UK local by-elections 2012

[ObserverIE]

Forest of Dean, Cinderford West

Lab 52.8 (+2.7)
Con 25.1 (+6.2)
UKIP 12.7 (+12.7)
Lib Dem 9.5 (-3.5)

[ObserverIE]

St Albans, Batchwood

Lab 55.1 (+14.2)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-2.7)
Con 19.1 (-7.8  )
Green 4.2 (+2.5)

Redcar and Cleveland, Newcomen

Lab 49.0 (+15.6)
Lib Dem 44.0 (-15.0)
Con 6.9 (-0.7)

[ObserverIE]

St Albans, Batchwood

Lab 55.1 (+14.2)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-2.7)
Con 19.1 (-7.8  )
Green 4.2 (+2.5)

yowza! some interesting swings there

All three sets of comparisons are with 2011. Not looking good for the Lib Dems so far.

[ObserverIE]

Rutland, Uppingham

Con 50.8 (+16.3)
Lab 25.3 (+25.3)
Lib Dem 24.0 (-9.5)

[ObserverIE]

The fourth out of four by-elections this month where the Lib Dem vote dropped from the already poor level of 2011.

[ObserverIE]

South Lakeland, Windermere Town

Lib Dem 72.9 (+3.0)
Con 14.8 (-0.4)
Lab 8.7 (-6.1)
UKIP 3.5 (+3.5)

Suffolk, Kesgrave and Rushmere

Con 49.7 (-7.5)
Lab 30.7 (+16.7)
Lib Dem 19.6 (-9.3)

Suffolk Coastal, Kesgrave East

Con 55.0 (+11.3)
Lab 24.9 (+3.0)
Lib Dem 20.1 (+2.6)

South Northamptonshire, Towcester Brook

Lib Dem 59.4 (+16.5)
Con 30.8 (-11.7)
UKIP 9.9 (-3.7)

Staffordshire, Leek South

Con 27.3 (-0.8 )
UKIP 20.9 (-15.7)
Lab 16.2 (+6.4)
Lib Dem 15.8 (-3.0)
MDA 12.6 (+12.6)
Ind 7.2 (+7.2)

Northamptonshire, Towcester

Lib Dem 60.7 (+32.6)
Con 30.3 (-30.7)
UKIP 5.9 (+7.7)
BNP 3.1 (+3.1)

Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek North

Lab 54.9 (+22.9)
UKIP 20.1 (-13.7)
Con 19.0 (-1.6)
MDA 3.5 (+3.5)
Lib Dem 2.6 (+2.6)

Hampshire, Winchester Southern Parishes

Con 53.8 (-3.9)
Lib Dem 33.6 (+6.5)
UKIP 4.3 (-7.9)
Green 4.2 (+4.2)
Lab 4.0 (+0.9)

(source BritainVotes/Vote2007)

[ObserverIE]

Pretty good UKIP results in Leek.

UKIP were actually defending both seats, so no.

[ObserverIE]

Pretty good UKIP results in Leek.

UKIP were actually defending both seats, so no.

I know. I read the Holy Word. I didn't think personal votes were inheritable to such an extent; I would have guessed he'd get 10-15%.

Well, the personal vote was being literally inherited in a manner that would do deepest Kerry proud.

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word on tonight's by-elections from elsewhere.

[ObserverIE]

The Holy Word was coming, honest

Just ensuring that there would need to be no post-hoc time-travel or legal quibbles

[ObserverIE]

North West Leicestershire, Ibstock and Heather

Lab 34.5 (+4.5)
Lib Dem 26.7 (+12.5)
Con 25.6 (-13.3)
Ind 9.0 (-7.8 )
Green 2.3 (+2.3)
UKIP 1.9 (+1.9)

Oadby and Wigston, Oadby Woodlands

Con 47.0 (+4.9)
Lib Dem 37.3 (-20.6)
UKIP 15.6 (+15.6)

