »

Anybody care to give me a quick rundown of politics in Canada? Like what are the major parties, what the political geography is like (where are the given parties strong and vice versa) and recent changes. All I know is that the Conservatives are in power an they do really well in Alberta. I'd really like to know more. 

There are five parties with MPs elected federally - the Conservatives (with a majority), the left-wing NDP (Official Opposition), the slightly-to-the-left-of-centre Liberals (were Opposition until last year, when they lost most of their seats, including their leader's), the Bloc Quebecois (platform is independence for Quebec), and the Greens hold a seat in BC.

With the exception of the NDP, provincial parties aren't affiliated with their federal counterparts, I believe, and while the NDP did best in Quebec federally, there is no provincial NDP in that province. This will lead you to correctly infer that provincial and national elections aren't held concurrently.

There are numerous maps in the International Elections gallery, and discussions about the politics in the International Elections board, just a few boards up.

Earl has a great website, which you should be able to find through google, although there are links in the Alberta election thread, too, he calls it Canadian Election Atlas, and hosts it at blogspot. The506, another poster on here, has a really good webpage, too, but I can't remember the link.

So the maps make sense, Conservatives (Tories) are blue, the NDP (Dippers) are orange, the Liberals (Grits) are red, the Bloc are light blue/aqua and the Greens are, well, green (except in provincial politics, where it is the various conservative parties - Wildrose, the Saskatchewan Party or the Yukon Party).

Oh, and in case you hadn't seen, the NDP stands for New Democrats.

Thanks a lot!
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Holmes
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« Reply #452 on: April 24, 2012, 11:55:45 am »

I think the federal Liberals are associated with some of the provincial parties, ftr. I believe they're all in the Maritimes, though.


New CROP poll of Quebec has NDP at 51%, Bloc at 18%, Liberals at 15%, Conservatives at 12%. So which ridings wouldn't go NDP? Mount Royal? Maybe Saint-Laurent-Cartierville? Beauce?

Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Beauce, Papineau, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel. That's it.

I think Papineau would fall, but not Mount Royal.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #453 on: April 24, 2012, 12:04:01 pm »

I think the federal Liberals are associated with some of the provincial parties, ftr. I believe they're all in the Maritimes, though.


New CROP poll of Quebec has NDP at 51%, Bloc at 18%, Liberals at 15%, Conservatives at 12%. So which ridings wouldn't go NDP? Mount Royal? Maybe Saint-Laurent-Cartierville? Beauce?

Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Beauce, Papineau, Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel. That's it.

I think Papineau would fall, but not Mount Royal.

Trudeau doubled his margin last time. Cotler barely won. Don't underestimate Justin as a campaigner. Especially not when he runs on C&C- constituency services and charisma. Cotler was so shaken that he almost immediately decided that 2011 was his last election, and this is an open secret in the Anglo community.  Maybe Coderre survives in Bourassa as well.

That said, I'm discounting what the polls say for at least another 15-18 months. Remember that Mulcair could win 70 seats in Quebec while Harper still wins a majority.
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« Reply #454 on: April 24, 2012, 04:33:22 pm »

Papineau can go NDP with a strong campaign.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #455 on: April 24, 2012, 05:55:19 pm »

I wonder how the new Ontario budget deal will play out politically.  Seems to me like a modest victory for the NDP, and also a precedent for Liberals NDP working together maybe. 
    It might also energize the left wing base, with this example that voting does matter, that in fact politicians will sometimes vote to tax the rich.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #456 on: April 24, 2012, 06:11:02 pm »

I wonder how the new Ontario budget deal will play out politically.  Seems to me like a modest victory for the NDP, and also a precedent for Liberals NDP working together maybe. 
    It might also energize the left wing base, with this example that voting does matter, that in fact politicians will sometimes vote to tax the rich.

Short-term boost for the NDP.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #457 on: April 25, 2012, 05:08:41 am »

I agree with Rogue for Mount Royal, not for Papineau.

It's well-known than it's Cotler last term, and, if he leaves, Conservatives should take the seat, except if Liberals manages to find a very good candidate.

