The Fight of 2020
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Cathcon
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« Reply #25 on: January 20, 2012, 08:09:28 AM »

Map-wise, I think it'd be fun to hand over more of the South-West to the Democrats while giving Republicans gains in the Mid-West.
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NHI
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« Reply #26 on: January 20, 2012, 10:36:05 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2012, 11:56:21 AM by NHI »

NEW MAP SHAKES GOP GOING INTO CONVENTION

Heading into their convention, The Republicans received news that was most unsettling. Some key battleground states that once favored Paul were now showing a shift towards Cuomo, particularly in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Missouri.

Missouri:
Paul: 46%
Cuomo: 46%

Virginia:
Cuomo: 47%
Paul: 45%

North Carolina:
Cuomo: 46%
Paul: 45%

Arizona:
Cuomo: 50%
Paul: 45%

Nevada:
Cuomo: 50%
Paul: 44%

Colorado:
Cuomo: 48%
Paul: 45%


On his show Morning Joe, Joe Scarborough described the change in polling. "I think Cuomo is being very careful not to run like Barack Obama. He's reaching out to those more moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats who helped elect and reelect Mitt Romney in 2012 and 2016. Now clearly Paul is the frontrunner, even if he won't admit it, and Cuomo is the underdog, but I'd watch out for Cuomo, because he's a popular governor from one of the largest states in the country and has governed not as a liberal far left guy, but more on centre-left."

Going into the convention Democrats painted Paul as a extremist and a radical Republican, while Republicans were hoping for a slam dunk out of the convention. One unnamed Republican said the week of the convention: "If this were Christie, or even Rubio on the top of the ticket, we'd be leading by double digits. The fact that we're only leading by two or three or trailing by two or three is not a good sign going into the fall."

In an interview at the convention Ron Paul decries attacks against his son, and calls Cuomo "The Great Pretender." When pressed on what he meant by the remark, Paul responded, "He's running around saying all this nonsense about liberty and freedom and personal responsibility and I'm like wow, who is this guy he must be a Republican at least, but he's not. He'll stoop to whatever level he has to in order to win and Rand will have to call him out on it."


Cuomo v. Paul: Day of Marco Rubio's Speech
Cuomo: 46%
Paul: 44%


Safe R: 158
Safe D: 166
Tossup: 133
Lean R: 51
Lean D: 30
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #27 on: January 21, 2012, 03:12:58 AM »

Uh-oh...I think I know what that means....
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NHI
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« Reply #28 on: January 21, 2012, 09:34:42 AM »

The Republican Convention started well and end greatly. Pres. Romney started the week off with a speech that touted the economic success of the past eight years and how under Pres. Paul America would continue to see prosperity and peace for years to come.

"Governor Cuomo is a nice guy, but his vision of America is what we left eight years. Do you we want to return that America? No, way, no how."

Other speeches included a key note by Sen. Paul Ryan, the Vice Presidential Acceptance speech by Rubio brought the house down.

"I believe in America where opportunity rises and hope still lives. I love this country. Sen. Paul loves this country and yes, Gov. Cuomo loves this country. Both men want to see this country succeed, the only difference is we're right and they're wrong."

On the final night of the convention Sen. Paul accepted the nomination and gave a speech filled with personal anecdotes, his vision of America, and throughout the speech he never mentioned Cuomo by name, only by saying the democrats. In his closing remarks Rand Paul spoke of his father Ron Paul and by the end there wasn't a dry eye in the house.

Tonight I am mostly here because of my father. My father is no stranger to American politics and to the cause of liberty. But my father is someone who has been my greatest advisor, my greatest champion and yes, my friend. Tonight I accept this nomination with great honor and pride, but I also accept with the belief that the cause he has championed throughout his life will finally be reached. America that day is now!"

Following the convention Paul rocketed to the head of the polls, taking a commanding lead of Cuomo for the first time. The battleground states started to tighten and the focus shifted towards the debates which many believed would be decisive in the end result of the election.

Paul vs. Cuomo
Paul: 51%
Cuomo: 45%



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196
Tossup: 114


Scarborough: Chris, you have to admit people like Rand Paul and it's not just those who supported Ron Paul. These are democrats, republicans and independent alike. I remember when Pres. Romney accepted the nomination in 2012 after narrowly defeating Gingrich, people were pissed, now we see how everything turned out, but now it seems like the Republican Party is united for the first time really since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Matthews: Jeez Joe, you can't be comparing Rand Paul to Ronald Reagan?