Sutton, Worcester Park

Lib Dem 47.2 (+2.8 )
Con 33.7 (-3.7)
Lab 10.9 (+1.4)
UKIP 6.6 (-2.1)
Green 1.6 (+1.6)

Horsham, Itchingfield, Slinford and Warnham

Con 47.4 (-5.1)
Lib Dem 27.2 (+4.3)
UKIP 14.7 (+3.6)
Green 5.5 (-8.0)
Lab 5.1 (+5.1)

[ObserverIE]

Cumbria, Castle (figures in italics represent change since 2011 city council elections)

Lab 43.1 (+0.7) (+19.6)
Lib Dem 39.0 (+6.2) (+3.0)
Con 9.8 (+9.8 ) (-9.9)
Green 5.7 (-4.7) (-5.4)
UKIP 2.3 (+2.3) (+2.3)

Shropshire, Abbey

Lib Dem 45.3 (+15.6)
Con 44.6 (-4.8 )
Green 10.1 (+10.1)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word

[ObserverIE]

Swale, Kemsley

Con 33.7 (-16.5)
Lab 27.3 (-0.6)
UKIP 24.5 (+10.6)
Lib Dem 14.5 (+6.5)

Stafford, Rowley

Lab 48.1 (+10.1)
Con 41.9 (-1.6)
Green 5.2 (-5.9)
UKIP 4.7 (+4.7)

Slough, Baylis and Stoke

Lab 58.7 (-21.7)
Ind (Choudhury) 34.5 (+34.5)
UKIP 3.7 (+3.7)
Ind (Dukes) 3.1 (+3.1)

(Courtesy of Britain Votes)

[ObserverIE]

Broxtowe, Toton and Chilwell Meadows

Con 47.6 (-1.1)
Lab 22.1 (-7.4)
Lib Dem 17.2 (+5.2)
UKIP 13.1 (+3.4)

Braintree, Braintree East

Lab 46.9 (+5.0)
Con 32.9 (-8.8 )
UKIP 11.1 (+11.1)
Green 6.4 (-9.9)
Ind 2.7 (+2.7)

Braintree, Braintree South

Lab 50.2 (+16.6)
Con 40.1 (+3.8 )
Green 9.8 (-2.7)

Braintree, Great Notley and Braintree West

Con 54.3 (-13.5)
Lab 23.7 (+4.5)
UKIP 15.8 (+15.8 )
Green 6.2 (-6.7)

Nottinghamshire, Chilwell and Toton

Con 48.8 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 34.2 (+20.6)
UKIP 17.0 (+7.0)

Fareham, Portchester East

Lib Dem 47.8 (-9.5)
Con 33.0 (+1.9)
Lab 12.7 (+1.1)
Green 3.5 (+3.5)
Ind 3.0 (+3.0)

Scarborough, Hertford

Con 60.5 (+22.6)
Lab 19.0 (+6.9)
UKIP 11.5 (+11.5)
Lib Dem 9.0 (+9.0)

[ObserverIE]

The Independent website, actually

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/byelections-boost-for-labour-7575042.html

[ObserverIE]

"The Independent" is trite. That is its style.

I think, strictly speaking, it was Press Association copy.

[ObserverIE]

Hertfordshire, Waltham Cross

Con 56.4 (+14.5)
Lab 34.0 (+6.9)
UKIP 6.5 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 3.1 (-10.5)

Tendring, St. Bartholomews

Residents 72.7 (+0.9)
Con 19.3 (-8.9)
Lab 8.0 (+8.0)

West Devon, Tavistock North

Ind Moody 35.5 (+8.3)
Con 22.3 (-10.6)
Lib Dem 19.6 (-3.2)
Lab 10.9 (-6.2)
UKIP 6.8 (+6.8 )
Ind Worth 5.0 (+5.0)

Brent, Dollis Hill

Lib Dem 46.5 (+6.6)
Lab 45.1 (+7.5)
Con 5.4 (-12.9)
Green 3.0 (-1.2)

[ObserverIE]