For Papineau, Trudeau would win, but that's because polls are saying than Liberals are still leading with non-Franco Québécois.
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LastVoter
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« Reply #458 on: April 25, 2012, 05:00:16 pm »

Anybody have a good 1945 federal election map with ridings?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #459 on: April 25, 2012, 06:38:27 pm »

No, but I do have the annual Hill Times survey.

http://www.hilltimes.com/sexy-and-savvy/hill-life-people/2012/04/23/baird-voted-best-cabinet-minister-in-question-period/30519?page_requested=1
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EarlAW
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« Reply #460 on: April 25, 2012, 10:13:54 pm »

Anybody have a good 1945 federal election map with ridings?

Why?
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LastVoter
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« Reply #461 on: April 25, 2012, 10:15:12 pm »

I want to see where CCF won seats outside of SK.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #462 on: April 25, 2012, 10:16:23 pm »

I want to see where CCF won seats outside of SK.

Well, here's the results by riding: http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Gres&genElection=20&ridProvince=0&submit1=Search

If you want to know where the ridings are, you can click on the names and it will give you the boundary descriptions.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #463 on: April 25, 2012, 10:24:08 pm »

Cariboo - Central BC
Kootenay East- Eastern BC
Skeena - Northern BC
Vancouver East - self explanatory
Churchill - Northern Manitoba
Dauphin - Western Manitoba
Selkirk - Eastern Manitoba
Winnipeg North - self explanatory
Winnipeg North Centre - " "
Cape Breton South - Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia

Ridings coloured based on who currently holds the seats
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LastVoter
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« Reply #464 on: April 26, 2012, 01:26:57 am »

Ontario results are a  little depressing after reading the wiki article. I was hoping there would be more PC vs CCF races, I could only find one.
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Hash
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« Reply #465 on: April 26, 2012, 07:14:21 am »

I think that I do have the maps for the Ontario boundaries from WWI up until the 1950s, so I could at least do ON.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #466 on: April 26, 2012, 09:58:07 am »

I think that I do have the maps for the Ontario boundaries from WWI up until the 1950s, so I could at least do ON.

We're still waiting to see these maps, Hash Wink
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Holmes
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« Reply #467 on: April 27, 2012, 08:58:41 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2012, 09:58:03 am by Holmes »

Nanos has new numbers.

Conservatives - 34.7
NDP - 32.4
Liberals - 23.3
Green - 4.2
BQ - 3.9


Hmm. NDP has passed the Grits in Ontario in a Nanos poll.

New Forum poll as well.

NDP - 36
Conservatives - 33
Liberals - 22
BQ - 6
Greens - 2


pst liberal supports go ndp.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #468 on: April 27, 2012, 04:30:22 pm »

The crosstabs on the Nanos poll seem odd. The NDP's ahead in the Atlantic provinces but nowhere near the Tories in British Columbia?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #469 on: April 27, 2012, 04:33:33 pm »

Eh, weirdness can happen with that type of thing. I remember a poll breakdown from 2003 or 2004 that had the LibDems leading in the Midlands. So... er... yeah. Basically.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #470 on: April 27, 2012, 04:33:46 pm »

The crosstabs on the Nanos poll seem odd. The NDP's ahead in the Atlantic provinces but nowhere near the Tories in British Columbia?

This is what I hate about our pollsters- such wide variations.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #471 on: April 27, 2012, 04:47:39 pm »

What's the highest percentage the NDP have ever had in a federal VI poll?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #472 on: April 27, 2012, 04:49:45 pm »

Broadbent had numbers with the NDP in first during Mulroney's first term a couple of times. Dunno what the precise numbers were.
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Holmes
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« Reply #473 on: April 27, 2012, 05:25:44 pm »

In '87, right?

I'm not gonna put too much stock in a single poll's regional crosstabs. The only thing we can be sure of is that the Conservatives are doing well in Alberta, NDP is doing well in Quebec and BC, Ontario is in play with slight Torie lead and everything else is up in the air.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #474 on: April 28, 2012, 12:16:35 am »

37% in 1987: http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/politics/parties-leaders/ed-broadbent/ndp-tops-the-polls.html
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