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bore
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« Reply #375 on: September 24, 2012, 01:46:15 PM »

Labour seriously need to sort out their strategy.

Anyway, there's been a fair bit of polling over the weekend:

Survation CON 29% (-1), LAB 41% (+1), LDEM 10% (n/c), UKIP 12%.
YouGov     CON 34% (-1), LAB 43% (+2), LDEM 8% (-1), UKIP 8%.
Opinium     CON 30% (-2), LAB 42% (+2), LDEM 8% (-2), UKIP 10%.
ComRes     CON 35% (+2), LAB 39% (-3), LDEM 10% (n/c), UKIP 8%.

The YouGov also had some hypotheticals:

Under Cameron, Miliband, Clegg
LAB 41%, CON 34%, LDEM 9%, OTH 16%

Under Cameron, Miliband, Cable
LAB 39%, CON 34%, LDEM 12%, OTH 16%

Under Johnson, Miliband, Clegg
CON 38%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, OTH 15%

Under Johnson, Miliband, Cable
CON 39%, LAB 35%, LDEM 11%, OTH 15%

It really seems that the whole lib dem party have been tarnished by the coalition, not just the lib dems under Clegg. Their grand plan of replacing Clegg before the election probably won't work out so well for them then. Shame.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #376 on: September 24, 2012, 02:28:03 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2012, 02:34:19 PM by Leftbehind »

It's unsurprising really given how loyal they've all been to Clegg, although ICM seem to disagree - as ever - with YouGov's (and Opinium's) findings.

Topline figures are:
ICM: LAB 41% (+2), CON 31% (-3), LDEM 14% (-1), OTH 14% (+2)

With the Cable hypothetical producing:
LAB 38% (-3%) CON 30% (-1), LDEM 19% (+5), OTH 13% (-1)

Worth noting that the last time ICM shown a 10-point Labour lead was in 2003.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #377 on: September 24, 2012, 02:43:29 PM »

It's unsurprising really given how loyal they've all been to Clegg, although ICM seem to disagree - as ever - with YouGov's (and Opinium's) findings.

Topline figures are:
ICM: LAB 41% (+2), CON 31% (-3), LDEM 14% (-1), OTH 14% (+2)

With the Cable hypothetical producing:
LAB 38% (-3%) CON 30% (-1), LDEM 19% (+5), OTH 13% (-1)

Worth noting that the last time ICM shown a 10-point Labour lead was in 2003.

ICM have consistently shown dodgy LD numbers anyway. And new leaders always seem like a good idea, but it never works out as well as the party originally thought.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #378 on: September 24, 2012, 03:10:04 PM »

ICM play with their figures before publishing them.
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YL
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« Reply #379 on: September 24, 2012, 03:59:38 PM »

And new leaders always seem like a good idea, but it never works out as well as the party originally thought.

I think the Tories dumping Th*tch*r in 1990 might be an exception there.  And, oddly enough, the Lib Dems replacing Ming Campbell with you-know-who might be too; they were in a pretty bad way.

However, these hypothetical leader polls are dodgy, and have a poor reputation.  Someone asked how they'd vote if the leaders were Cameron, Miliband and Cable is effectively being prompted to think of the Lib Dems.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #380 on: September 24, 2012, 04:01:37 PM »

ICM play with their figures before publishing them.

On a dartboard?
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #381 on: September 24, 2012, 04:09:05 PM »

It'll certainly be interesting to see the ICM figures without the turnout & don't-know-reallocation adjustments!

Although I tend to believe YouGov, Opinium etc with the Cable effect. Clegg is so toxic (in a way that few other past examples can compare to) that any change is likely to get them a couple of points, but not lead them to any meaningful recovery like shown in ICM (as he and his party are still significantly contaminated).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #382 on: September 24, 2012, 04:12:11 PM »

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9564006/In-full-Police-log-detailing-Andrew-Mitchells-pleb-rant.html

Hilarious
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« Reply #383 on: September 24, 2012, 04:13:44 PM »

I'm not sure if it was ICM or ComRes, but there was a poll released during the 2010 campaign showing the SNP on 0%....in Scotland.
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« Reply #384 on: September 26, 2012, 06:55:21 AM »

Clegg is so toxic (in a way that few other past examples can compare to)

They're be books and all kinds done on it once he's gone. He gets actual aggressive hate from people rather than just high annoyance that the likes of Brown and Major got.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #385 on: September 26, 2012, 01:00:18 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2012, 01:02:28 PM by Leftbehind »

Quote
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Quote from Clegg in an interview to regional news.

A listen to What the World Is Waiting For is in order.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #386 on: September 26, 2012, 01:08:51 PM »

Amazing.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #387 on: September 26, 2012, 01:26:36 PM »

It'll certainly be interesting to see the ICM figures without the turnout & don't-know-reallocation adjustments!

Before adjustments
LAB 44%, CON 30%, LDEM 11%, OTH 14%

After turnout:
LAB 44%, CON 31%, LDEM 11%, OTH 14%

After D/K allocation:
LAB 41%, CON 31%, LDEM 14%, OTH 13%
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YL
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« Reply #388 on: September 26, 2012, 01:50:12 PM »

Jeremy Browne, perhaps the Lib Dems' most right-wing MP, also insulted lots of people who used to vote Lib Dem and told them to vote Labour.

At the same time, the Lib Dems seem to be desparate to say that people shouldn't vote Labour because the party contains Ed Balls; the other Ed hardly gets a mention.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #389 on: September 26, 2012, 04:21:13 PM »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/26/lib-dems-speech-digested-crace
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #390 on: September 26, 2012, 06:13:53 PM »

 Cheesy Grin
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #391 on: September 29, 2012, 02:53:35 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2012, 06:49:51 AM by Comrade Sibboleth »

It's just been announced that Malcolm Wicks, Labour MP for Croydon North since 1997 (and Croydon North West 1992-1997), has died aged 65. He was a Social Policy academic before he was a politician and was a minister in the Blair and Brown governments.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #392 on: September 29, 2012, 02:58:43 PM »

Labour safe seat I assume?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #393 on: September 29, 2012, 03:05:11 PM »

It's just been announced that Malcolm Wicks, Labour MP for Croydon North since 1997, has died aged 65. He was a Social Policy academic before he was a politician and was a minister in the Blair and Brown governments.

RIP.


Taste, taste, taste.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #394 on: September 29, 2012, 05:25:15 PM »

Rest in Peace.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #395 on: September 30, 2012, 08:45:02 AM »

Wick's obit: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/sep/30/malcolm-wicks

As you can see, he's quite a loss.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #396 on: September 30, 2012, 08:46:56 AM »

On a lighter note now...

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Full article
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #397 on: September 30, 2012, 11:26:11 AM »

Interesting. More than one politician has used their middle name for politics - Leonard James Callaghan for example.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #398 on: September 30, 2012, 01:55:53 PM »

Interesting. More than one politician has used their middle name for politics - Leonard James Callaghan for example.

I think Prime Minister James Brown's got the best one.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #399 on: September 30, 2012, 02:37:15 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2012, 02:41:29 PM by Bain Capital »

And so it begins again:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/09/29/david-miliband-told-aides-ed-would-crash-and-burn-as-labour-leader_n_1925819.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

The insecurity of all three leaders in this parliament is surely unprecedented. Someone has to fall first.


And gross:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/09/22/liberal-democrats-for-romney_n_1906326.html?utm_hp_ref=uk-politics
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