2012 Elections in Germany

[jeron]

Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

[jeron]

There is also a new poll for Saarland by Emnid:

SPD 36%
CDU 36%
Greens 5%
FDP 2%
Linke 15%
Pirates 4%

So, either a Red-Red coalition or a Grand coalition.

[jeron]

Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.

I don't that think that there are real liberals within the CDU. There are CDU members that are politically close to the more conservative FDP members. However, as a liberal party FDP focuses more on the individual, while CDU emphasises family values and society as a whole.

[jeron]

Pretty sad state for a party that fights with the NPD ...

It's the third worst result ever for the FDP in state elections. (The worst results were 1.1% in Thuringen and Sachsen in 1999. That year the FDP had 2.6% in Saarland, btw)

[jeron]

My Wahl-O-Mat result for Schleswig-Holstein:

Greens 55
FDP 50
SSW 46
SPD 44
Linke 42
Piraten 42
CDU 37

[jeron]

Is the FDP still starring into the abyss ?

Yes. In the latest poll by FGW for NRW they are at 4%.