2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 114110 times)
minionofmidas
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« Reply #675 on: November 30, 2012, 07:37:21 AM »

Nah, when you compare everybody's final polls and the actual result, the actual result tends to be the mild outlier.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #676 on: December 03, 2012, 02:00:14 AM »

Karlsruhe/Mayor RESULTS
Turnout 42,2%
55,25% Dr Frank Mentrup (SPD/Gr/Pir/KAL)
35,40% Ingo Wellenreuther (CDU)
04,46% Friedemann Kalmbach (GfK)
02,36% Niko Fostiropoulos (Linke)
01,52% Jürgen Wenzel (Freie Wähler)
00,44% Michael Böhm (ind)
00,39% Sascha Toni Oehme (ind)
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LastVoter
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« Reply #677 on: December 03, 2012, 02:58:58 AM »

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?
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Franzl
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« Reply #678 on: December 03, 2012, 03:04:48 AM »

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

They could, but likely won't.
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Iannis
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« Reply #679 on: December 03, 2012, 03:34:53 AM »

I'm seriously beginning to wonder if it's only in France where we have some kind of left and right that won't event hink of making a "grand coalition". It's like a plague for Nate's sake !

You might as well scrap governments and have all managed by administrations rather than have grand coalitions. These things are the cancer of the political landscape.

You know, in the majority of countries it's considered a democracy only if the government represents 50% of voters, or at least 45%, not certainly 35-40%
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #680 on: December 03, 2012, 03:48:07 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2012, 03:51:13 AM by Leftbehind »

^That renders every UK government since 1970 undemocratic.

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

Not if they want to keep their party.
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Franzl
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« Reply #681 on: December 05, 2012, 03:20:57 AM »

CDU has rejected an internal party motion to equalize tax benefits between marriage and same-sex partnerships.
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Franzl
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« Reply #682 on: December 05, 2012, 07:29:22 AM »

Lots of new polls!

Infratest dimap 05.12.2012
Hessen (State Election)Sad

CDU 36%
SPD 31%
Grüne 18%
Linke 5%

FDP 4%
Piraten 3%

Government 36%, Opposition  54% (excluding parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green majority, it's not even close. (49-41)



GMS 04.12.2012
Niedersachsen (State Election)Sad

CDU 41%
SPD 32%
Grüne 13%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
Linke 3%

Government 41, Opposition 45 (exclusing parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green majority, (45-41), although it's rather close and the FDP getting 1% more would make it a tied race. Kind of embarrassing for a state that really should be a lot better for social democrats.



Forsa 05.12.2012
Federal Election: Bundestag

CDU/CSU 37%
SPD 26%
Grüne 16%
Linke 7%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%

Government 37, Opposition 49 (excluding parties without representation)

---> SPD/Green slightly short of a majority (42-44), although it would be out of reach if the FDP got back over the threshold.
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Franzl
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« Reply #683 on: December 05, 2012, 04:35:36 PM »

Infratest dimap on Berlin state level:

CDU 26%
SPD 25%
Grüne 20%
Linke 14%
Piraten 7%

FDP 2%


Government (SPD/CDU) 51%, Opposition 41%

Not enough for SPD-Green (45-47). Wowereit might want that if the CDU gets 1st place...
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Kitteh
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« Reply #684 on: December 05, 2012, 04:51:18 PM »

Is Red-Red-Green considered a viable option in Berlin? I'm assuming because of the Red-Red coalition before 2011 that the SPD there is not against deals with Die Linke.
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Franzl
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« Reply #685 on: December 05, 2012, 05:31:44 PM »

Is Red-Red-Green considered a viable option in Berlin? I'm assuming because of the Red-Red coalition before 2011 that the SPD there is not against deals with Die Linke.

Theoretically, although Wowereit turned down Red-Green last year.
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politicus
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« Reply #686 on: December 06, 2012, 11:40:32 AM »

^That renders every UK government since 1970 undemocratic.

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

Not if they want to keep their party.
Which is pretty much how we view it on the Continent.
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« Reply #687 on: December 06, 2012, 11:52:51 AM »


The current government 'represents' 59.1% of the voters. Granted it's not very good representation.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #688 on: December 06, 2012, 12:36:56 PM »

The attitude on display here contributed greatly to the total corruption of Italian politics in the DC era. Just saying.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #689 on: December 06, 2012, 01:40:01 PM »

The attitude on display here contributed greatly to the total corruption of Italian politics in the DC era. Just saying.
Could you elaborate for those who don't know Italian politics?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #690 on: December 06, 2012, 01:59:30 PM »

No, I'm in one of those moods where I can't be bothered with elaboration. Might do later, though.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #691 on: December 06, 2012, 03:29:01 PM »

The attitude on display here contributed greatly to the total corruption of Italian politics in the DC era. Just saying.
Could you elaborate for those who don't know Italian politics?

