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Author Topic: UK local elections, May 2012  (Read 55674 times)
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change08
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« Reply #300 on: May 08, 2012, 06:07:51 pm »
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The BNP results are hilarious. Seriously.
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« Reply #301 on: May 10, 2012, 01:27:33 pm »
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OK, time for some Sheffield maps.

First, winning party.



Next, Lab/LD swing from 2011 to 2012 (UK definition of swing, so average of vote changes rather than the sum).  Colours are in increments of 4%, with the darkest colours being 12% to 16%.  NB no wards had swings to LD between 4% and 8%.



Next, Lab/LD swing from the last time these seats were contested, in 2008.  Same colour scheme as above, except that the darkest red is from 20% up to over 29% (in Hillsborough); I ran out of shades of red.



Now vote share maps for the five parties with full slates.  First Labour, with 10% increments, the darkest shade being 70% to 80%.  This was a pretty good performance, though not quite as good as last year in most places.



The Lib Dems, again in 10% increments, the darkest being 40% to 50%.  In most wards this is slightly down on last year.



The Greens, in 5% increments.  They got 31% in Broomhill and 49% in Central.  They did well in many places, but slipped a bit in the east of the city.



UKIP, in 5% increments.  I've included Steve Moxon in Dore & Totley as his name was still on the ballot paper as UKIP.  In Stocksbridge & Upper Don, where they came second, their candidate was a Stocksbridge town councillor.



Finally the Tories, again in 5% increments (though there are no wards in the 15% to 20% or 25% to 30% categories).  Except in Dore & Totley and Fulwood they did terribly, coming fifth citywide and being beaten by the Greens and/or UKIP in every ward other than those two.  I believe that in terms of citywide share this was the worst ever performance by the Conservative Party in Sheffield local elections since they first started standing as such.





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« Reply #302 on: May 10, 2012, 04:08:38 pm »
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The dark (partial) red belt on the swing map is really interesting, actually.
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« Reply #303 on: May 11, 2012, 05:53:38 am »
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I have gone through all the English council webpages so you don't have to and printed all the English 2012 results off into one file.  Here it is:
https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/teale-elections/england12.psom.pdf.
This is 32.7MB so I would recommend downloading it first rather than trying to open it directly in your web browser.  Good luck trying to find anything.
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #304 on: May 11, 2012, 06:13:12 am »
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2012, 06:22:59 am by afleitch »Logged

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« Reply #305 on: May 11, 2012, 12:43:53 pm »
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.

I take ot you mean they'll redo the count from scratch, rather than have a byelection
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« Reply #306 on: May 14, 2012, 03:50:26 pm »
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Yorkshire & Humber

Regions;

South Yorkshire     West Yorkshire     
Lab 51.0% (+19.7%)  Lab 44.3% (+15.8%)
Con 12.5% (-7.9%)   Con 24.4% (-8.9%)
Lib 11.4% (-9.3%)   Lib 12.3% (-6.7%)
Ind  7.5% (-3.2%)   Ind  4.1% (+0.6%)
Rig  11.8% (+1.3%)  Lef  9.7% (+4.6%)
 UKI  7.8% (+4.1%)   Grn  5.6% (+1.2%)
 EDP  2.6% (+2.2%)   Res  3.5% (+3.4%)
 BNP  1.2% (-5.1%)   GrS  0.3% (+0.0%)
 DNt  0.1% (+0.1%)   TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)
Lef  5.8% (-0.6%)    SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)
 Grn  4.7% (-0.4%)   [NHS 0.1% (-0.1%)]
 CmG  0.5% (-0.3%)   [S-A 0.0% (-0.0%)]
 TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)   [SOS 0.0% (-0.0%)]
 SLP  0.0% (+0.0%)   [ACr 0.0% (-0.0%)]
 [LfL 0.3% (-0.3%)] Rig  5.2% (-5.3%)
 [S-A 0.1% (-0.1%)]  UKI  3.6% (+3.2%)
Oth  0.0% (+0.0%)    EDP  1.1% (+0.8%)
 MRL  0.0% (+0.0%)   BNP  0.3% (-9.1%)
                     DNt  0.2% (-0.0%)
                     BPP  0.0% (+0.0%)
                     [New 0.1% (-0.1%)]
                     [BrV 0.0% (-0.0%)]
                     [B!P 0.0% (-0.0%)]

North Yorkshire;