Scarborough: Chris, I know you don't like to admit it but he talks about conservatism in a way that Romney could not. He's not a moderate, he's one hundred percent conservative and if elected we will go to the right of Mitt Romney.

Matthews: And that's a good thing?

Scarborough: Look, I don't expect Roe v. Wade to be overturned, but we will see this country move further to the right on economic issues to say the least. Romney has been a good fiscal conservative and perhaps one of his smartest moves at least with some in the base was appointing Paul, Ron Paul chairman of the Federal Reserve. Now under a Pres. Paul, who knows the FED may be gone or severely diminished and on matters of foreign policy we'll see a shift more towards a libertarian view, though not in the same vein as his father but close.

Matthews: All I can say is God help us if this man wins.

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NHI
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« Reply #29 on: January 21, 2012, 09:54:52 AM »

As the month of September got underway Cuomo hoped to champion economic populism as a way to win the White House, while Sen. Paul touted the prosperity of the last eight years and what would happen in the future. However the Cuomo campaign received a shocking and unsettling blow. Vice Presidential nominee Annie Kuster called Cuomo late in the night and announced she would leaving the ticket, citing a recent health discovery that required immediate action.[

Cuomo accepted her departure and in a speech the following morning Kuster made her announcement public. Many speculated on the state of her health, but she offered no comment. With the Democrats without a Vice President, the Cuomo campaign immediately found a replacement, by choosing the person they originally sought for the role. Governor of Texas...Bill White.

Kuster bids farewell.

The incumbent Governor of Texas Bill White was seen a shock pick to some and a brilliant pick by others. For in some eyes it now meant the state of Texas was in play. Bill White, the former Mayor of Houston, originally ran for Governor against then incumbent Rick Perry. Following Perry's failed presidential campaign in 2012 he decided not to seek reelection in 2014, which allowed White to run for Governor again. In a close election he defeated former Mayor of Houston Tom Leppert. White then run reelection in 2018 and won easily, propelling him into the spotlight.


"I am honored and humbled to be the Vice Presidential nominee for the Democratic Party and I know this time we're going to flip Texas back to where it belongs."
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #30 on: January 21, 2012, 10:31:52 AM »

Greeeeat
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Pingvin
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« Reply #31 on: January 21, 2012, 10:32:29 AM »

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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #32 on: January 21, 2012, 07:36:34 PM »

We want Paul!  Wink
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NHI
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« Reply #33 on: January 22, 2012, 12:49:05 PM »

In the first of three presidential debates Paul and Cuomo largely stuck to their talking points and neither campaign made any serious gaffe or misstep. However, during the latter half of the debate Paul spoke on the topic of the Federal Reserve and challenge Cuomo to respond.

Paul in the first Presidential Debate

" I love how you advocate Governor," Paul quipped. "That you're a proponent of free markets and capitalism, but yet won't even suggest an audit of the Federal reserve. I believe in the free markets and allowing the market to regulate itself, not having some shadowy puppet figure pull the strings. It should be the Congress' role in regulating money, not the Federal Reserve Bank, and Governor if you can't agree with me on this then your credibility on free markets and capitalism itself is downright laughable."

Following the debate Paul's lead over Cuomo continued to grow, causing dismay in the Cuomo campaign. Despite the tapping of Texas Governor Bill White the campaign seemed to be stalled as Paul blew past them in many of the battleground states.

On CNN's the Situation Room with John King, King explained the scenario for the Cuomo campaign going forward.
"Cuomo is doing not poorly, but certainly not great in the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida. All four states were won by President Romney four years ago. Now to add insult to injury Minnesota the long stable democratic state is toss up at this point. This is a state where Cuomo didn't think he'd had to contest, now he has to spend the time and resources in a state that he should win easily."

Gloria Borger interjected, "John looking at the map now what is a feasible win for Andrew Cuomo?"

"If Paul carries all the states Romney won in 2016, plus Montana he wins a commanding victory of 318 to 220. Now the Cuomo campaign believes Michigan will flip back to the Democrats, so let's give them that. Paul still wins 302 to 236. Better but still not at the magic number. For Cuomo the important states lie in the south west, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Colorado and New Mexico have gone Democrat since 2008, Cuomo needs to keep those, flip Nevada and Arizona into the Democratic column and he gets closer, 282 for Paul, 253 for Cuomo. Then he needs to look to flip either Ohio or Pennsylvania. He wins Ohio, he reaches 271, one over the minimum needed. So it is a long race and the odds are favoring Senator Paul, but if he can make a play for the states in the southwest while holding the ones won by Schweitzer in 2016 he should do fine."