Holy Word unaccountably not posted here but available elsewhere

Wandsworth, Southfields

Con 49.1 (+0.1)
Lab 40.3 (+17.4)
Lib Dem 5.9 (-13.3)
Green 2.7 (-4.6)
UKIP 1.1 (+1.1)
Ind 1.0 (-0.6)

High Peak, Buxton Central

Lab 45.0 (+3.4)
Con 42.9 (+9.5)
Lib Dem 7.6 (-3.4)
Ind 4.5 (+4.5)

Sevenoaks, Cowden and Hever

Con 78.5
UKIP 21.5

Sevenoaks, Crockenhill and Well Hill

Lab 58.3
Con 34.0
UKIP 7.7

(Lab gain from Ind; Lab candidate widow of previous councillor)

North Kesteven, Heckington Rural

Con 53.1 (-2.6)
Lincs Ind 46.9 (+20.6)

[ObserverIE]

Barnet, East Finchley

Lab 67.8 (+24.7)
Con 17.4 (-8.5)
Lib Dem 14.8 (-7.6)

Newark and Sherwood, Lowdham

Con 51.5
Lib Dem 34.9
Lab 7.7
Ind 6.0

Darlington, Hurworth

Lib Dem 43.7 (-12.9)
Con 40.2 (+8.0)
Lab 13.3 (+2.1)
UKIP 2.9 (+2.9)

Darlington, Harrowgate Hill

Con 43.8 (+3.2)
Lab 38.3 (-21.1)
Lib Dem 9.0 (+9.0)
UKIP 6.0 (+6.0)
Eng First 3.0 (+3.0)

[ObserverIE]

Oxfordshire, Watlington

Con 62.2 (-6.6)
Lib Dem 18.6 (+3.6)
Lab 11.3 (+6.7)
UKIP 7.9 (+7.9)

Barking and Dagenham, Goresbrook (figures in italics are change since July 2010 by-election)

Lab 57.8 (+14.2) (+11.2)
BNP 30.8 (+3.6) (-3.2)
UKIP 4.7 (+4.7) (+2.1)
Con 4.2 (-8.9) (-1.5)
Lib Dem 2.5 (-6.8 ) (-4.7)

Tower Hamlets, Spitalfields and Banglatown (figures in italics are change since December 2010 by-election)

Ind 44.9 (+41.9) (+43.0)
Lab 43.0 (+8.1) (+5.3)
Con 6.1 (-5.9) (-3.1)
Green 4.3 (-5.8 ) (+0.8 )
Lib Dem 1.7 (-15.9) (-0.5)

(Respect took 22.4 in May 2010 and 45.4 in the by-election)

Chichester, Plaistow

Con 52.7 (-8.3)
Lib Dem 47.3 (+20.6)

[ObserverIE]

Tower Hamlets, Spitalfields and Banglatown (figures in italics are change since December 2010 by-election)

Ind 44.9 (+41.9) (+43.0)
Lab 43.0 (+8.1) (+5.3)
Con 6.1 (-5.9) (-3.1)
Green 4.3 (-5.8 ) (+0.8 )
Lib Dem 1.7 (-15.9) (-0.5)

How many raw votes is that for Robbani and Aladin?

Ind 1030, Lab 987, Con 140, Green 99, Lib Dem 39

[ObserverIE]

North Norfolk, Waterside (Holy Word here)

Lib Dem 32.2 (-2.7)
Con 27.4 (-8.5)
Lab 16.0 (+1.6)
UKIP 15.2 (+0.4)
Green 4.8 (+4.8 )
Ind 4.5 (+4.5)

Lib Dem hold

[ObserverIE]

Blackpool, Bloomfield

Lab 60.3 (-1.2)
Con 17.8 (-5.1)
Ind 15.9 (+15.9)
Lib Dem 6.0 (+1.9)

Blackpool, Marton

Lab 52.7 (+5.2)
Con 37.0 (-8.0)
Green 5.9 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 4.4 (-3.1)