Craven             Harrogate
Con 50.1% (-4.9%)  Con 64.4% (-1.4%)
Lib 17.0% (-10.4%) Lib 12.9% (-14.1%)
Lab 16.4% (+9.0%)  Lab 12.8% (+11.3%)
Ind 14.2% (+4.0%)  Lib* 4.1% (+4.1%)
Grn  2.2% (+2.2%)  Ind  3.6% (+0.6%)
                   UKI  2.1% (+1.4%)
                   [BNP 2.0% (-2.0%)]

South Yorkshire;

Barnsley           Doncaster          Rotherham          Sheffield
Lab 56.4% (+25.0%) Lab 50.9% (+21.8%) Lab 55.3% (+19.1%) Lab 46.8% (+16.8%)
Ind 22.6% (-6.2%)  Con 18.0% (-6.8%)  Con 16.6% (-12.5%) Lib 21.9% (-15.0%)
Con 11.0% (-4.2%)  Ind 10.2% (-6.4%)  UKI 14.8% (-0.4%)  UKI 10.4% (+8.9%)
EDP  5.0% (+5.0%)  Lib  8.3% (-7.4%)  Ind  5.7% (-1.6%)  Grn 10.4% (+1.3%)
UKI  2.2% (+2.1%)  EDP  7.8% (+5.8%)  BNP  4.9% (-2.0%)  Con  8.2% (-7.8%)
BNP  1.6% (-15.4%) CmG  2.4% (-1.4%)  Lib  1.5% (-3.8%)  Ind  0.9% (-0.4%)
Lib  0.5% (-6.1%)  UKI  0.9% (+0.5%)  Grn  0.7% (+0.7%)  TUS  1.0% (+1.0%)
SLP  0.3% (+0.3%)  Grn  0.8% (-5.0%)  TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)  EDP  0.1% (+0.1%)
TUS  0.2% (+0.2%)  DNt  0.6% (+0.6%)  MRL  0.1% (+0.1%)  [BNP 4.0% (-4.0%)]
[Grn 0.7% (-0.7%)] [BNP 1.6% (-1.6%)]                    [LfL 0.8% (-0.8%)]
                   [LfL 0.2% (-0.2%)]

West Yorkshire;

Bradford           Calderdale         Kirklees           Leeds              Wakefield
Lab 37.6% (+8.7%)  Lab 40.4% (+18.4%) Lab 42.9% (+16.7%) Lab 46.0% (+17.2%) Lab 56.2% (+21.5%)
Con 23.4% (-13.6%) Con 31.0% (-4.8%)  Con 27.1% (-4.2%)  Con 22.0% (-8.7%)  Con 23.6% (-11.4%)
Res 14.7% (+14.4%) Lib 19.8% (-8.0%)  Lib 12.4% (-5.9%)  Lib 12.9% (-6.2%)  UKI  7.9% (+7.7%)
Lib 13.5% (-8.3%)  Ind  3.9% (+1.6%)  Grn 10.2% (+2.6%)  Grn  5.4% (+1.6%)  Ind  6.5% (-4.4%)
Grn  5.2% (-0.0%)  Grn  3.8% (+2.0%)  Ind  4.9% (+2.7%)  UKI  4.6% (+3.7%)  Lib  3.3% (-5.8%)
UKI  2.8% (+2.4%)  TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)  UKI  1.5% (+1.5%)  Ind  4.5% (+0.4%)  Grn  1.1% (-0.2%)
Ind  1.4% (+1.4%)  BPP  0.5% (+0.5%)  EDP  0.5% (+0.2%)  EDP  2.6% (+2.5%)  EDP  0.8% (+0.8%)
DNt  0.8% (-0.1%)  [BNP 7.9% (-7.9%)] TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)  GrS  1.1% (+0.1%)  TUS  0.5% (+0.5%)
BNP  0.4% (-4.6%)  [EDP 2.3% (-2.3%)] [BNP 12.6%(-12.6%)]BNP  0.5% (-10.9%) [BNP 8.2% (-8.2%)]
SLP  0.1% (+0.1%)                     [NHS 0.8% (-0.8%)] TUS  0.3% (+0.3%)  [S-A 0.4% (-0.4%)]
[EDP 0.1% (-0.1%)]                    [New 0.4% (-0.4%)]                    [BrV 0.2% (-0.2%)]
[ACP 0.0% (-0.0%)]                    [SOS 0.2% (-0.2%)]
                                      [Bl! 0.0% (-0.0%)]

