UK local elections, May 2012

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I thought I'd start this now as a place to put the latest development in the Liverpool Lib Dems/Warren Bradley soap opera:
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/liverpool-news/local-news/2012/01/10/warren-bradley-to-stand-as-indepedent-candidate-in-liverpool-council-elections-100252-30090472/

Anyway, there are elections in all Scottish and Welsh unitaries, all English metropolitan councils, most English unitaries, and some English second tier districts.  (Full list here.)  There's also, of course, the London mayor and Assembly election, and certain cities are being forced to have referendums on introducing elected mayors of our own.

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There will be a referendum on whether Doncaster should abandon the elected mayor system.

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The Liverpool Post says that Liverpool is going to bypass the Government's referendum and go straight to having an elected mayor.

I don't like the sound of this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I presume that Liverpool can be trusted not to elect another Peter Davies, but he isn't exactly the only walking argument against elected mayors in the UK.

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Polls reported on Look North last night show "Yes" ahead in the elected mayor referendums in all four Yorkshire cities that are having them.  Retaining the mayor is also ahead in Doncaster.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17304093

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So, what's going to happen in Bradford?

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In Sheffield there are five full slates: Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens, the Tories and UKIP (in order of relevance).  There are five TUSC candidates, one English Democrat and three Independents, one of whom is the Lib Dem (now presumably ex-Lib Dem) who lost in Crookes last year, standing again in his old ward.

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Nominees for the single vacancy for Molesey East ward, Elmbridge district council, Surrey.

"Badger" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Steve Bax (Con)
"Bone" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Chinners" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Niger Cooper (Molesey Residents Association)
"Crazy Dave" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Ben Griffin (Lab)
"Large" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Monkey the Drummer" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
Pea Gee Tipps (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
"Scunny" (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
SMFMusic Lab (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)

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Preview of the elections in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire.  To a large extent I've already posted this elsewhere, but it's updated a bit.

NB to anyone who isn't familiar with our local elections: all these councils elect by thirds, so these seats were last contested in 2008, and each ward has two councillors who aren't up this year.

Barnsley

Currently Lab 42, Barnsley Independent Group (hereafter BIG) 12, Con 6, no party 2.

(Of the two "no party" councillors, one is in Monk Bretton and was elected as a non-BIG independent, and the other is in Darton East and was originally elected as BIG in 2010.)

2008 was BIG 9 (plus an extra one in a double vacancy election in Old Town), Lab 8, Con 2, LD 1, Ind 1.  The LD was in Dearne South and has defected to Labour, so BIG and Labour are each defending 9 seats,  the Tories are defending the two Penistone wards, and there's the aforementioned independent in Monk Bretton (but he is not defending his seat).

As the numbers above show, BIG have struggled since 2008, with only three of their councillors elected since then.  Dodworth is their stronghold, which they won in both 2010 and 2011 and so they have all three councillors there, and they also won North East (home of Grimethorpe Colliery Band) in 2011.  So in 2012 they're defending in seven wards where they don't have any other councillors: Darfield, Hoyland Milton, Kingstone, Old Town, Rockingham, Stairfoot, Worsbrough.

The Boundary Commission's initial proposals move Penistone West ward into Nick Clegg's constituency, and presumably because of that the Lib Dems do have a candidate there for once; it might be interesting to see how they do.  It was held fairly comfortably by the Tories in 2011, though, as was neighbouring Penistone East.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, BIG 13, English Democrats 12, BNP 4, UKIP 3, Lib Dem 2, Socialist Labour 2, TUSC 1, Independent (non-BIG) 4.

Doncaster

Currently Lab 44, Con 9, LD 6, Ind 4.  Three of the Independents were elected as such and are listed on the Council website as "Alliance of Independent Members" the fourth was elected for the Community Group, who used to have several members on the Council; he is defending his seat under that label again, so I don't know why he's Independent on the website.  The Council of course also has an English Democrat Mayor (ugh); there will also be a referendum on abolishing the mayoral system.

2008 was Lab 8, Ind 5, LD 4, Con 3, Community Group 1.  The Independent in Great North Road has defected to Labour, and the Independent seat in Rossington went Labour in a by-election.  So Labour are defending 10 seats, the Lib Dems 4 and the Tories 3, and all four independent seats are up.

The Tories have all three seats in their three wards: Sprotborough, Finningley and Torne Valley.  Of these only Sprotborough looks at all marginal.

The Lib Dems are defending all their seats outside Bessacarr & Cantley this year (and even that ward was quite close last year).  The other wards they're defending are Mexborough, Town Moor and Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandal & Barnby Dun.  The results from last year are not promising for them: they came last in both EKSBD and Town Moor with embarrassing vote shares, and while they did come second in Mexborough it was a pretty distant second.