Brent, Barnhill

Lab 56.5 (+12.1)
Con 28.6 (-5.1)
Green 11.1 (+4.8 )
Ind 3.8 (+3.8 )

Bromley, Bromley Town

Con 45.4 (+3.5)
Lib Dem 20.8 (-1.0)
Lab 19.2 (-0.1)
Green 7.4 (-2.7)
UKIP 7.3 (+0.3)

Camden, Camden Town and Primrose Hill

Lab 46.6 (+10.8 )
Con 20.8 (-0.3)
Lib Dem 18.9 (-11.3)
Green 11.3 (+0.8 )
Ind 2.5 (-)

Cumbria, Kendal Strickland and Fell

Lib Dem 55.7 (-16.5)
Lab 26.1 (+18.9)
Con 12.9 (-4.5)
UKIP 5.3 (+5.3)

East Riding of Yorkshire, South East Holderness

Con 37.5 (-1.3)
Lab 31.9 (+9.6)
Ind 30.6 (+5.5)

Hackney, Hackney Central

Lab 68.2 (+13.6)
Green 15.3 (+1.6)
Lib Dem 11.0 (-12.0)
Con 5.5 (-3.2)

Hertfordshire, Meriden Tudor

Lib Dem 40.2 (-3.6)
Lab 25.8 (+13.0)
Con 17.4 (-10.3)
UKIP 11.5 (+11.5)
Green 5.0 (-2.5)

Islington, Holloway

Lab 57.0 (+11.0)
Con 16.3 (+2.5)
Green 14.9 (+3.4)
Lib Dem 11.9 (-16.7)

Kingston-upon-Thames, Coombe Hill

Con 53.8 (+1.2)
Lab 17.4 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 13.7 (-12.4)
Green 7.9 (-0.8 )
UKIP 5.0 (+5.0)
CPA 2.2 (+0.5)

Merton, Wimbledon Park

Con 47.6 (+4.8 )
Lab 24.1 (+5.7)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-5.8 )
Green 6.6 (-0.8 )

North Yorkshire, Central Richmondshire

Richmondshire Ind 43.7 (+18.5)
Con 41.1 (-3.4)
Lab 15.2 (+10.3)

Richmond-upon-Thames, North Richmond

Con 43.2 (-3.7)
Lib Dem 39.5 (-4.2)
Lab 9.1 (-0.3)
Green 5.1 (+5.1)
Ind 3.1 (+3.1)

Richmondshire, Hornby Castle

Con 51.5
Richmondshire Ind 37.1
Lab 11.4

Suffolk, Bixley

Con 43.8 (-11.3)
Lab 28.6 (+15.0)
UKIP 11.6 (+11.6)
Green 9.6 (-4.4)
Lib Dem 6.4 (-10.9)

Surrey, Worplesdon (changes in italics since July 2010 by-election)

Con 53.6 (+5.1) (-)
Lib Dem 32.7 (-2.4) (-4.7)
Lab 13.7 (+9.5) (+8.1)

Tower Hamlets, Weavers'

Lab 40.3 (+4.1)
Respect 32.8 (+15.5)
Con 10.8 (-0.9)
Green 9.7 (-1.1)
Lib Dem 5.4 (-18.6)
Ind 0.9 (+0.9)

Westminster, Hyde Park

Con 57.8 (+10.4)
Lab 22.5 (+22.5)
Green 7.3 (-17.7)
Lib Dem 7.1 (-20.5)
UKIP 3.8 (+3.8 )
Ind 1.6 (+1.6)

[ObserverIE]

There are a couple of results where my 2010/11 figures may have weaknesses (there were 5 independent candidates in Holderness for three seats and no turnout figure so I summed up and divided by 3, and in Westminster there were only 2 Lib Dem and 1 Green candidates in 2010 against three Tories and no Labour) but the figures as they stand are uniformly dire for the Lib Dems, particularly in places like Islington and Kingston. (They didn't stand in Brent, Holderness or the North Yorkshire seat all of which they had contested last time round.)