Paul v. Cuomo:
Paul: 51%
Cuomo: 45%

Key States:

Texas:
Paul: 54%
Cuomo: 44%

Minnesota:
Paul: 47%
Cuomo: 45%

Colorado:
Paul: 46%
Cuomo: 44%

Arizona:
Cuomo: 46%
Paul: 45%

New Mexico:
Paul: 47%
Cuomo: 47%

New Hampshire:
Paul: 53%
Cuomo: 44%

Ohio:
Paul: 49%
Cuomo: 45%

The campaign began it's final stretch with the Vice Presidential Debates and the last of the Presidential ones. In the Vice Presidential Debate Rubio was seen as the winner by a landslide, while in the second Presidential Debate it was seen as Cuomo came ahead of Paul, but by the final Paul seemed to regain his momentum and by many accounts won the final debate. The only question remained if Paul's momentum would hold and carry him to the election, or if Cuomo could pull the big upset...

Paul visits New Hampshire on his forty-seventh visit, compared to Cuomo's twelve.

Final Poll: October 31st - November 2nd
Paul: 50%
Cuomo: 46%


"All we have to do is count the ballots and see." -- Sen. Rand Paul 11/2/20 in St. Paul, Minnesota

"I believe tomorrow we'll pull a surprise not just on the pundits and pollsters, but on the Republicans. Your time is up." -- Gov. Andrew Cuomo 11/2/20 in Arizona City, Arizona
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Vern
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« Reply #34 on: January 22, 2012, 02:46:41 PM »

North Carolina will be lean Dem by 2020... everyone knows this..
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #35 on: January 22, 2012, 03:57:09 PM »

Awesome!
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sentinel
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« Reply #36 on: January 22, 2012, 06:52:09 PM »

I'm not sure how much traction Paul's view would get in the general election --regardless you have me hooked.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #37 on: January 22, 2012, 11:55:52 PM »

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NHI
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« Reply #38 on: January 23, 2012, 07:06:27 AM »


Good Evening America and welcome to MSNBC's coverage of Election Night 2020. Joining me are Chris Matthews, Chris Hayes, Lawrence O'Donnell and Steve Schmidt. Reports we've been receiving all day project record turnouts, not seen really since 2008, so the question is who does this benefit?

Matthews: It has to benefit Cuomo, many voters were undecided going in and broke for him today.

Maddow: The first round of exit polling show that young voters those 18 to 29 are breaking heavily for Paul. So he is doing well among those groups that either voter for Obama in 2008 and then were turned or returned in lower numbers...and we can make our first series of projection for the Presidency.

In the state of Vermont we project that Governor Cuomo has won over Sen Paul. A traditional democratic state, at this time we project Governor Cuomo will take roughly fifty-eight percent of the vote.


58% - 40%

In the state of Kentucky and South Carolina we project that Sen. Paul has won. Two reliably safe Republican states, with the former being the home state of the senator.

62% - 36%

57% - 41%

The polls are closed in three other states and we believe then we will be able to project Georgia and Indiana for Mr. Paul, while Virginia remains too close to call...

17
3


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NHI
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« Reply #39 on: January 23, 2012, 06:45:44 PM »

82
75

Maddow: ...As the polls close we are unable to project winners for the following six states: Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire. While Florida is expected to go for Senator Paul tonight as is New Hampshire, the fact that Missouri is too close to call as well as North Carolina bodes well for Governor Cuomo.

Schmidt: Cuomo is tapping into some more moderate voters who might be turned off by Paul and that is why we're seeing such a close race in Missouri and North Carolina.

Matthews: In 2008 Barack Obama narrowly won North Carolina, Romney narrowly took it back in 2012 and the same in 2016. This state is trending Democrat, as it Missouri. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both of the states go for Paul tonight.

Missouri:
Paul: 49.3%
Cuomo: 49.0%

North Carolina:
Cuomo: 49.2%
Paul: 49.1%

Maddow: And at this time MSNBC is now calling the state of New Hampshire for Senator Paul. He wins it with almost fifty-three percent...

52.9% - 45.3%

9:16
Maddow: Still many states outstanding nearly thirty minutes after nine on this election night. This is a very fluid race and right before we went to break we projected that Governor Cuomo won North Carolina. A complete upset, no one saw this coming and clearly shows that Cuomo is not finished yet.

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114

O'Donnell: What truly stuns me is that Texas has not yet been called, at almost nine thirty. Now I expect Paul to carry it, but the fact that it is undecided tells me that many of the undecided voters are breaking for Cuomo.

