SC PrimR: ARG: Romney slightly ahead of Gingrich, Paul strong but Santorum is crashing

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: South Carolina President by ARG on 2012-01-12

Summary:

Romney:	29%
Gingrich:	25%
Paul:	20%
Perry:	9%
Santorum:	7%
Other:	3%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

What's up with Santorum ?

He dropped 8 points in the new Rasmussen poll and now this ...

[RI]

This poll is a really big outlier...

[TheGlobalizer]

Paul:

20%

Holy sh**.

[Tender Branson]

Paul:

20%

Holy sh**.

ARG's South Carolina polls in 2008 were really sh*tty.

But let's wait for the PPP poll that's coming out later today and we'll see if Paul is surging or not.

[Mehmentum]

ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.

[Yelnoc]

ARG

[Keystone Phil]

ARG > Leno/Letterman/Stewart/Colbert...

[Mr. Morden]

ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.

Making up numbers and calling it a poll is harder than it looks.

[TheGlobalizer]

Paul:

20%

Holy sh**.

ARG's South Carolina polls in 2008 were really sh*tty.

But let's wait for the PPP poll that's coming out later today and we'll see if Paul is surging or not.

He's clearly surging based on other polls, but I certainly didn't expect to see a poll, even a bad one, with him at 20%.  Agree that PPP is much more dispositive, I'm guessing ~15% in that one.

[Eraserhead]

Paul winning South Carolina would be hilarious. How would the media even attempt to explain that one? But yeah, it's ARG, so...

[TheGlobalizer]

Paul winning South Carolina would be hilarious. How would the media even attempt to explain that one?

I would love to see them try.  Epic discomfort.

[Tender Branson]

ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.

Making up numbers and calling it a poll is harder than it looks.

Their 2 final polls (IA, NH) were not so bad though ...

[Mr. Morden]

ARG seems to be capturing the trend of the polling, but vastly overestimates it compared to the other recent polls.

Making up numbers and calling it a poll is harder than it looks.

Their 2 final polls (IA, NH) were not so bad though ...

Again, their early 2008 primary polling was really really terrible, but then they suddenly improved after Super Tuesday.  Which leads me to believe that they started cooking the books.  Either that, or they suddenly became competent pollsters.  Which is more likely?

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

[Lief 🗽]

Romney better not win another primary with another 30% against a split field...

[TheGlobalizer]

FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.

[Mehmentum]

FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.

So Santorum's voters are going to Paul???

[TheGlobalizer]

FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.

So Santorum's voters are going to Paul???

Clearly a shuffle going on, but it sounds like that's how it nets out.

[J. J.]

FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

I think the 'bots show that too.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

FWIW, PPP also finds Gingrich gaining and Santorum fading.

Actually...

@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
Big gainer since last week in our SC poll: Ron Paul. Big loser since last week: Rick Santorum. Little change for most others

Wonder if DeMint's favorable comments grew legs.  Also wonder if Krauthammer's op-ed will soften some of the establishment right's objectionism.

So Santorum's voters are going to Paul???

S'not hard to imagine.

A lot of people get the image of all Paul supporters being young libertarian sorts who like low taxes and pot while disliking wars. That was the case in 08 maybe, but he's attracted a lot of periphery demographics along the way (pro-gun people, anti-war liberals, etc) that are soft but prefer him to Romney.

In Iowa, that periphery almost won him the caucus, but then there was a nonstop media barrage of SANTORUM SURGING based on a flawed CNN poll, which led to a chunk of Paul's soft support going to Santorum because they were "anyone but Romney" voters.

In New Hampshire, it didn't work so well since Huntsman is a known liberal at best and most anti-Romney voters are more conservative and thus would prefer someone they at least think is conservative too (Santorum had this). Paul's base could be considered liberal, and has a lot of liberal elements, but is about as solid a base as you can get.

I honestly thought the best Paul could get in SC would be maybe fourth or third, but looking at this momentum I'd say its entirely possible he could actually win and create the Bizzaro World of elections (The moderate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, the libertarian wins South Carolina), seeing as how Gingrich is apparently the last non-Paul non-Romney candidate with strength left, and he's devoted himself to a scorched earth strategy against Romney.

[TheGlobalizer]

I honestly thought the best Paul could get in SC would be maybe fourth or third, but looking at this momentum I'd say its entirely possible he could actually win and create the Bizzaro World of elections (The moderate wins Iowa and New Hampshire, the libertarian wins South Carolina), seeing as how Gingrich is apparently the last non-Paul non-Romney candidate with strength left, and he's devoted himself to a scorched earth strategy against Romney.

What a f**king weird world it would be if Ron Paul breaks through in SOUTH CAROLINA.  Boggles the mind.

[TheGlobalizer]

Agree that PPP is much more dispositive, I'm guessing ~15% in that one.

Dead on:

South Carolina: Romney 29, Gingrich 24, Paul 15, Santorum 14, Perry 6, Huntsman 5, Roemer 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-leads-in-sc-paul-gaining.html