2012 Elections in Germany

[RedPrometheus]

Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.

I don't that think that there are real liberals within the CDU. There are CDU members that are politically close to the more conservative FDP members. However, as a liberal party FDP focuses more on the individual, while CDU emphasises family values and society as a whole.

Historically the CDU and especially the CSU were christian Parties. Adenauer intended the CDU to bring together Lutherans and Catholics into one party and win political majorities with this.

I don't believe that today this christian heritage is very much evident in day-to-day politics, but I'm always surprised how Christian and conservative members of the CDU's youth wing are.

The FDP was founded as a successor  of the liberal parties from the Weimar Republic and thus didn't have this Christian connection.

[RedPrometheus]

New poll from Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 33% (+1,5%)
SPD: 33% (+7,6)
FDP: 3% (-11,9%)
Greens: 16% (+3,6%)
Left: 3% (-3%)
SSW: 3% (-1,3%)
Pirates: 5% (+3,2%)

The numbers are compared with the last election results. So both a CDU-Green-coalition and a SPD-Green-coalition and of course a CDU-SPD-coalition are possible.

Direcht election of the Ministerpresident:

de Jager (CDU): 29 %
Albig (SPD): 45%
None of the above: 15%

ndr.de/regional/schleswig-holstein/wahlumfrage137.html

[RedPrometheus]

A new poll from Forsa for the next federal election:

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 2%
Greens: 15%
Linke: 8%
Pirates: 8%
Others: 4%

Anybody else sees a "grand" coalition on the horizon?

wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[RedPrometheus]

New poll from Saarland from Infratest dimap (compared to last election)

CDU: 35% (+0,5%)
SPD: 36% (+11,5%)
FDP: 2%  (-7,2%)
Greens: 4%  (-1,9%)
Linke: 15% (-6,3%)
Pirates: 5% ()
Others: 3%

It'll be interesting if the SPD will work with the Left.

wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/saarland.htm

[RedPrometheus]

Great day! Especially for NRW!

Latest Poll shows:

SPD: 35%
CDU: 35%
Greens: 17%
FDP: 2%
Left: 3%
Pirates: 5%
Others: 3%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

I heard from an acquaintance from the political scene that the date for the elections is probably the 13th of May.

[RedPrometheus]

A new NRW poll released today (compared to 2010 results)

CDU: 33% (-1,6)
SPD: 39% (+4,5)
Greens: 11% (-1,1)
Left: 4% (-1,6)
FDP: 4% (-2,7)
Pirates: 6% (+4,6)
Others: 3% (-1,9)

Kraft is also much more popular. In a direct election 56 percent would vote for her, 26 percent for Röttgen.


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

[RedPrometheus]

And a poll from RLP:

CDU: 36% (+0,8)
SPD: 36% (+0,3)
Greens: 15% (-0,4)
FDP: 3% (-1,2)
Left: 2% (-1)
Pirates: 4% (+2,4)

Solid Red-Green majority.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm

[RedPrometheus]

Schleswig-Holstein poll (Infratest dimap, 04/12)

CDU 32%
SPD 32%
Greens 12%
Pirates 11%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 3%

Pirate surge prevents SPD/Green majority. Looks like a Grand coalition to me.

I'm really hoping for a SPD/Green/SSW coalition or minority government at this point. Anything but a grand coalition.

[RedPrometheus]

A couple of new polls:

Federal elections:

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 29%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 3%
Left: 6%
Pirates: 9%
Others: 4%

No clear majority. The next grand coalition is looming.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

NRW:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 38%
Greens: 10%
FDP: 5%
Left: 4%
Pirates: 9%
Others: ?

A slight majority for Red-Green, but the FDP might get in.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

SH

CDU: 31%
SPD: 31%
Greens: 12,5%
FDP: 7%
Left: 2,5%
Pirates: 9%
SSW: 4%
Others: 3%

VERY slight majority for SPD-Greens-SSW (47,5) compared to CDU-FDP-Pirates (47)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm

[RedPrometheus]

In a case like S-H where its very touch and go as to whether the math will be there or not for an SPD/Green/SSW government and if that does work it may that a Grand Coalition is the only possible government - suddenly it becomes critical which party is the largest since it would supply the Premier....if the polls show a near toss-up between the SPD and CDU for biggest party - could you start to have some "strategic voting" by supporters of smaller parties who might vote SPD to make sure that the SPD is the largest party and that its leader becomes premier no matter what?>

I have the strong impression that the right-wing tends more to strategic voting. So the FDP could suffer. I don't believe that the Pirate voters would vote strategically.