East Riding of Yorkshire;

Kingston-upon-Hull
Lab 53.3% (+19.2%)
Lib 31.8% (-9.9%)
Con  6.3% (-7.7%)
UKI  5.5% (+4.3%)
Grn  1.7% (-0.1%)
N-F  1.2% (+1.2%)
[Ind 4.9% (-4.9%)]
[EDP 2.2% (-2.2%)]

Lincolnshire;

N/E Lincolnshire
Lab 42.6% (+20.0%)
Con 23.5% (-14.7%)
UKI 18.0% (+18.0%)
Lib 13.3% (-16.2%)
Ind  1.4% (-6.9%)
Grn  1.1% (+1.1%)
[EDP 0.9% (-0.9%)]
[Gen 0.6% (-0.6%)]

Swings since 2011;

South Yorkshire        West Yorkshire
Barn. Ind to Lab 0.9%  Brad. Con to Lab 0.8%
Donc. Con to Lab 2.9%  Cald. Con to Lab 3.3%
Roth. Con to Lab 3.0%  Kirk. Con to Lab 3.0%
Shef. Lib to Lab 1.4%  Leed. Con to Lab 2.0%
                       Wake. Con to Lab 3.2%

SYrk. Con to Lab 2.3%  WYrk. Con to Lab 2.2%
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« Reply #307 on: May 15, 2012, 06:34:03 am »
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.

A recount is taking place today.
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« Reply #308 on: May 15, 2012, 05:09:30 pm »
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-18017940

Langside Ward in Glasgow may be re-run follwing the discovery of an uncounted ballot box in Battlefield. It may affect the elimination of some candidates in the earlier round. On the 8th Count a Green was elected over an SNP. Probably unlikely to change the overall result though.

EDIT: I stand corrected. The box contained up to 400 ballot papers.

A recount is taking place today.

Council website says the recount confirmed the Green took the final seat and "as the result of the rerun is not different, the Returning Officer does not intend to take any further action".

 
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« Reply #309 on: May 16, 2012, 12:15:13 am »
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Birmingham by constituency




West Lancashire




Wolverhampton







Stockport








Halton






Wyre Forest







Sefton




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« Reply #310 on: May 16, 2012, 05:23:29 pm »
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Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.
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« Reply #311 on: May 17, 2012, 11:25:09 am »
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Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this Smiley
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« Reply #312 on: May 17, 2012, 11:44:10 am »
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Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this Smiley

My first stab. Some polling districts had 4 parties seperated by a dozen votes, so I'll be doing party maps soon.

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« Reply #313 on: May 17, 2012, 01:43:34 pm »
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Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this Smiley

My first stab. Some polling districts had 4 parties seperated by a dozen votes, so I'll be doing party maps soon.



That is beautiful.

Also, the most noticeable thing about the map is that the party split really amplifies conservative strength.
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« Reply #314 on: May 17, 2012, 05:12:32 pm »
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Some Scottish local authorities have released ballot box data from the elections. This allows you to match up first preference votes etc to each polling district. As Edinburgh have been kind enough to release the data, that's my first port of call.

Can't wait for this Smiley

My first stab. Some polling districts had 4 parties seperated by a dozen votes, so I'll be doing party maps soon.



What's Orange?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #315 on: May 17, 2012, 05:50:14 pm »
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Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.
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« Reply #316 on: May 17, 2012, 06:00:15 pm »
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Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.

Did they finish 5th in Edinburgh?
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« Reply #317 on: May 18, 2012, 04:01:57 am »
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Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.

Did they finish 5th in Edinburgh?

Yep, they got totally annihilated, even the greens got nearly twice as much as them. I really can't see them holding Edinburgh west now, in fact they will probably just be left with three or four seats in Scotland, I'm thinking of the highland seats and maybe Ming Campbell's seat. As Sibboleth said, the mighty really have fallen.
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« Reply #318 on: May 18, 2012, 04:50:27 am »
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What's that Librul enclave like? (Apart from the presumable personal vote factor.)

Also, Labour polling divisions in the New Town? Wtf? Studenty Green vote is studenty.
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« Reply #319 on: May 18, 2012, 05:42:24 am »
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What's that Librul enclave like? (Apart from the presumable personal vote factor.)

Also, Labour polling divisions in the New Town? Wtf? Studenty Green vote is studenty.