The Independents in Balby and Edlington & Warmsworth are defending their seats.  All three seats held by Independents (those two and Armthorpe) and also Thorne (Community Group) are in wards won reasonably comfortably by Labour last year.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, Lib Dem 12, English Democrats 7, Community Group 2, Democratic Nationalists 1, UKIP 1, Green 1, Independent 8.

Rotherham

Currently Lab 54, Con 7, BNP 1, Vacant 1.

2008 was a bad year for Labour in Rotherham as many places were, but in Rotherham that means they still won two thirds of the seats: Lab 14, Con 5, BNP 2.  The Tory elected in Anston & Woodsetts defected to Labour, and the BNP councillor elected in Brinsworth & Catcliffe had a somewhat bizarre career (he's the one who supposely joined the National Front without realising that they were a bunch of racists) which ended with him being kicked off the council for non-attendance.

So the Tories are defending four seats: Sitwell, which they held last year, and Hellaby, Wales and Wickersley which were won by Labour.  The BNP are defending Maltby, and Brinsworth & Catcliffe is vacant; both of those were won comfortably by Labour last year.  Everything else is Labour, Labour, Labour.

Is a redwash possible?  Last year Sitwell was Tory by 8%, so it doesn't seem implausible.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, UKIP 12, BNP 5, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, TUSC 1, Raving Loony 1, Independent 5.

Sheffield

Currently Lab 50, LD 32, Green 2.

2008 was LD 16, Lab 11, Green 1.  The LD elected in Gleadless Valley went Independent in 2009 and then Labour in 2011.

The Lib Dems are defending the following wards which Labour won in 2011: East Ecclesfield, West Ecclesfield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Hillsborough, Walkley, Broomhill, Crookes, Nether Edge, Mosborough.  Many of these were won by quite big margins last year; Hillsborough and Mosborough had margins over 20%.  West Ecclesfield was the narrowest Labour gain, the margin there being just over 3%.

Then the Lib Dems are defending six wards they did win last year.  Three of these, Stannington (won by just 5 votes), Graves Park and Beauchief & Greenhill, were fairly narrow holds (margins under 7% over Labour).  Ecclesall and Fulwood should be safe for them, while if Dore & Totley is vulnerable to anyone it'll be to the Tories.

The 12 wards Labour are defending all look pretty safe in the current climate.  The remaining ward is Central, which the Greens held narrowly (again over Labour) last year.

Candidates: Lab 28, Lib Dem 28, Con 28, Green 28, UKIP 28, TUSC 5, Eng Dem 1, Independent 3.

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Now for West Yorkshire, which is perhaps a bit more interesting, with three hung councils, one of which is Bradford.  The system of elections by thirds is the same as in South Yorkshire.

Bradford

Currently Lab 43, Con 27, Lib Dem 11, Green 3, Ind 5 (2 ex-Tory, 2 ex-BNP, 1 ex-Labour), Vacant 1.  The Council is run by a minority Labour administration.  It's worth remembering that this district contains a lot of areas which aren't part of Bradford as most people understand it.

2008 was Con 14, Lab 9, LD 6, Green 1.  The Tory elected in Craven is now Independent and is defending his seat, the Tory elected in Keighley West has resigned from the Council, and the Tory elected in Toller defected to Labour.  So, including the vacancy, the Tories are defending 12 seats, Labour 10, the Lib Dems 6, the Greens 1, and an Independent is defending Craven.

Of the Tory defences, Bowling & Barkerend, Clayton & Fairweather Green, Heaton, Keighley East and Keighley West were won by Labour last year, only Keighley West having a margin under 10%.  (How the Tories ever managed to win some of these places may seem a bit of a mystery, but as we know Bradford politics can be seriously weird.)  Queensbury was won by the BNP (now Independent).  The other six were Tory holds, Thornton & Allerton having the closest margin at just under 10% over Labour.

Of the Lib Dem defences, Baildon was won by the Tories last year with the Lib Dems in a poor third, and Bradford Moor, Eccleshill and Windhill & Wrose were won by Labour, Bradford Moor by an huge margin.  Idle & Thackley looks fairly safe for the Lib Dems (whose candidate posts on Vote UK), Bolton & Undercliffe a bit less so.

Craven, being defended by an ex-Tory Independent, is generally a safe Tory ward, and Shipley looks fairly safe for the Greens.

All the wards Labour are defending this year, including Toller where the councillor was elected as a Tory, were won by them last year, some with huge majorites.  The wards with huge majorities, of course, include Toller.  However, Keighley Central was only narrowly gained from a defending Tory.

