How will Obama perform in Arizona in 2012 compared to 2008?

[Person Man]

He will be more or less competitive there if he wins reelection by an undisputable margin. If its close, it will probably be 47/52...I don't see how he can do worse.

I would say Arizona will have a PVI of R +2.5, meaning if he does as well as he did last year, he has a 50/50 chance of winning.

New Mexico will probably have a PVI of like D +8 (much like Oregon or New Jersey) and Nevada and Colorado will have a PVI of like D +2. This means that if the GOP wins as good as Obama did in 2008, they will have a 50/50 shot at both of them.

[Person Man]

R: 54%
D: 43%

If Obama loses.

R: 52%
D: 46%

if Obama wins slightly.

D: 49%
R: 48.9%

if Obama wins big. convincingly...i.e. does any better than W in 2004

If there's a landslide? Probably
Obama 51
GOP 48

I'll got with R+2, meaning that in a tied election, the Republican would get 52% of the two-party vote. Basically, NC, IN or FL. 

[Person Man]

So, he was still able to win in states where they sued him and his congress for their ideology....or is there a nuance I'm not getting?