Maddow: And to add more claim to that theory MSNBC is now projecting that Governor Cuomo has won the state of Missouri.

50.1% - 49.0%

Matthews: Wow, this night just got a lot more interesting...
10:25

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114

Matthews: ...A strong economy, peace, low unemployment and Cuomo is doing this well. I just find it incredible tonight.

Maddow: And at this time MSNBC is projecting that Senator Paul has won the state of Virginia, as well as the state of Iowa.

50.9% - 48.1%

51.0% - 46.9%

Maddow: Turning now to Chris Hayes, do things look like their starting to fall into place for the Paul campaign?


Hayes: Yes and no. I think it a lot will depend on which way Ohio goes. It appears that Cuomo's southwestern strategy, picking up Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona, with the last one being the most important. Then we see him winning North Carolina which has trended Democrat in recent years and now Missouri this shows the unsteadiness of this race. However what I'm most interested in is Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The fact that these states are undecided at almost eleven o'clock must be giving the Cuomo campaign reason to worry.

Maddow: And worry they must, MSNBC is now projecting that Michigan has gone for Senator Paul.

50.5% - 48.4%

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178

Minnesota:
Paul: 49.11%
Cuomo: 48.87%

Wisconsin:
Paul: 48.88%
Cuomo: 48.65%

Ohio:
Paul: 49.50%
Cuomo: 49.37%

Nevada:
Cuomo: 50.00%
Paul: 49.30%

Popular Vote: (10:43 PM)
Paul: 49.9%
Cuomo: 48.0%
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NHI
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« Reply #40 on: January 23, 2012, 06:57:51 PM »

BREAKING NEWS

Maddow: MSNBC is making a retraction from an early call made this evening. It now appears that the results in Missouri are shifting from Governor Cuomo back to undecided. We are retracting the win for Governor Cuomo is Missouri. Please stay with MSNBC after this break as we head towards the eleve o'clock closings on the west coast

Missouri:
Cuomo: 49.64%
Paul: 49.49%

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NHI
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« Reply #41 on: January 24, 2012, 05:24:10 PM »

11:10
Maddow: With Ohio now going for Sen. Paul the mood is reportedly subdued at Cuomo's Headquarters. With Minnesota leaning towards Paul as is Wisconsin is this over Chris?

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Matthews: It's difficult, not impossible but difficult given the states remaining.

Schmidt: It's over, and I'm not talking as a partisan here, I'm just looking at the facts. Wisconsin will go to Paul and so will Minnesota. The numbers are not improving for Cuomo, especially when you have Paul beating Cuomo is areas won easily by Obama and Schweitzer in 2012 and 2016 respectively.

Maddow: Steve you must have clairvoyant powers, because MSNBC is now calling the state of Wisconsin and it's ten electoral votes for Senator Paul.

49.9% - 48.7%

Maddow: With Wisconsin in the Paul column he is just shy seven electoral votes needed to become President of the United States...



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Popular Vote: 11:20
Paul: 50.2%
Cuomo: 47.8%
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sentinel
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« Reply #42 on: January 24, 2012, 05:40:54 PM »

Intense, I'm rooting for Cuomo. Maybe a switched version of 2000?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #43 on: January 24, 2012, 05:47:59 PM »

Stop the monster!
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NHI
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« Reply #44 on: January 24, 2012, 08:36:33 PM »

Maddow: We are still looking at the four states which remain undecided. It is moving towards the witching hour here on the east coast and here are the results thus far for the contested states.

Oregon:
Cuomo: 50.1%
Paul: 48.9%

Maddow: And it appears that we can project Oregon for Governor Cuomo. Looking at Missouri which we called for Governor Cuomo earlier but later retracted.

Missouri:
Cuomo: 49.58%
Paul: 49.52%

Maddow: With ninety-ninety percent of the vote counted we are being told that Senator Paul will contest the votes in the state and a recount will be order beginning tomorrow. Looking now to Nevada. We thought we might be able to project it for Governor Cuomo, but we had to move it back into the undecided column.

Nevada:
Cuomo: 49.67%
Paul: 49.50%

Maddow: Of course the state we've been watching all night is Minnesota, the vote is extremely close and with ninety-nine percent in and counted Senator Paul leads Governor Cuomo by about fifty-five votes.

Minnesota:
Paul: 49.56%
Cuomo: 49.54%

Maddow: Obviously that state as well will be headed towards a recount and with the time now being a little past twelve we have yet to project a winner for President.

