2012 Elections in Germany

[Peter the Lefty]

Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

In a room filled with left wing party hacks I wouldn't be surprised. The reality is that it's looking very unlikely.

Fixed

[minionofmidas]

There were a few more token candidates, so yeah, I guess they got 6% of the vote between them. (Would need to check what they did with votes for one candidate only.)
Yeah, that's a pretty ugly result for Roth. Better than I expected (and better than she deserves, and worse than she expected) for Künast though.
Though Göring-Eckardt is precisely the sort of candidate that'll play better with party membership, or also convention delegates, than with either smoke-filled rooms or the electorate at large.

[minionofmidas]

I can't count. These figures add to 184%, not 194%.

Anyways that's 8.6% for the 11 random Joe Blows who individually noticed that Trittin was the only male candidate and therefore filed as well, 5.6% only one vote cast and 0.9% (times two) blank ballots / invalid ballots (say voting for more than two) / voted NOTA (there was such an option). And yes, the percentages are based on turnout times two.

62% of party members voted; the guesstimate before the election was 50 to 60. I'd love for results by state, but it's not available. Only the number of party members entitled to vote per state is:

[MrMittens]

Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

[Franzl]

Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.

[MrMittens]

Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.

So support for the EU is pretty entrenched, even in spite of the Euro crisis?

[Tender Branson]

Just a question, is there a major Eurosceptic party in Germany, as in the UK?

None with any chance of breaking 5%.

So support for the EU is pretty entrenched, even in spite of the Euro crisis?

Just because there is no party that's really eurosceptic, it doesn't mean a sizeable amount of the population is not. I'd say 20-30% of Germans are eurosceptic at the moment, maybe even more ...

[Zanas]

The NPD actually can sometimes break 5% in some of the Eastern part's regional parliaments, but that's all. I think they're rather decreasing than rising nowadays.

[DL]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

[Peter the Lefty]

Steinbrück an epic failure so far.  http://my.chicagotribune.com/#story/sns-rt-us-germany-politics-steinbrueckbre8a814a-20121109/

[RogueBeaver]

Hah. Yet because of the FDP self-nuke he'll be in cabinet anyways. Merkel continues her glidepath to a third term.

[Franzl]

Must be nice to be Angela Merkel right now. Just like in 2009, there's not (yet) any serious way she would lose her office, regardless of coalition.

[politicus]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

[Knives]

Can the Greens, SDP, the Left and the FDP form a coalition?

[Franzl]

Can the Greens, SDP, the Left and the FDP form a coalition?

Mitt Romney was more likely to win Vermont.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

I'd describe the Left Party as most eurosceptic (or at least most EU-secptic) German "mainstream" party.

Can the Greens, SDP, the Left and the FDP form a coalition?

Mitt Romney was more likely to win Vermont.

I'd say Bernie Sanders is more likely to become the Republican nominee for president in 2016.



Ah, btw... Claudia Roth won't resign as party chairwoman of the Greens, but it was really a 50/50 thing and ultimately she didn't step down after she was urged by many Green leaders not to go.

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

I'd describe the Left Party as most eurosceptic (or at least most EU-secptic) German "mainstream" party.

I agree with both of those statements, but that's not my point. It seems like there is a cleavage on the left between Green/Pirate types and Linke types similar to the differences between Santorum & Romeny Republicans.

From what I can tell from this side of the Atlantic, the sort of people who vote Green/Pirate are educated & younger, with higher incomes. Supporters of Linke seem to be poorer, less educated and from the former East Germany.

I just don't see the young professionals who support the Greens/Pirates going all Eurosceptic. They're too cosmopolitan. One can certainly lean left and be Eurosceptic, but I have yet to see that particular kind of leftist be Eurosceptic.

[Diouf]

I agree with both of those statements, but that's not my point. It seems like there is a cleavage on the left between Green/Pirate types and Linke types similar to the differences between Santorum & Romeny Republicans.

From what I can tell from this side of the Atlantic, the sort of people who vote Green/Pirate are educated & younger, with higher incomes. Supporters of Linke seem to be poorer, less educated and from the former East Germany.

I just don't see the young professionals who support the Greens/Pirates going all Eurosceptic. They're too cosmopolitan. One can certainly lean left and be Eurosceptic, but I have yet to see that particular kind of leftist be Eurosceptic.

Well, your assessment of the Pirate voters is partly correct. According to a recent study, the average Pirate voter is 34 years old, healthy and well educated, but poor and with a high degree of job uncertainty. The Linke voters are actually wealthier than the Pirate voters. Maybe (some of) the Pirate voters could be described as modern bohemes?

I do think you're right in estimating that they won't be too Eurosceptic, and the study shows that their voters generally have many foreign contacts. From what I've read it seems like the Pirates are generally opposed to the austerity measures in the EU and the way they have been agreed upon. Their main suggestions are for more democracy and transparency with more power to the EP, and the Council turned into a second chamber.

The study can be found at this link: http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2012-09/Piraten-Waehler-Umfrage

Press at the "Die Parteien und das Wählerherz"

[minionofmidas]

Fwiw, Pirates would probably top the vote (of those who do vote) in the stands at the Waldstadion today.

[Franzl]

3 opinion polls have come out in the last week:

                            Emnid                   FGW                    Forsa

CDU/CSU               39                        39                         39
SPD                       28                        30                         26
Grüne                    13                        13                         14
Linke                      7                          6                           8
Piraten                   5                          4                           4
FDP                        4                          4                           4
     

[RedPrometheus]

New Yougov/INSA poll

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 29%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 4%
Left: 7%
Pirates: 4%
Others: 4%

[DC Al Fine]

It will be interesting to see if FDP supporters turn out a bit more if they think they'll lose all of their representation.

[Franzl]

It will be interesting to see if FDP supporters turn out a bit more if they think they'll lose all of their representation.

I don't think the FDP's problem is that its supporters aren't turning out...

[MrMittens]

Would 38% be a good polling rate for the CDU (I'm not very knowledgeable about German politics )