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ndcohn
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« on: January 19, 2012, 11:45:35 AM »
« edited: January 19, 2012, 03:13:52 PM by ndcohn »

I've been lurking here for years and I recently decided to start blogging about elections. I can't really think of any group that would enjoy the demographic/map focus more than the folks posting here, so in case anyone is interested, I thought I'd throw it out:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/

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Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2012, 12:04:13 PM »

Great stuff!

I'd be more than willing to link to it if you were willing to replicate the favour for my blog.
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ndcohn
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« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2012, 03:14:06 PM »

what's your blog?
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ndcohn
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« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2012, 03:17:41 PM »

These posts might particularly interest the demographic and map minded:

On the income-facet of Romney's coalition, and consequences for South Carolina:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/12/romneys-south-carolina-income-problem/

On southern Iowa's love of southern candidates:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/17/why-isnt-santorum-doing-better-in-south-carolina/

On Romney's advantage in the next nine states:
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/17/schedule-favors-romney-sc-more-important-than-usual/

On whether caucuses will support Romney big time in 2012
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/16/will-caucuses-support-romney-again/

On whether the 08' McCain vote will be good for Romney
http://electionate.wordpress.com/2012/01/13/what-does-2008-tell-us-about-2012/
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Hashemite
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2012, 05:05:41 PM »


http://welections.wordpress.com/
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ndcohn
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« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2012, 06:54:58 PM »

great blog! amazing how long you've stuck with it. I added you to my blogroll
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2012, 07:25:26 PM »


I disagree with pretty much all of that. All of Romney's advantages that allowed him to win caucuses last year no longer exist: he's not longer the conservative candidate (in fact, he's probably more hated by the right than McCain was, especially with the rise of the Tea Party), he longer has strong grassroots support (Tea Party + Paulites don't like him), and he is not the only candidate organized in caucus states (in fact it seems like he's ignoring them; only Paul seems to be playing there). I think Gingrich and especially Paul will split most of the caucus states.

Also, the Missouri primary doesn't award any delegates, so I doubt anyone will be paying much attention to it.
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ndcohn
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« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2012, 07:36:47 PM »
« Edited: January 19, 2012, 07:39:27 PM by ndcohn »

The post agrees Romney would do worse in caucuses than he did last time, though I disagree that "all of his advantages" are gone, since he was a mainline, establishment conservative and he still appears to have the support of that same group of voters. Depending on whether the caucuses are mainly Tea Party activists or longtime establishment GOP party members, Romney's advantage may either be reduced or eliminated. I don't know the answer, and that's why the post has a speculative tone.

If the every state held a caucus, I'd be more receptive to the argument that Romney won't win most of them, but most of these caucuses are in states that ought to be pretty strong for Romney, given Romney's higher levels of support in the west and in affluent metropolitan areas.

Finally, I didn't even consider Paul, mainly because it's too hard to judge how well he'll do, but also because even if he were the winner, I don't think it would matter. A Paul victory is (on balance) a Romney victory, and thus largely supports the direction of the post.
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