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Popular Vote: 12:11
Paul: 50.0%
Cuomo: 48.1%

1:12

Maddow: ...MSNBC is now calling the state of Nevada for Governor Cuomo. Governor Cuomo will carry Nevada, bringing his total to 252 electoral votes to Senator Paul's 266. This election will now be decided by two states Minnesota and Missouri, and both will be begin the recount process later this morning.

Missouri:
Cuomo: 49.57%
Paul: 49.53%

Minnesota:
Paul: 49.56%
Cuomo: 49.54%

Maddow: It is now one thirty here on the east coast and MSNBC is ready to make a projection for the Presidency...









The Decision...For The Moment!

Paul Wins, Narrowly. Recounts to follow.
Paul greets supporters at 2:20 AM, after reaching 276 electoral votes.

With Minnesota and Missouri going respectively for Paul and Cuomo, the recount process in the two states got underway. While Paul had crossed the finish line, it was a weak finish and the Cuomo campaign believed that with the recount in Minnesota there would be enough votes to shift and put them over the top.

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262

Popular Vote: 8:21 AM
Paul: 49.7%
Cuomo: 48.5%

Maddow: The recounts are underway this morning, after a wild election night ride Senator Rand Paul is projected to be the 46th President of the United States of America, but will the recounts hand the election to Cuomo. While Paul leads by a significant margin in the popular vote, only fourteen electoral votes separate the two men.

In Minnesota where Rand Paul won by fifty-five votes, some data we are receiving it showing that those numbers are even closer. The latest report has Senator Paul up by only thirty votes...

In Missouri where Governor Cuomo beat Senator Paul by point a fourth of a point, the new data from the recount shows an even closer than expected race. So even with Senator Paul being put over the top this election is far from over, as the recounts will decide whether Paul remains President-elect and will be the next President of the United States, or if Governor Cuomo will be the next man to occupy the Oval Office. A fascinating night and fascinating election. We now go live to the White House where President Romney is commenting on the results.


"What a night. (Chuckles) This is a nail biter for sure and while I have spoken with Senator Paul and Governor Cuomo and congratulated Senator Paul on what I believe is a victory, I don't know as you do who won. The recounts are going on as we speak, so we will just wait, but gosh this is how democracy works and surely after last night it is quite clear that every vote counts. So we will wait for the final word, but my team and I will be making the preparations for the transition, regardless if Senator Paul or Governor Cuomo assumes this office come January. For the Presidency does not belong to one person or one party, it belongs to the American people and we will carry through this sacred tradition and process in light of the uncertainty with the election.

Mr. President, has Senator Paul been briefed on National Security?

Senator Paul, technically is President-elect, so we will go through this process, thought it will not be a full on transition as there is some doubt about whether my successor will be Senator Paul or Governor Cuomo. Now hopefully by the end of today this will all be sorted out and we can get back to business."



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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #45 on: January 25, 2012, 07:26:38 PM »

Awesome!  How was 2020 for the congressional GOP?
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NHI
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« Reply #46 on: January 25, 2012, 08:04:03 PM »

Congressional Results:
The GOP won control in 2010, in part with the help of Tea Party which at the time was viewed as a force to be reckon with. By the 2012 elections, with the nomination of Mitt Romney whatever power the movement held, was finally diminished. In 2012, following the defeat of Obama, the GOP swept control of Senate, creating a trifecta with both the House and White House. The GOP made more picks up in 2014 and 2016 and held onto their majorities through 2018. John Boehner remained Speaker of the House until 2019, following his departure Rep. Kevin McCarthy succeeded him beating out once thought likely Speaker Eric Cantor.

The 2020 election favored the Republicans, but in the surprising turn of events the Democrats made major inroads in the House and Senate. The GOP narrowly retained control of the House, but the Democrats practically made the Senate an equally divided house, with an independent member being the culprit.



In regards to the Presidential elections, the results of the recount continued to pour in throughout the day. Originally it was believed Paul won by fifty-five votes, but by mid morning it was down to thirty votes and by the evening he led by only seventeen votes...
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NHI
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« Reply #47 on: January 25, 2012, 08:38:07 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2012, 08:42:18 PM by NHI »

7:59 PM


At 7:59, the Minnesota State Canvassing Board officially certified the winner of the Election Results in Minnesota, and thus the Presidency...

Cuomo makes his way to the podium...

Father and Son have a brief discussion before going to make an address...

The winner of Minnesota, by the razor thin margin of eight votes, the next Presient of the United States is...


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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #48 on: January 25, 2012, 11:21:56 PM »

Paul!!!
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Simfan34
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« Reply #49 on: January 25, 2012, 11:26:18 PM »

Go Cuomo!
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