US House Redistricting: New Hampshire

[minionofmidas]

I guess it would have been possible (irrespective of partisan control of the state lege) if the seats had split in 2010. As is, non-starter.

[minionofmidas]

That pretty much leaves only Kansas, where the House leadership will not hear about putting the map the Senate already approved up for a vote, and doesn't have the votes to approve any other map either. (Though I guess some compromise will eventually emerge... or maybe not. If the thing ends up in court, it's hard to see an outcome much different from the Senate map.) Oh, and the House won't even pass the Senate's map for Senate redistricting.

[minionofmidas]

Bass' district as is is basically winnable for most Democratic politicians in the state and Charlie Bass. Of course he would have liked some help - Guinta's is far more Republican, but not so Republican as to be not a tossup seat.

Funniest part about Kansas is that the State House leadership had no qualms about passing a quite fair and reasonable State House map with bipartisan support. Their policy objective here is to capture a majority of the Senate Republican Caucus, and they don't much care how it's done.

[minionofmidas]

Well, the baseline in 2010 was 3.5% Pub, so if you subtract the 2.9% Dem PVI, that leaves a margin of about 0.6%, which times two, is a 1.2% margin, which is about where Bass was at, with no incumbency advantage manifested for the Dem incumbent (maybe erased because Bass was a former incumbent perhaps, but who knows?).

Because the Dem incumbent was running for Senate.