UK local elections, May 2012

[afleitch]

Up in Scotland the big question is whether the SNP can make further advances. The effects of a Lib Dem decline on an STV voting system is also intriguing. A stright Labour v SNP fight can squeeze out the smaller parties.

A dirty selection battle and threats of long standing Labour councillors running on an Independent Labour ticket coupled with the SNP's recent success means the key race will be the control for Glasgow. The SNP suffered from under nomination last time round, so the hope is that Glasgow will fall to NOC with the SNP hoping to equal or beat Labour this time round.

[afleitch]

So yeah, two weeks ago Labour saw it's budget in Glasgow pass by just 2 votes. There were also 7 defections from the party and a number of those who defected (and were deselected in London's cull a few months ago) will be running against the official Labour candidates.

[afleitch]

What Glasgow has in store;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_City_Council_election,_2012

[afleitch]

How does the number of candidates in Scotland compare with last time's? Up? Down?

Up. There's less 'undernomination' by the SNP and more minor party representation. The Greens are also better represented it seems.

[afleitch]

Once against, the political machinations of Blantyre's great and good on the political scene never ceases to amaze me.

[afleitch]

The number of candidates in 2007 was 2,607
Lab 521
SNP 437
Con 379
LD 331
SSP 126
Green 100
Solidarity 83
Ind 551
Others 79

I think the overall number of candidates this time is a bit down. According to a poster on another forum, the total this year is around 2,401. SNP is clearly up: from 437 to 612. Lab and Con are a bit down (498 and 360). LibDems have reduced their candidatures by 100 to 227. Greens are at 84. The far left has taken a big dip: just over 60 candidates between Sol and SSP

Well I'll be...

[afleitch]

A few words on Glasgow

Glasgow is being touted as the biggest municipal battle in Scotland and in the Scottish press as ‘second to London.’ Labour will 'loose' Glasgow in the sense that the party will loose it's majority. However the UK press not being intersted in such things will ignore the complexities of STV and instead have people on the 6 O'Clock news believe that something really phenomenal will have happened. Of course, it will have but just not in the way that people will be led to think.

This year saw a slew of resignations from the Labour group after a long running schism. In 2011 long standing (and to their defenders, hard working) councillors were deselected. Alleged ‘bullying’ during the budget debate began a series of resignations from the deselected councillors resulting in Labour loosing control of the council shortly before shutdown. A new party ‘Glasgow First’ (chosen after Labour registered their preferred name of ‘Glasgow Labour’) is standing in a number of wards including of a number of the deselected councillors. Whether or not they will be a success depends highly on the mood of the electorate. 

After under nominating in 2007, the SNP are fielding more candidates with the aim of becoming the largest party (talk of winning outright control has receded somewhat). The Greens who capitalised on transfers last time, winning 5 seats despite getting a smaller share of the vote than the Tories are targeting Lib Dem voters directly in literature. The Greens may fall back given that they won seats on the back of SNP underrepresentation. While Lib Dems are in serious trouble as there is no where in the city where they can win the most first preferences or get above quota prior to the second stage, given that they will survive on the back of transfers to them they may still win 2-3 seats. The Tories underperformed in 2007 (where they won 1 seat despite proportionally being entitled to around 6) and are privately hoping to simply return popular councillor David Meickle in Pollockshields, they also have a shot of winning a seat in Newlands/Auldburn

Prediction?

Had the locals been fought in 2011 during the SNP wave, they would probably have won control of the city knocking Labour out of power for the first time since 1980. Under the old FPTP system, it would have probably won outright.

How Glasgow First will fare is unknown; they may take scalps in every ward or fizzle without trace and it's very difficult to determine what will happen. In most of these seats, the opposing. Labour candidates are unknown so this may help Glasgow First get elected if name recognition means anything. On a good night, I could see them ending up with 3 or 4 councillors getting returned.

I expect Labour to loose overall control, however I have a feeling they will be close to level with the SNP on seats. The problem with STV in a city like Glasgow is that if you have the same two competitive parties in every ward, they will mop up most of the seats leaving the smaller parties the chance of winning only in the 4 seat wards. So you may find results like LAB LAB SNP, SNP SNP LAB and SNP, SNP, LAB, LAB being the order of the day particularly as Labour and SNP voters are interchangable. This could end up squeezing the smaller parties out of contention.

The Lib Dem collapse won’t help. Of course, if the Lib Dems get preferences way down the ballot they might still get candidates over the line. I have the feeling that Tory candidates with a good breathing space between them and the Lib Dems will still end up getting leapfrogged. I

Just to note that the last by-election was in Hillhead in November 2011. Hillhead is the most untypical of Glasgow wards and here the SNP were up 12%, Labour up 5%, the Tories up 2%, the Greens down 5% and the Lib Dems down 9%.

[afleitch]

How I'll be voting

Black (CON) 1
Thompson (SNP) 2
Mullen (SNP) 3
Watson (Lib Dem) 4

Not marked: 2 Labour candidates, Indepedent, Christian oddball.

