Challenge for map makers: white liberal districts

[nclib]

I would be interested in seeing how to maximize the white liberal vote in a district (or at least the white + Obama number) in each state without being an extreme gerrymander.

Some states this is obvious: CA-San Fran, IL-Chicago North shore, MN-Minneapolis, UT-Salt Lake City, VA- VA-8, WA-Seattle.

But what would it be like in states such as Mich., Pa., N.J., Conn., etc.?

[bgwah]

The new WA-07 is 72.5% white and 80.4% Obama.

[Miles]

Both of these Maryland districts are 69% Obama. Blue is 55% White VAP and pink is 57%. Pretty clean by Maryland standards.



Louisiana was pretty hard, given the racial polarization. This district is 52% White VAP, 57% Obama and 61% D average. Not really good for communities of interest, but not super-ugly.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CA-06 kicks that district's ass.

[RI]

Could be finessed a bit perhaps, but this is probably about the most White Obama district in Michigan you could have.
74.7% White VAP, 68.2% Obama.

[RI]

Three such districts for Pennsylvania. They are a bit uglier:


84% White, 62% Obama


87% White, 59% Obama


82% White, 64% Obama

[bgwah]

Louisiana was pretty hard, given the racial polarization. This district is 52% White VAP, 57% Obama and 61% D average. Not really good for communities of interest, but not super-ugly.

It kinda looks like Italy!

[Miles]

The new NC-04 was the inspiration for this. 88% White VAP, 67% Obama

[bgwah]

I tinkered with WA-07 a bit, 76.5% white VAP and 81.6% Obama.

[RI]

North Carolina: (70% White, 63% Obama)



Georgia (60% White, 60% Obama):



Missouri (75% White, 65% Obama):

[muon2]

If the gerrymander in IL works as intended then there could as many as 6 such districts in the Chicago area: 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, and 11.

[Torie]

Haha. The list of such CD's in CA would be rather long. Does "white" mean 50% VAP white or higher?

[traininthedistance]

This has to be just about the whitest, liberal-est district possible in the country, assuming you're trying to maximize both axes.



78.1 White (78.5 VAP), 81.6 Obama.

Actually, wait a minute never mind.  The winner is clearly VT-AL.  About 14 points less Dem, but 20 points more white.

[traininthedistance]

Here's my crack at New Jersey:



64.1 White, (67.1 VAP); 67.3 Obama.  Centered around suburban Camden and Mercer, with a connecting strip along the river in Burlington.  Avoids Camden and Willingboro to keep the white percentage up, but takes in part of Trenton, it's unavoidable if you want to grab Ewing and Princeton, and this district definitely wants Princeton.  You could probably boost it a couple points if you split more towns (there's a bunch of territory all over South Jersey which could credibly go in this district); I did a handful but tried to avoid going completely overboard.

I tried to make something in the north, stringing together Hoboken and Montclair and the like, but that part of the state is just so much more diverse.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The new NC-04 was the inspiration for this. 88% White VAP, 67% Obama

As best as I can tell the borders from DRA, the actual post-redistricting WI-02, which is quite compact, has (Obama+white VAP) around 157, which is a bit higher than this.

[bgwah]

Obama + white VAP isn't a very good measure. Super-white areas will always win.

[krazen1211]

No point in doing Texas I suppose.

[nclib]

Haha. The list of such CD's in CA would be rather long. Does "white" mean 50% VAP white or higher?

I was mainly thinking of districts that maximize the white liberal % of the total population, or for simplification, white % + Obama % since that is easier to measure. In Calif., this can be done in several areas simultaneously, say one in the Bay Area, one in LA county, one in other Northern California, one in other Southern California.

For the new Calif. CD's, the five "best" are:

              Obama   white VAP%   White VAP % + Obama %

CA-02   Woolsey                 71   76.26   147.26
CA-33   Waxman/Hahn      64   70.26   134.26
CA-18   Eshoo                  70   61.05   131.05
CA-12   Pelosi                  84   46.31   130.31
CA-28   Schiff/Becerra      70   57.89   127.89

Surprised San Fran isn't first, but these criteria penalizes areas with high non-white populations, even though the percent of whites in SF how are liberal are as liberal as whites anywhere.

Edited to give white VAP % instead of white overall.

[RI]

No point in doing Texas I suppose.

Not true. I just drew a 64.6% White VAP district in Austin that voted 64.2% Obama.

[traininthedistance]

Obama + white VAP isn't a very good measure. Super-white areas will always win.

As I mentioned, Vermont's at-large seat would be not just the most "white liberal" district that actually exists, but the most "white liberal" district that could exist.

I think the best measure would be to multiply the two numbers.  Vermont may still win anyway; perhaps something in Western Massachusetts or my "rich parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn" district would have a chance?  (Alas, Obama % is not in DRA's Mass map.)

[traininthedistance]

Spent some time trying out Florida, in the obvious place for such a district (stradding Broward and Palm Beach).  What I came up with isn't as well-packed as the current FL-19 (Ted Deutch) is already, at 77.5% white and 65% Obama.  I imagine it's going to be hard to beat that.

[Miles]

87% White VAP, 65% Obama.

[Brittain33]

I'm trying to imagine a Provincetown-to-Williamstown district in Massachusetts that doesn't use water connectivity and also leaves population equal to whole districts on either side.

[traininthedistance]

Here's Arizona:



57.8 White (but 62.8 VAP and probably higher CVAP still), yet only 58.1 Obama.  Could probably boost it a little bit if I was willing to get much more ugly in the Phoenix area; but Tucson-to-Tempe is clearly the right overall shape for this district.  Flagstaff is just too far away.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama + white VAP isn't a very good measure. Super-white areas will always win.

Yeah I think the biggest issue here is that liberal white areas almost always have minorities scattered in with them. So while Vermont may be the winner there are tons of places where Obama got over 67% of the white vote, but the standard is cut down because of minorities present. This is especially the case when the minorities include many non-voting Hispanics and Asians. I mean how much of the white vote does Obama get in a district that is say 65% white, 10% black, 15% Hispanic and 10% Asian and gave him 85% of the vote?