2012 Elections in Germany

[Leftbehind]

The Pirates really are an absolute disease.

[Leftbehind]

Would 38% be a good polling rate for the CDU (I'm not very knowledgeable about German politics )

As has already been mentioned, you really need to look at their reliable partner to deem whether it's good. High thirties is a pretty good figure for the CDU/CSU in recent times, but when mentioned alongside a complete collapse of the FDP, it starts to look less rosy. 42% for the Right would be one of their weakest showings in decades, comparable to their result in '98 (Schroder's victory).

[Leftbehind]

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.

[Leftbehind]

When I said Right on the decline, I was talking about the combined right - the CDU/CSU-FDP is polling at the lowest figures in decades. Obviously the CDU has benefited in support from the FDP collapse - just as you'd expect the SPD to if the Greens were to do the same - but as their go-to coalition partners, it's clearly a setback - or it would be without the assured propping up by the SPD.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

Absolutely anything would be better for the SPD than propping up the CDU, but it won't stop them.

[Leftbehind]

I understand the difficulties and don't expect a SPD-Left coalition in the foreseeable future (obviously with Greens included in that) but I'll argue for it nonetheless given how the current situation enormously helps the Right. 

The voters don't take very kindly to multiple snap elections.

Voters don't take very kindly to their party propping up their ideological opposite, either.

[Leftbehind]

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

[Leftbehind]

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.

I guess my original wording comes from the fact I'm far from convinced the average Labour or Democrat voter is happy with the alignment. Obviously the SPD voter has more places to go to register that, but still:

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.

Yeah, but that would have two thirds of German voters (which is what the CDU/SPD are currently polling) happy with that - I'd find it incredible if they were all centrists.

[Leftbehind]

^That renders every UK government since 1970 undemocratic.

Could Die Linke voters strategically vote for Greens to get a left-wing coalition?

Not if they want to keep their party.

[Leftbehind]

^That renders every UK government since 1970 undemocratic.

The current government 'represents' 59.1% of the voters. Granted it's not very good representation.

Yeah, it's fair to say the current government bucks the trend on those terms, for a number of reasons however I'm not convinced it's any more democratic (I think I'd be in the majority arguing it's less so - and I'm someone who largely envies continental PR coalitions).

[Leftbehind]

I did want to make the point that continental coalitions are much less awkward, mismatched, unexpected etc and often factored into their votes, but didn't have the time. Of course not all PR coalitions are as straightforward as Germany's; centre/liberal parties can and do hop between sides, but even then there's an expectancy of such, a diverse enough spectrum for those concerned to hop off to bolster their respective side if they don't trust the centrists to pick them, and crucially a direct relationship between votes and seats/consequent parliamentary make-up.

Contrast that to those voting Liberal in the South to keep the Tories out, well aware Labour are uncompetitive there - actually encouraged to by Liberal leaflets - were actually voting most effectively, and yet wound up as counted in that 59.1%.  Of course the Liberals could've justified the nonsensical coalition if they'd ensured some form of PR for the future to demonstrate not all coalitions have to be bastardised, but as that's been shot down so to will the abiding memory of coalitions.  One victory after another for Clegg and our democracy.  

[Leftbehind]

It's rather less impressive when they're the only receptacle for Rightist votes now the FDP won't make it back into parliament. I'd like to see some seat projections.

[Leftbehind]

You'd think though that any eventual rise would come from the CDU/CSU VI anyway.