My UK Election Predictions and Major Party Prospects

[Silent Hunter]

All seats done.

Conservatives 203 (+39)

The Tories have no chance of winning this. Even the Daily Mail effectively said Howard was trying to prevent Labour winning another landslide. He'll succeed in that as the foxhunting factor means that normal service is resumed in a number of rural seats. Chance of some pickups in East London. Likely to lose about 5 seats to the Liberals

Labour 352 (-47)

It's not going to be 1997 and 2001. Labour will lose about 40 seats to the Tories over foxhunting and other issues. 5 seats will go to the Liberals. I don't think the loss of the Muslim vote will make a significant difference.

Liberal Democrats 60 (+6)

In terms of % vote, they will not reach the 1983 Alliance Level. Will gain seats equally off Labour and the Tories, but will lose the by-election pickups.

SNP 7 (+3)

The Scottish Regiments issue, Iraq and other factors may give them up to 3 extra seats.

Plaid Cymru 4 (no change)

Will stay at about the same level as last time. A little bit of turnover as they lose Ceredigon and pick up Ynys Mon.

UUP 4 (-1)

Will decline even further in NI.

DUP 7 (No change)

Gain one, lose one by virtue of a pickup and Hunter's retirement in Basingstoke.

SDLP 2 (-1)

The Catholic vote is increasingly going Sinn Fein. The SDLP is danger of political death, which is a pity.

Sinn Fein 5 (+1)

Gain a seat as the Catholic vote grows in % and trends towards them.

Predicted Labour majority 58 (-94)

[Tory]

Labour Party 384
Conservative Party 183
Liberal Democrats 59
Scottish National Party 5
Plaid Cymru 4   
Democratic Unionist Party 7
Ulster Unionist Party 6
Sinn Féin 4
Social Democratic and Labour Party 2

I randomly(sort of) picked out numbers for England. I actually used logic and reasoning for NI and Wales.

[Silent Hunter]

Updated.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Ok can someone tell me the date and time for these and does anyone know when ill be able to watch them over here?

maybe even live?

[Silent Hunter]

Do you meant the election results.

Expected date for the election is 5 May. Polls close at 10 pm London time and the results start about an hour after (depends how quick Sunderland South is). If you're in DC, start watching from 6pm to about midnight. The Northern Ireland results will come in during Friday afternoon.

I'm not sure about seeing them live on TV. Possibly on BBC World. The BBC website will have constantly updated results on it though.

[Silent Hunter]

Updated- all seats now done.

Discuss.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing I've been thinking about... how much did Foot and Mouth inflate Tory numbers in rural seats last time round?

[Ben.]

All seats done.

Conservatives 203 (+39)

The Tories have no chance of winning this. Even the Daily Mail effectively said Howard was trying to prevent Labour winning another landslide. He'll succeed in that as the foxhunting factor means that normal service is resumed in a number of rural seats. Chance of some pickups in East London. Likely to lose about 5 seats to the Liberals

Labour 352 (-47)

It's not going to be 1997 and 2001. Labour will lose about 40 seats to the Tories over foxhunting and other issues. 5 seats will go to the Liberals. I don't think the loss of the Muslim vote will make a significant difference.

Liberal Democrats 60 (+6)

In terms of % vote, they will not reach the 1983 Alliance Level. Will gain seats equally off Labour and the Tories, but will lose the by-election pickups.

SNP 7 (+3)

The Scottish Regiments issue, Iraq and other factors may give them up to 3 extra seats.

Plaid Cymru 4 (no change)

Will stay at about the same level as last time. A little bit of turnover as they lose Ceredigon and pick up Ynys Mon.

UUP 4 (-1)

Will decline even further in NI.

DUP 7 (No change)

Gain one, lose one by virtue of a pickup and Hunter's retirement in Basingstoke.

SDLP 2 (-1)

The Catholic vote is increasingly going Sinn Fein. The SDLP is danger of political death, which is a pity.

Sinn Fein 5 (+1)

Gain a seat as the Catholic vote grows in % and trends towards them.

Predicted Labour majority 58 (-94)

Tories won't break 200 seats, 190 or so i my bet the LDs despite a much bigger vote share (22-23% compared to 18% last time) will have a hard time breaking 60 seats, and are likley to lose seats to the Tories as well as make gains from them say 6 gains to 2-4 losses while against Labour the best they can hope for it 6-7 wins IMHO.   

[minionofmidas]

One thing I've been thinking about... how much did Foot and Mouth inflate Tory numbers in rural seats last time round?

Not by that very much...by just about as little as foxhunting will is my guess actually.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing I've been thinking about... how much did Foot and Mouth inflate Tory numbers in rural seats last time round?

Not by that very much...by just about as little as foxhunting will is my guess actually.

I'm going to have to find that map of foot and mouth cases by county

[Rural Radical]

I dont understand why everybody thinks that the fox hunting ban will have much effect on the results. Sure it will make Cons supporting hunters vote Con but they would anyway (working on the 2001 campaign told me that that conservatives always vote). On the other hand it would make opponents who didnt vote last time or voted lib dem or green more likely to support a Labour MP who supported the ban.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A majority of people living in rural areas actually support a ban on fox hunting...

[Silent Hunter]

New Populus poll:
Labour 38 (+1)
Conservative 33 (no change)
Lib Dem 21 (no change)
Others 9 (-1)

Equals Labour majority of 120.

Half believe Labour will get less than 100 majority, 54% of Tories believe Labour get overall majority, only 28% Tories (down from 45% August 2004 I think)

Brown favoured successor to Blair.

[Ben.]

New Populus poll:
Labour 38 (+1)
Conservative 33 (no change)
Lib Dem 21 (no change)
Others 9 (-1)

Equals Labour majority of 120.

Half believe Labour will get less than 100 majority, 54% of Tories believe Labour get overall majority, only 28% Tories (down from 45% August 2004 I think)

Brown favoured successor to Blair.

ICM and NOP where both almost identical to that poll... Tactical voting and local fluctuations probably mean that such a share would lead to a Labour majority of between 90-110 rather than 120 though.

NOP: January 2005

LAB 38%
CON 32%
LD 21%

ICM: January 2005

LAB 38%
CON 31%
LDEM 21%

…so it all looks like a very slight dip for Labour but well within the MOE, furthermore the Populous Poll may or may not show that this dip was pretty short lived.   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Populus have started to use a large sample size (1500)... I still have doubts about them, but their new poll (done over t'weekend) is more or less in line wi' t'uther polls