As far as I can tell (and I might be wrong) that's Corstorphine (or at least an area of it), which is basically rich commuters into Edinburgh with a lots of independent shops, I think its more in line with the orange book  than with the Beveridge group, which could explain the relative strength of the Lib Dems.
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« Reply #320 on: May 18, 2012, 06:30:52 am »
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What's that Librul enclave like? (Apart from the presumable personal vote factor.)

Also, Labour polling divisions in the New Town? Wtf? Studenty Green vote is studenty.

What I really love about this map is that it is as if (with the exception of the Greens and the SNP) someone has peeled away twenty years of paint.

The Green vote is concentrated enough to have won them about 6 or so FPTP seats under the old system. The map itself doesn't do them justice and I'm working on vote share maps for each party. I'll be starting with the Greens. They did very well in Leith Walk, which is coloured solid red, even though Labour were only marginally ahead of the SNP. The Greens were polling between 17 and 25% there

In the centre of the city, the votes themselves become 4 way ties. The Labour parts of City Centre Ward (the ballot boxes were combined), are not well populated. The area is the old Townhead part of the city and the beginning of the sprawl towards Leith. Labour polled 162 votes, the Tories 156 and the SNP 148 and the Greens 115. So only 6 votes seperated the top 2 and 47 votes seperated the top 4. Next door, the Old Town went 41% Tory.

Worth noting that postal votes are not counted in any of these maps. They are simply collected by ward, so they don't tell us much. However the Tories won City Centre ward and looking at the totals, that was on the strength of the postal vote.

The Lib Dem enclave (and the Lib Dems were just shy of winning two neighbouring districts) is indeed Corstorphine proper. It's Paul Edies personal vote there. Just north is a red patch in Drum Brae/Gyle ward. This is Clermiston, a 1950's housing estate. It's an overspill estate. While the Labour vote isn't strong enough to outvote the neighbouring areas, it's nice to see it make an appearance.

I'm still getting percentage totals for Edinburgh (and spotted just one mistake). I've still to tackle the east of the city.

For 'lols' the lowest % share for the Lib Dems I've found is 0.84% in part of Sighthill/Gorgie ward. The highest Green share so far is 48.85% in part of the Fountainbridge/Craiglockhart ward.
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« Reply #321 on: May 18, 2012, 06:38:14 am »
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I'll be starting with the Greens. They did very well in Leith Walk, which is coloured solid red
Neither of which is surprising. Smiley
Quote
In the centre of the city, the votes themselves become 4 way ties. The Labour parts of City Centre Ward (the ballot boxes were combined), are not well populated. The area is the old Townhead part of the city and the beginning of the sprawl towards Leith. Labour polled 162 votes, the Tories 156 and the SNP 148 and the Greens 115. So only 6 votes seperated the top 2 and 47 votes seperated the top 4. Next door, the Old Town went 41% Tory.
"New Town", surely? The bit of it bitten off and included in the red is mostly the pubcrawling bit of Rose Street etc I suppose.
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« Reply #322 on: May 18, 2012, 08:48:29 am »
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I'll be starting with the Greens. They did very well in Leith Walk, which is coloured solid red
Neither of which is surprising. Smiley
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In the centre of the city, the votes themselves become 4 way ties. The Labour parts of City Centre Ward (the ballot boxes were combined), are not well populated. The area is the old Townhead part of the city and the beginning of the sprawl towards Leith. Labour polled 162 votes, the Tories 156 and the SNP 148 and the Greens 115. So only 6 votes seperated the top 2 and 47 votes seperated the top 4. Next door, the Old Town went 41% Tory.
"New Town", surely? The bit of it bitten off and included in the red is mostly the pubcrawling bit of Rose Street etc I suppose.

Yes. My apologies; typo. Should of course read New Town. And the red bit of the NewTown is the pub district/bus station/theatreland area.
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« Reply #323 on: May 21, 2012, 06:11:11 pm »
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Ah, how the mighty have fallen. The LibDems.

Did they finish 5th in Edinburgh?

Yep, they got totally annihilated, even the greens got nearly twice as much as them. I really can't see them holding Edinburgh west now, in fact they will probably just be left with three or four seats in Scotland, I'm thinking of the highland seats and maybe Ming Campbell's seat. As Sibboleth said, the mighty really have fallen.

Doubtful that Ming'll run again as well!
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« Reply #324 on: May 23, 2012, 03:16:12 pm »
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Kennedy might hold his seat, if the boundary changes go through, i reckon he'll beat Alexander for the selection
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