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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion  (Read 223686 times)
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« on: January 06, 2012, 05:50:17 pm »

Glad to see that commitment to Senate reform in action.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2012, 11:14:38 pm »

An elected Senate with an equal number of members from each province would be even less democratic than the current setup, since it would combine undemocratic apportionment with a sense of legitimacy that would allow it to threaten the democratic house. The NDP has the right idea with regard to the Senate.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2012, 01:58:39 am »

Fixed election dates are silly, I agree.

An elected Senate with an equal number of members from each province would be even less democratic than the current setup, since it would combine undemocratic apportionment with a sense of legitimacy that would allow it to threaten the democratic house. The NDP has the right idea with regard to the Senate.

While it wouldn't be less democratic, I wouldn't support PEI getting the same number of Senators as Ontario... that's insane! I would have 100 senators, with 10 regions with 10 Senators each elected by proportional representation.

Western Canada would get 30 Senators, Central Canada would get 60 and Atlantic Canada would get 10.

I wouldn't hate that, but it's unnecessary. The system works fine now with a powerless upper house. Why not just get rid of the upper house altogether?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2012, 04:04:02 pm »

I don't understand why anyone would join the Liberal Party.

No by-elections. The riding shouldn't have to go to the polls for their MP being stupid and crossing the aisle.

They shouldn't get a say about that?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2012, 08:38:16 pm »

There's such a finality to the word "mort".

No by-elections. The riding shouldn't have to go to the polls for their MP being stupid and crossing the aisle.

They shouldn't get a say about that?

So what, a referendum when there's a defection about whether or not there should be a by-election, and then one if they want one?

No, just have a by-election. They're not getting what they voted for, so they ought to have a chance to voice their opinion.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2012, 07:02:36 pm »

My offhand guess would be that the best-known Quebec Liberal would be Trudeau, if only because of the name.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2012, 08:10:16 pm »
« Edited: January 25, 2012, 08:22:52 pm by Χahar »


I was curious, so I applied a uniform regional swing to each riding. I got these results:

Image Link

In other words:

Conservative: 119 seats (-47), 32.2% (-7.4%)
New Democratic: 105 seats (+2), 28.8% (-1.8%)
Liberal: 75 seats (+41), 25.2% (+6.3%)
Bloc Québécois: 8 seats (+4), 5.7% (-0.3%)
Green: 1 seat (nc), 7.1% (+3.2%)
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2012, 09:44:41 pm »

Remember, this is going to be out of 338 seats, Xahar.

I would need notional results to calculate that.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2012, 01:19:00 am »

Uniform swing is the worst way possible to predict canadian elections.

Oh, of course. It's purely for fun. I even made this map:

Image Link
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2012, 06:19:35 pm »

Today I made a little chart concerning electoral cooperation between the Liberals and NDP:

Image Link

If every Liberal voter had voted for a combined Liberal/NDP outfit in 2011, that party would have won 186 seats to 121 Conservative. If all of them had voted Tory, they would have 224 seats and there would only be 81 Liberal/NDP seats. If half had voted Liberal/NDP and half Conservative, there would have been 190 Conservative seats and 116 Liberal/NDP seats. I think the chart is pretty straightforward.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2012, 07:00:14 pm »

I would not support a merged party with the NDP unless it had really moderate and centrist ideals. I'd rather support the Conservatives.

Yes, and assuming over 20% of Liberal voters agreed with you in this matter (which seems almost certain to me), such a merger wouldn't have prevented a Conservative majority in the last election.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2012, 07:40:23 pm »


I calculated the winner of each constituency in 101 cases (adding 0% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 100% to the NDP, then adding 1% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 99% to the NDP, then 2%, then 3%, etc.) and summed the results and put them in a table, which I graphed. With the aid of a spreadsheet, it only took two hours. I'm very pleased with how it turned out.

If anyone cares, I can send the spreadsheet.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2012, 09:57:25 pm »

One of the more interesting things about the 2011 election results was the way the Liberals were killed in Quebec outside Montreal Island. If they have no appeal outside the city, that's not good news for them; even if they rebound in the polls there, that lack of appeal gives them a definite ceiling. There are ridings where they got the sort of numbers that the NDP got in Quebec fifteen years ago.

I think the West will be important for the NDP at the next election, even more than Quebec. The Tories can keep winning by enormous margins in Alberta, but the rest of the Prairies are different, and the NDP is the only real opposition party there. Saskatchewan in particular is one place where I would expect big NDP gains in 2015; the NDP would gain a few seats right away assuming that a fair map is drawn, and voters there won't be voting against a provincial NDP government (like in Manitoba and Nova Scotia this last election), since the SaskTories ought to still be in power.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2012, 04:35:12 pm »

Those numbers smell fishy, Quebec in particular. You're in Quebec; what do you make of them?
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2012, 03:03:03 am »

I'm reminded of Maxime Bernier.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2012, 09:06:48 pm »

Must we call it Vikigate? If we're going to use the name of an American scandal, why not call it Viki Dome? That would be a much better name.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2012, 01:34:15 am »

The Liberal Party is of course Canada's conservative party.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #17 on: March 20, 2012, 12:27:13 am »

I think my favorite part of the article is the way it doesn't actually address the issue. It took me a while to figure out what was going on.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2012, 10:59:46 pm »

The BC numbers are really encouraging, although that seems to arise from dissatisfaction with the BC Liberals as much as anything. The NDP will still be in power in Winnipeg come next election, so I wouldn't expect a good result there.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #19 on: April 20, 2012, 07:50:14 pm »

Of course all the Liberals are for merger; it's the easiest way to get back into power despite the opinion of the electorate.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #20 on: April 27, 2012, 04:30:22 pm »

The crosstabs on the Nanos poll seem odd. The NDP's ahead in the Atlantic provinces but nowhere near the Tories in British Columbia?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2012, 11:30:29 am »

Who do you folk have in mind who would do a better job and are in caucus, but won't run?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2012, 12:50:46 am »

BC is winnable for Dippers. Not so much SK, MB so long as Mulcair keeps parroting McGuinty with talk of "Dutch disease" plus C&T.

I wonder how the NDP will be doing in the polls in BC once the unpopular Liberal government is voted out of office, and an NDP government installed?

That's the problem with looking at these poll numbers; they won't mean anything come 2015, since a provincial NDP government will have been in power for quite some time by then. It's the same deal in Manitoba.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2012, 10:07:01 pm »

It's nothing new, but I don't think that'll ever stop being strange, considering where Canadian socialism comes from.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #24 on: June 11, 2012, 09:36:07 pm »

Earl, stop.
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