Italy used full-PR without threshold from 1946 to 1994. Obviously no party had an absolute majority, but the two strongest parties were christian democrats (DC) and communists (PCI). Basically all the smaller parties gathered around DC in an unideological "grand coalition" (even the Socialists joined in the 1960s), leaving communists and neofascists as the only real opposition. This lasted for almost 50 years, until all those parties suddenly collapsed in the early 1990s following corruption investigations.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #692 on: December 06, 2012, 04:17:04 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2012, 04:21:05 PM by Leftbehind »


The current government 'represents' 59.1% of the voters. Granted it's not very good representation.

Yeah, it's fair to say the current government bucks the trend on those terms, for a number of reasons however I'm not convinced it's any more democratic (I think I'd be in the majority arguing it's less so - and I'm someone who largely envies continental PR coalitions).
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change08
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« Reply #693 on: December 06, 2012, 08:25:21 PM »


The current government 'represents' 59.1% of the voters. Granted it's not very good representation.

Yeah, it's fair to say the current government bucks the trend on those terms, for a number of reasons however I'm not convinced it's any more democratic (I think I'd be in the majority arguing it's less so - and I'm someone who largely envies continental PR coalitions).

Of course it's less democratic. 59.1% may have voted for the governing parties but neither voted for a coalition or with the idea or assumption of a Conservative-Liberal coalition as they put their cross on the ballot paper. And even worse again, the coalition is governing not on a manifesto, but on a coalition agreement which didn't even exist when Britain voted.

That's how our coalition's different from a European one. We just assumed the Tories would get elected to a minority and stumble on for a few months until another election. European countries (I presume), like Germany, make assumptions about what tone of government their vote will produce - Green voters knowing that their vote will probably be used to form a red-green government, FDP voters assuming a black-yellow.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #694 on: December 06, 2012, 09:10:48 PM »

I did want to make the point that continental coalitions are much less awkward, mismatched, unexpected etc and often factored into their votes, but didn't have the time. Of course not all PR coalitions are as straightforward as Germany's; centre/liberal parties can and do hop between sides, but even then there's an expectancy of such, a diverse enough spectrum for those concerned to hop off to bolster their respective side if they don't trust the centrists to pick them, and crucially a direct relationship between votes and seats/consequent parliamentary make-up.

Contrast that to those voting Liberal in the South to keep the Tories out, well aware Labour are uncompetitive there - actually encouraged to by Liberal leaflets - were actually voting most effectively, and yet wound up as counted in that 59.1%.  Of course the Liberals could've justified the nonsensical coalition if they'd ensured some form of PR for the future to demonstrate not all coalitions have to be bastardised, but as that's been shot down so to will the abiding memory of coalitions.  One victory after another for Clegg and our democracy.  
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #695 on: December 07, 2012, 12:10:13 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2012, 12:15:48 PM by Mitt Romney is the new Ronald Reagan »

Is Red-Red-Green considered a viable option in Berlin? I'm assuming because of the Red-Red coalition before 2011 that the SPD there is not against deals with Die Linke.

Theoretically, although Wowereit turned down Red-Green last year.

He also turned them down back in 2006. Wowereit seems to despise the Greens.

Then again, considering his decreasing popularity both within and without his own party he may not be part of a future coalition anyway.
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Franzl
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« Reply #696 on: December 07, 2012, 03:05:15 PM »

Infratest Dimap: FEDERAL

CDU 39
SPD 30
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green close but not enough. (44-46)
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Franzl
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« Reply #697 on: December 07, 2012, 03:06:31 PM »

So now there are 2 polls showing Red-Green down only 2%, with FDP and Pirates out.
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Kitteh
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« Reply #698 on: December 07, 2012, 05:41:00 PM »

I would imagine that if Red-Green is a possibility the SPD will choose that over a grand coalition, no? At least for the fact that Steinbruek would get to be chancellor.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #699 on: December 07, 2012, 06:56:24 PM »

I would imagine that if Red-Green is a possibility the SPD will choose that over a grand coalition, no? At least for the fact that Steinbruek would get to be chancellor.

Of course they will. That's their official campaign strategy. The Green one too.
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