Of course, a certain recent byelection result may have an impact here.  Respect seem a bit disorganised, and although they had at least 15 candidates only 12 of them actually got their papers in on time.  One of the wards they missed was Toller, which otherwise would have been a likely gain for them.  They're likely to threaten what would otherwise have been easy Labour holds in wards like City, Manningham and Little Horton, and similarly what looked like a nailed on Labour gain in Heaton could well go to Respect instead.  Other wards with added uncertainty would include Clayton & Fairweather Green (where the Green candidate from the byelection is standing for Respect - isn't Bradford politics fun?) and maybe Bradford Moor.

Candidates: Lab 30, Lib Dem 30, Con 28, Green 13, Respect 12, UKIP 8, Democratic Nationalists 3, Socialist Labour 1, BNP 1, Independent 1.

Calderdale

Currently Con 21, Lab 13, LD 13, Ind 4. The council is run by a Lib Dem/Labour coalition.

2008 was Con 8, LD 6, Lab 2, BNP 1. The BNP candidate elected in Illingworth & Mixenden is now an Independent, as is the Lib Dem in Warley (Independent Lib Dem on the Council website). Also, the Lib Dem elected in Greetland & Stainland defected to the Tories, so the Tories are defending nine wards, the Lib Dems four and Labour two, with the remaining two now independent.

Of the nine wards they're defending, the Tories won six last year. Labour won Todmorden and Sowerby Bridge, and the Lib Dems won Greetland & Stainland (as mentioned above, this seat is only Tory by defection).  Of the six wards Tory in both 2008 and 2011, Brighouse and Rastrick were close enough that they look plausible Labour targets, while Skircoat is perhaps a rare example of a potential Lib Dem gain.

The Lib Dems had a bad year here too in 2011, only winning Greetland & Stainland and Warley. Of the wards they're defending, Labour won Calder (the ward which includes Hebden Bridge) and Park (in Halifax), both comfortably, while the Tories won Luddendenfoot (Labour close behind with the LDs well back in third) and Elland (close three way).

Illingworth & Mixenden, BNP in 2008, was Labour last year with the Tories second.  The councillor elected in 2008 is defending his seat as an Independent.

Candidates: Lab 17, Con 17, Lib Dem 16, Green 6, TUSC 1, British People's Party 1 (though the candidate has apparently been expelled from the party since the nominations were handed in), Independent 3.


Kirklees

Currently Lab 27, Con 21, LD 14, Green 4, Ind 3, with a Labour minority administration.

2008 was Con 8, Lab 7, LD 7, Green 1, with no changes since.

Of the wards the Tories are defending, they won six in 2011, while Holme Valley North was won by an Independent and Kirkburton by a Green.  (Kirkburton is interesting as a Green/Tory marginal.)  Denby Dale and Liversedge & Gomersal were close enough that they look plausible Labour targets.

The Lib Dems had a bad night in 2011 as in many Mets, only winning two wards.  Of the other five they're defending this year, Dewsbury West, Dalton and Golcar were won by Labour, while Colne Valley and Lindley were won by the Tories.  Colne Valley was a three-way marginal last year (Con 1656, Lab 1554, LD 1425).

All seven of the wards Labour are defending this year went for them last year, and none look close.

Newsome has three Green councillors and they won it comfortably last year.

Candidates: Lab 23, Con 23, Lib Dem 23, Green 19, TUSC 3, UKIP 3, English Democrat 1, Independent 5.

Leeds

Currently Lab 55, Con 21, Lib Dem 16, Morley Borough Independents (MBI) 5, Green 2.

2008 was Lab 13, Lib Dem 9, Con 8 (plus one in a double vacancy), MBI 2, Green 1, and there have been no changes.

Of the eight wards the Tories are defending, Roundhay and Temple Newsam were won fairly comfortably by Labour last year, and the Tories held the other six.  Four of them look safe, while in Guiseley & Rawdon and Calverley & Farsley Labour weren't that far behind.

Of the nine wards the Lib Dems are defending, they only won two last year (Weetwood and Otley & Yeadon); Labour won six, a couple by huge margins (you'd never believe that Gipton & Harehills had recently voted Lib Dem from the 2011 result), and Horsforth turned into a three-way marginal which the Tories won.

All the wards Labour are defending look pretty safe.  Then the two Morley wards are being defended by the MBIs, who last year held North easily but lost South narrowly to Labour -- and Farnley & Wortley by the Greens, who held it by a few hundred votes last year (but didn't win it in 2010).

