2012 Elections in Germany

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

I can't see a bunch of youthful, left leaning protest votes going all Eurosceptic. The Pirate's voters don't strike me as the type who would vote for a UKIP.

They could be. In Scandinavia there is a strong left wing anti-European tradition and Northern Germany is not that culturally different. The EU is committed to fiscally conservatie goals with anti-inflation policies and fiscal austerity deemed more important than fighting unemployment. It is also viewed by many left wingers to be a bureaucratic monster that is pro-big business adnd the establishment. So you dont have to be a conservative to be a euro-sceptic.

I'd describe the Left Party as most eurosceptic (or at least most EU-secptic) German "mainstream" party.

I agree with both of those statements, but that's not my point. It seems like there is a cleavage on the left between Green/Pirate types and Linke types similar to the differences between Santorum & Romeny Republicans.

From what I can tell from this side of the Atlantic, the sort of people who vote Green/Pirate are educated & younger, with higher incomes. Supporters of Linke seem to be poorer, less educated and from the former East Germany.

I just don't see the young professionals who support the Greens/Pirates going all Eurosceptic. They're too cosmopolitan. One can certainly lean left and be Eurosceptic, but I have yet to see that particular kind of leftist be Eurosceptic.

[DC Al Fine]

It will be interesting to see if FDP supporters turn out a bit more if they think they'll lose all of their representation.

[DC Al Fine]

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

[DC Al Fine]

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.

Though in this case its abundantly clear that it doesn't really matter if the FDP gets over or under the 5% barrier - they will have no where near enough seats to recreate the CDU-FDP coalition so they won't be part of the game. What possible incentive is there for a CDU voter to cast a strategic vote for the FDP when it doesn't really matter?

I'm not talking CDU voters. FDP got around 14% in the last election and is polling around 4% right now. Some of the 10% of the electorate could probably be convinced to vote FDP again if they think that their vote boots the FDP out of the Bundestag entirely instead of just making them lose seats.

[DC Al Fine]

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?

[DC Al Fine]

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?

Wouldn't Linke fall to 3-4%(below threshold) because most of their voters are protest votes against SPD?

Mostly. Linke was getting around 5% consistently until Schroder got turfed. They got 11% in the last election so I'd guess about 1/2 of their support would find a protest vote somewhere.

[DC Al Fine]

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.

[DC Al Fine]

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.

You mean 40%?

I meant 4% more than they got last time.

[DC Al Fine]

When I said Right on the decline, I was talking about the combined right - the CDU/CSU-FDP is polling at the lowest figures in decades. Obviously the CDU has benefited in support from the FDP collapse - just as you'd expect the SPD to if the Greens were to do the same - but as their go-to coalition partners, it's clearly a setback - or it would be without the assured propping up by the SPD.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

Absolutely anything would be better for the SPD than propping up the CDU, but it won't stop them.

The voters don't take very kindly to multiple snap elections.

[DC Al Fine]

The attitude on display here contributed greatly to the total corruption of Italian politics in the DC era. Just saying.

Could you elaborate for those who don't know Italian politics?

[DC Al Fine]

40% is excellent in an MMP system, yes?