[afleitch]

Quick summary

Labour 2011 - 'The SNP are only focused on independence, this election is about the Tory cuts'
SNP 2011 - 'This is an election to elect members of the Scottish Parliament'

Labour 2012 - 'The SNP are only focused on independence, this election is about the Tory/SNP cuts'
SNP 2012 - 'This is an election to elect councillors for your local area'

Thoughts on how that might work out for them?

[afleitch]

Quick update on Glasgow

Glasgow First do not appear to be making much of an impact. Their sitting councillors are however hoping that their incumbency will help them over the line. David Meickle, the lone Tory (who should be re-elected) has pretty much confirmed that he will be looking at an alliance with the SNP. The Greens have indicated the same thing. The Tories are concentrating on trying to get Meickle and two others over the line. The Greens are confident that they will hold on to most of the seats they are defending.

The big battle is between Labour and the SNP with Salmond visiting the city at the weekend (and shaking hands with a certain bemused forum Tory) While Labour seem dejected as if in the last days of Rome, the SNP are suprisingly cautious. There is still talk of them forming a majority administration which I would like to dismiss, but it comes from the same sources that whispered 'landslide' last year.

It should be assumed though, that as long as Labour don't hold a majority of seats then they are out of office for the first time since 1980. The smaller parties seem set on forming a coalition to keep Labour out which given the shenanigans of the last council and the threats made within, makes sense. The same is true of Glasgow First, should they return any councillors.

[afleitch]

A suprisingly bold statement from Labour's leader in Glasgow, Gordon Matheson who has publically annouced that he expects Labour to retain outright control.

[afleitch]

1. Conservative
2. SNP
3. SNP
4. Liberal Democrat

Not marked; 3 Labour candidates, 2 Independents and a Christian.

It's the first time I've ever voted for a Liberal Democrat.

[afleitch]

If the Tory gets in in Hamilton North and East this year I may have to find a corner to cry in.

[afleitch]

What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

I can't predict anything at this stage. 2011 was a surprise because not only did Labour underperform, but the Tories ended up making gains. This time round I have a feeling that the Lib Dems will not fall as hard as people would think. I think the Tories will have a rough night but I can take comfort that this far into Blair's premiership Labour lost nearly 600 councillors and won the GE by a landslide a year later.

Scotland is even more difficult to predict.

[afleitch]

Here comes round 2. Counting underway in Scotland

Don't forget a US style 'real time' count for London Mayor

http://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/results-and-past-elections/live-results-2012?contest=23

[afleitch]

They are staring to come in. Very early still and a mixed bag. For example; SNP knocked off two Labour councillors in Stirling, but Labour have taken a seat from the Lib Dems and the SNP in Fife.

[afleitch]

Labour will win Glasgow.

[afleitch]

Inverclyde almost in

So far

LAB 8 (+1)
SNP 4
CON 1
LIB 1 (-1)

[afleitch]

Stirling now complete

SNP 9 (+2)
LAB 8
CON 4
GRN 1 (+1)
LIB 0 (-3)

[afleitch]

Glasgow First get a councillor in Govan; rest split 2 to Labour and one to the SNP.

[afleitch]

My old Hamilton North and East ward is in. No change; 2 LAB, 1 SNP. Sadly Barry Douglas has been ousted as SNP councillor and replaced with Lynn Adams who likley won on the basis that her name came first on the ballot paper.

[afleitch]

Good news for Labour in Renfrewshire; they have taken overall control.

[afleitch]

Labour are doing well in Scotland (as are the SNP). I'll need to dissect the results as there is a regional variance in every parties support. In some parts the Lib Dems added seats for example. Though I wouldn't say it's been a brilliant election. It's been good for Labour certainly but in comparison to other midterms, is not spectacular. Both Foot and Hague made bigger gains two years in and look what happened to them! But having local representation is always good for parties, especially in the south where Labour had been wiped out.

[afleitch]

Edinburgh

LAB 20 (+5)
SNP 18 (+5)
CON 11
GRN 6 (+3)
LIB 3 (-13)

Bloodbath for the Lib Dems and I'm quite shocked the Tories ended up level. Very good result for the Greens of course. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in terms of a coalition. The Lib Dem in the Pentland Hills Ward was beaten by a man dressed as a penguin in first preferences. Also an 'interesting' number of ballot papers were spoiled by people writing 'TRAMS' all over them,

Dundee won by the SNP. Labour make stonking gains in Aberdeen and have first stab at forming a coalition. Glasgow still out, but Labour expected to hang on.

[afleitch]

Some fun facts from Edinburgh;

Largest Party by Ward (vote share)

SNP – Almond, Pentland Hills, Drum/Brae/Gyle, Leith, Craigentinny/Duddingston
LAB – Forth, Sighthill/Gorgie, Leith Walk, Liberton/Gilmerton, Portobello/Craigmillar
CON – Inverleith, Corstorphine/Murrayfield, Colinton/Fairmilehead, Meadows/Morningside. City Centre
GRN – Fountainbridge/Craiglockheart, Southside/Newington

Largest Green Party shares (over 10%)

Fountainbridge/Craiglockheart 24.1%
Leith Walk 20.3%
Southside/Newington 20.0%
Meadows/Morningside 19.8%
Leith 18.9%
Portobello/Craigmillar 18.5%
City Centre 17.1%
Inverleith 14.9%

And for fun; Labour and the SNP are going into power together.