Slovakia Parliamentary Election - March 10, 2012

[Tender Branson]

A parliamentary election will take place in Slovakia on 10 March 2012. The election follows the fall of Prime Minister Iveta Radičová's Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Democratic Party-led coalition in October 2011 over a no confidence vote her government failed because of its support for the European Financial Stability Fund.

Background

On 11 October 2011, the National Council of the Slovak Republic, the parliament of Slovakia, voted on whether to approve the expansion of the European Financial Stability Fund. As Slovakia was the last eurozone country to vote on the measure, prime minister Iveta Radičová of the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Democratic Party (SDKÚ) made it a vote of confidence. The motion was called on the grounds, according to the Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party, that Slovakia, the second poorest eurozone country, should not bailout richer countries such as Greece and for bank re-capitalisation. The motion then failed by 21 votes after SaS and Direction – Social Democracy (Smer–SD) abstained.[1][2]

Smer then came to an agreement with the governing coalition to support the measure in what party chairman and former prime minister Robert Fico called "the most important document of this period." He also explained the first round rejection of the measure as "saying 'no' to a rightist government, but we're saying 'yes' to the rescue fund." As per the agreement between the two parties, foreign minister Mikuláš Dzurinda (SDKÚ) said that, in return for Smer's support, a snap election would be called: "We decided that as the first point of [Thursday's] parliamentary session, we will work on a proposal to shorten the voting period, with the goal of organising an election on 10 March. Immediately after [13 October or 14 October] we will debate proposals related to the EFSF."[3] On 13 October, following pressures from the European Union, which were in turn warned by the United States and China to get its finances in order, the motion was passed by a vote of 114–30 with 3 abstentions.[4]

In the run-up to the election, the Gorilla scandal (secret recordings of leading politicians in 2005–2006 showing political corruption) shook the political scene. The scandal will likely hurt the SDKÚ.[5] A new centre-right party, Ordinary People, might enter parliament according to polls,[6] but Smer–SD, the favourite in the election, may not secure a full majority due to the emergence of another new party named 99 Percent – Civic Voice (99%).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_parliamentary_election,_2012

[freek]

Exit polls:

   Focus    MVK
Smer-SD    39,6    37,3
KDH            9,9    10,8
SDKÚ-DS    8,1    7,5
Most-Híd    6,3    6,8
SaS    7,1    5,9
OĽaNO    8,8    7,6
SNS    4,1    4,8
SMK    4,4    5,1
99%     1,6    2,6

Threshold = 5%

http://hnonline.sk/slovensko/c1-55006120-exit-polly-smer-nebude-mat-vacsinu

In seats:

   Focus    MVK
Smer-SD    75    69
KDH    19    20
SDKÚ-DS    15    14
Most-Híd    12    13
SaS    13    11
OĽaNO    16    14
SMK    0    9

[freek]

99% counted, absolute majority for Smer-SD:

Strana    Percentá
Smer-SD    44,60
KDH    8,80
Obyčajní ľudia    8,53
Most-Híd    6,87
SDKÚ-DS    5,98
SaS    5,78
SNS    4,58
SMK    4,34

In seats (total = 150):

Smer-SD 84
KDH    16
Obyčajní ľudia (Ordinary people)   16
Most-Híd    13
SDKÚ-DS    11
SaS    10

http://tvnoviny.sk/sekcia/specialy/volby/neoficialne-vysledky-volieb-podla-statistickeho-uradu.html

[jeron]

99% counted, absolute majority for Smer-SD:

Strana    Percentá
Smer-SD    44,60
KDH    8,80
Obyčajní ľudia    8,53
Most-Híd    6,87
SDKÚ-DS    5,98
SaS    5,78
SNS    4,58
SMK    4,34

In seats (total = 150):

Smer-SD 84
KDH    16
Obyčajní ľudia (Ordinary people)   16
Most-Híd    13
SDKÚ-DS    11
SaS    10

http://tvnoviny.sk/sekcia/specialy/volby/neoficialne-vysledky-volieb-podla-statistickeho-uradu.html

The exit polls were not very good then. The incumbent right-conservative coalition lost 28 seats down from 79 to 51.  The SDKU-DS of prime minister Radicova did particularly bad, losing 9% of the vote and 17 seats. Fortunately, the anti-Hungarian SNS is out.

[Andrea]

Compared to 2010:

Smer +22 seats
KDH +1
Obyčajní ľudia +16
Most-Hid -1
SDKU -17
SaS -12
SNS -9

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great, Fico's back...

Poor eastern Europe.

[Tender Branson]

Great, Fico's back...

Poor eastern Europe.

Yay !

If Hungary can do it, Slovakia can also elect a leftist Orban-lite again.

[minionofmidas]

a leftist Orban-lite

Ouch.

[You kip if you want to...]

Another EU country swings left... France next.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The best possible result, I suspect.

[minionofmidas]

Randomly generated fake majorities rarely are.

[Hash]

Another EU country swings left... France next.

This isn't something to cheer about. Fico isn't a left-winger in the good sense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Randomly generated fake majorities rarely are.

Wouldn't the alternatives in this case have been another rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition involving utterly discredited politicians and parties or another coalition between Fico and whatever obnoxious nationalist party made it into parliament?

[minionofmidas]

Randomly generated fake majorities rarely are.

Wouldn't the alternatives in this case have been another rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition involving utterly discredited politicians and parties or another coalition between Fico and whatever obnoxious nationalist party made it into parliament?

So?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Randomly generated fake majorities rarely are.

Wouldn't the alternatives in this case have been another rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition involving utterly discredited politicians and parties or another coalition between Fico and whatever obnoxious nationalist party made it into parliament?

So?

Basically, I don't see how either outcome would be exactly better.

[minionofmidas]

Randomly generated fake majorities rarely are.

Wouldn't the alternatives in this case have been another rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition involving utterly discredited politicians and parties or another coalition between Fico and whatever obnoxious nationalist party made it into parliament?

So?

Basically, I don't see how either outcome would be exactly better.

I'm mostly assuming that outcomes such as this one tend, based on past experience, to be very bad for the winners. Obviously exceptions apply.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Randomly generated fake majorities rarely are.

Wouldn't the alternatives in this case have been another rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition involving utterly discredited politicians and parties or another coalition between Fico and whatever obnoxious nationalist party made it into parliament?

So?

Basically, I don't see how either outcome would be exactly better.

I'm mostly assuming that outcomes such as this one tend, based on past experience, to be very bad for the winners. Obviously exceptions apply.

Eh, that's a fair point.