Candidates: Lab 33, Con 33, Lib Dem 30, Green 19, UKIP 14, English Democrats 11, Alliance for Green Socialism 9, TUSC 4, BNP 1, Independent 4.


Wakefield

Currently Lab 40, Con 19, Ind 2, vacant 2.  One Independent was elected as such; the other one was elected as a Tory.

2008 was Con 11, Lab 8, Ind 3, with a double vacancy in Hemsworth, the runner-up there being Labour.  The Independent elected in Featherstone has joined Labour, and the Tory elected in Horbury & South Ossett is now an Independent.  There are vacancies in two wards, Hemsworth (Ind) and Pontefract North (Con).  So, including the two vacancies, the Tories are defending 10 seats, Labour 8 and independents 3.

The two Independents, Graham Jesty (Horbury & South Ossett; elected as Con) and Wilf Benson (South Elmsall & South Kirkby), are both defending their seats.  Both wards were won by Labour last year, the former rather narrowly (over Con) and the latter by a landslide.  Hemsworth was also comfortably Labour last year.

Last year the Tories only won four wards: Ossett, Wakefield Rural, Wakefield South and Wakefield West.  All of these were marginal over Labour (within 5%) except Wakefield South, which looks safe.  The other six wards the Tories are defending (Ackworth et al, Crofton et al, Pontefract N, Pontefract S, Stanley & Outwood E, Wrenthorpe & Outwood W) were won by Labour; only Pontefract S and Wrenthorpe & Outwood W were within 10%, and those not by much.

Everywhere Labour are defending was won comfortably by them last year.  Their best performance was 80% in Airedale & Ferry Fryston.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, UKIP 10, Lib Dem 7, TUSC 2, Green 2, English Democrats 1, Independent 2, no description 4.

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A UKIP candidate in Sheffield has been suspended by the party over a blog post he made about Norwegian mass murderer Anders Breivik's "manifesto".

The UKIP statement is at http://www.ukipsheffield.co.uk/2012/05/suspension-of-candidate/
and for more on the case and the candidate in question (who, shall we say, has a bit of form) including the text of the post in question, there's a thread on the Sheffield Forum:
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?t=981944

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There are a couple of posts about the local elections in Bradford on the Guardian's Northerner.  I'm not expecting a particularly positive reaction to them.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/may/01/respect-george-galloway-bradford-labour-local-elections
and
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/may/01/bradford-elections-george-galloway-respect-labour

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Just voted.
Abdul Khayum (Lab)
Against elected mayor

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What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

A hopeless cause, I know, but I do wish people used a better way of measuring the results than councillors gained/lost.  The variation in ward size in the UK is large enough that that can be misleading.  (The fact I live in one of the bigger ones might have something to do with my views on this...)

Also worth saying that Labour's performance in last year's English locals wasn't that bad, really.  (Scotland, of course, was a different matter and affected the perception of things a lot.)  They did well in some areas (most of the Mets, for example) and not so well in others; overall I think it was about in line with their poll rating at the time.

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Early rumours suggest No to mayor in Birmingham; hopefully others will follow.

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This guy is tweeting from the Bradford count:
http://twitter.com/#!/UmarOnline

He seems to think Respect are doing well in Great Horton and Bradford Moor (both outside the West constituency).

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Sunderland are declaring atm according to Twitter. Fast, even for them.

Labour have apparently gained Barnes ward in Sunderland, which the Tories won narrowly last year.

Edit: and here are the figures: Barnes: Rebecca Atkinson (Lab) 2041; Gouilnara Dixon (Lib) 150; Tony Morrissey (Sitting Con councillor) 1486.  Not even close.

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Lib Dems wiped out in Sunderland.

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Rumours that Manchester is a redwash again.

Turnout seems to be bad in many places, though of course it was high last year and that's what it's being compared with.

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Curious rumours from Bradford, with Labour apparently having won the postal votes in City and Manningham, so much less promising for Respect than earlier.

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Apparently Labour have won Charlemont with Grove Vale on Sandwell MBC, which was the one ward there they didn't win last year.  So maybe another redwash on the cards.

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Some results are in in Rotherham, the first I've seen in Yorkshire.  Labour have comfortably won the two wards the BNP won in 2008 (Maltby and Brinsworth & Catcliffe) and have won Hellaby from the Tories (they did this last year as well).  But the Tories have held Sitwell so no redwash there.

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Lib Dems have apparently conceded to Respect in Bradford Moor.  (Via Umar Farooq on Twitter again.)

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Ind gain from Lab (elected as Con) in Rotherham, Anston and Woodsetts.

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Looks as if Bradford may have voted for a Mayor; that could be "interesting".

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Lab gain Chipping Norton