[RedPrometheus]

A new poll for SH by GMS:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 33%
Greens: 12%
FDP: 6%
Left: 2%
Pirates: 8%
SSW: 4%
Others: 3%

A majority for SPD/Greens/SSW with 49% compared to 46% for CDU/FDP/Pirates.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm

And another one for Berlin by Forsa:

CDU: 23%
SPD: 28%
Greens: 16%
FDP: ?
Left: 10%
Pirates: 15%
Others: 8%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

[RedPrometheus]

And a number of new polls for NRW:

Pollster	CDU	SPD	Greens	FDP	Left	Pirates	Others
Forsa 2.5.	32%	37%	10%	5%	3%	10%	3%
YouGov 3.5.	31%	36%	11%	5%	4%	10%	?
Infratest 3.5.	30%	38,5%	11%	6%	4%	7,5%	3%
FGW 4.5.	31%	38%	11%	6%	3%	8%	3%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

The latest polls show a stabilizing majority for Red-Green.

[RedPrometheus]

Stabilizing majority? They may gez it, but I'd be rather worried if I were them.

Why is that?

[RedPrometheus]

The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.

Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

I know several former members of the Left who went (back) to the SPD but mostly on a local level. The problem is that in West Germany a lot of members are just crazy and in East Germany they are one of the three major parties. So the people who could go the SPD on an ideological basis are already very established and the members in West Germany are too radical to go to the SPD.

[RedPrometheus]

Kraft is also preferred as Chancellor to Merkel now, according to a new poll.  43% said they preferred Kraft.  34% preferred Merkel.  Oh boy, I hope this trend lasts!

Hanneloremomentum! 

In the very unlikely event that she runs for the SPD-frontrunner post next year, who would follow her in NRW as SPD leader ?

I would guess Ralf Jäger minister of the interior. He seems quite established.

[RedPrometheus]

There is a first projection for the constituencies in Lower Saxony.

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_120617.html

Looking good!

[RedPrometheus]

A new projection for the seats in Lower Saxony:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/content.pl?url=/img/poll/ns_wp_120719.html

[RedPrometheus]

I wonder if the SPD left just stepped aside because they knew no one who was good could win and wanted to discredit the neoliberals once and for all.  Wouldn't surprise me. 

My top three choices for 2017, not necessarily in this order:
Hannelore Kraft, Manuela Schwesig, Florian Pronold. 

The problem for the SPD left is their complete lack of real power and influence. They play almost no role in the partie's decision making. I believe that the strategy is now to get concessions on pension benefits from party leadership.

Regarding 2017 the probable top choices are Hannelore Kraft, Sigmar Gabriel and perhaps Olaf Scholz. Though it all depends wether we'll get another grand coalition, if so a member of the next cabinet is of course also a possibility.

Manuela Schwesig will be still quite young in 2017 and needs much more experience. I like Florian Pronold, but the question is if he can stay state party chairman if the SPD loses the next Bavarian elections (which is quite likely imo)

[RedPrometheus]

And a new federal poll from yesterday:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 31%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 4%
Left: 7%
Pirates: 4%
Others: 4%

It looks like a Steinbrück bump for the CDU ;-)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap.htm

[RedPrometheus]

Well I've spent the whole day at the SPD's party convention in Lower Saxony. Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

Nevertheless none of the shadow cabinet members said anything revolutionary so the mood seems to not cause any damage before the election.

Furthermore the mood before and during Steinbrück's speech wasn't great so the party certainly has some problems with him.

[RedPrometheus]

New Yougov/INSA poll

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 29%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 4%
Left: 7%
Pirates: 4%
Others: 4%

[RedPrometheus]

It will hurt both parties probably in the short run. But I think after the next federal election the leaders of both parties will have to look at a strategic perspective of working together.