2012 Elections in Germany

[Peter the Lefty]

Another grand coalition in Saarland?  Wow, big change there.  The SPD is too chicken to join forces with the Left there too, I take it?

[Peter the Lefty]

Another grand coalition in Saarland?  Wow, big change there.

Why's that? This would be the first grand coalition Saarland had since 1961.

Because the CDU would still hold the governor's office, and it would only be a hair more left-wing than the CDU-FDP-Greens coalition.  

[Peter the Lefty]

The Pirates really are an absolute disease.

Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?

For the time being, "left-wingers" are probably refusing to work with them.

The SPD likes to play it safe. To enter a coalition with a newly formed party who is still trying to find positions on a lot of issues and hence is undergoing constant changes means taking a risk. On the other hand, entering a coalition with the CDU isn't much risky at all.

Except the risk it poses to their soul as a social democratic party.  Oh well, they seem to have lost that years ago.

[Peter the Lefty]

Kurt Beck won't be chancellor-candidate, ever. In 2009 he didn't run because he had been toppled as party chairman the year before. (Also, he isn't resigning yet since he already denied those rumours.)

Regarding Hannelore Kraft: 2013 is too early, because it will be Steinmeier's (again), Steinbrück's or Gabriel's turn then. 2017 wouldn't be too far-fetched though.

Damnit, Steinmeier tried and failed once, it should be pretty clear that it oughta be someone else.  And not that Schroderite Steinbruck!  Way to alienate the SPD base even more. Gabriel is all right, but is there at least a chance of it?  And is she considered a Schroderite or more of a left-winger?

[Peter the Lefty]

The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.

Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

[Peter the Lefty]

Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

If they really pushed for it, the Pirate Party would break apart because of this. Hence CDU and Pirates wouldn't have a majority anymore anyway.

Lol well they have definined themselves as a "social liberal" party.  If they joined the CDU in a coalition, it seems like they'd soon become a slightly more eccentric and information/Internet savvy German reincarnation of the LibDems.  Lol.  But the idea of Pirates sitting in a cabinet with the hard-nosed conservatives of the CDU does sound hilarious. 

Just imagine the awkwardness of the official cabinet photo. 

[Peter the Lefty]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left). On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.

An actual left-alternative.  The SPD is clearly a mainly centrist party, and should be seen as such until it agrees that the Agenda 2010 program was wrong, and embraces true social democracy.  And it needs to throw out those neo-liberal crooks (Steinmeier, Steinbruck, Garrelt Duin, Johannes Kahrs, and all those other Seeheimer Kreis phonies, with the possible exception of Sigmar Gabriel.)  And they also need to stop acting so eager to jump into bed with the CDU.  Then they can actually be on the left.  That's what Antonio means by "left alternative" (I think). 

[Peter the Lefty]

How about "die Partei der Democratischen Linke?"

[Peter the Lefty]

A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp. 

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?

[Peter the Lefty]

A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp.  

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?

^^

While this doesn't contradict the SPD's basic position on the issue, they surely would avoid phrasing it as "Germany gives more money to Greece".

The SPD has proposed a "European Growth Compact". Phrasing the narrative as "Europe provides money in order to generate growth in Europe" is the only way it may be accepted by German voters, although some may still figure out that it essentially means "Germany gives money to Greece" in the end.

I know it wouldn't be that phrasing.  Just sort of a "give them room to grow and get this headache over with" type of thing. 

[Peter the Lefty]

In the UK, the Tories were supposed to win in a big landslide and Labour was supposed to be crushed, instead it ended up being a weak Tory minority and Labour suffered much milder losses than anyone expected...every time you think you have a pattern, something contrary happens. One thing that is about 99.99999% certain is that there will be no more rightwing CDU/FDP coalition in Germany aft the next election. The best Merkel can hope for is that she shifts over to a centre-left coalition with the SPD and they will get wayy more cabinet seats than the FDP currently has since they would have close to have of the combined CDU and SPD vote.

Lol if the SPD agrees to that then can there be any doubt that they will be drubbed massively in 2017? 

[Peter the Lefty]

Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

[Peter the Lefty]

That poll is actually a month old.

Oh.  The post was near the top if you check "Kraft Merkel" in Google news.  I just assumed it was new.  But I just checked it, and I guess you're right. 

[Peter the Lefty]

Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?

[Peter the Lefty]

Okay, I've got another random question.  What are Kraft's positions on Agenda 2010 and the Harz laws?

Support in principle, but needs some corrections.

A fairly standard post-Schröder SPD position.

What kind of corrections?  And what does "in principle" mean?  Is it that she thinks that the bulk of the "reforms" were good, or more of a general "we support fiscal responsibility, but this was the wrong way to go about it" type of thing?  
Willy Brandt would be horrified to see what has become of the SPD.  

[Peter the Lefty]

Breaking News: Peer Steinbrück will be the SPD's candidate for chancellor.

*goes into Obi-wan Kenobi mode* NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!  Well, at least this will finish him off, hopefully. 

[Peter the Lefty]

The saddest thing is that the FDP will almost certainly get in...

NEVER IN MY LIFE did I think I would ever say this, but:
Crossing fingers for CDU/CSU–FDP majority! 

The reason: It'll be Steinbrück's demise.  Plus, it's not like he'd be any different.  Plus, a grand coalition would prevent the SPD from doing the soul-searching it needs to do to turn left.  And it would almost certainly result in their annihlation in 2017. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I wonder if the SPD left just stepped aside because they knew no one who was good could win and wanted to discredit the neoliberals once and for all.  Wouldn't surprise me. 

My top three choices for 2017, not necessarily in this order:
Hannelore Kraft, Manuela Schwesig, Florian Pronold. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...

They were around 16% before he was announced as their leading-candidate for the election, if I remember correctly.  Lmao at the Texas of Germany.

[Peter the Lefty]

Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

In a room filled with left wing party hacks I wouldn't be surprised. The reality is that it's looking very unlikely.

Fixed

[Peter the Lefty]

Steinbrück an epic failure so far.  http://my.chicagotribune.com/#story/sns-rt-us-germany-politics-steinbrueckbre8a814a-20121109/

[Peter the Lefty]

Ah geez.  This is depressing.  Dear God, how I hope Merkel won't be a 4-termer.