UK General Discussion

[minionofmidas]

Of course it has a future. It's just (probably) not going to win the next election.

[countydurhamboy]

I spent over an hour on a post expanding on why I thought the tories were in trouble and I lost it  These were the key points.

1. Their failure to get a majority in 2010 in ideal circumstances.

2. They seem to have a very low potential vote. A large number of voters in the North, Scotland , Wales and in urban areas will never vote for them. They have a very toxic brand.

3. Increase in the ethnic majority population, while many tory pensioners have retired abroad.

4. Policies like the increase in tuition fees and reducing public sector pensions may well suppress the tory vote amongst those people for a long time.

5 The split in the right due UKIP. The creation of the coalition will mean the left is the most united for years.

6 The collapse in Tory membership (down to close to 100,000) and the seeming death wish of their backbench MP's.

This could change, they say "a week is a long time in politics" I'm talking about an eternity.   The Tories badly need to get new voters from somewhere.


Im not being a hack or a troll, I honestly think they are in real trouble.

[You kip if you want to...]

I spent over an hour on a post expanding on why I thought the tories were in trouble and I lost it  These were the key points.

1. Their failure to get a majority in 2010 in ideal circumstances.

2. They seem to have a very low potential vote. A large number of voters in the North, Scotland , Wales and in urban areas will never vote for them. They have a very toxic brand.

3. Increase in the ethnic majority population, while many tory pensioners have retired abroad.

4. Policies like the increase in tuition fees and reducing public sector pensions may well suppress the tory vote amongst those people for a long time.

5 The split in the right due UKIP. The creation of the coalition will mean the left is the most united for years.

6 The collapse in Tory membership (down to close to 100,000) and the seeming death wish of their backbench MP's.

This could change, they say "a week is a long time in politics" I'm talking about an eternity.   The Tories badly need to get new voters from somewhere.


Im not being a hack or a troll, I honestly think they are in real trouble.

Labour's the natural party of government now and it has been since Black Wednesday.

[Leftbehind]

The main reason why the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010 despite a large popular vote lead is the fact that a lot of constituencies that once formed part of their automatic total have been voting LibDem since 1997 or so.

Won't that change once the LibDems get destroyed in 2015? If they stay around 10% in the polls, there's like 25-40 guaranteed seats for the Tories.

The amount of Liberal seats that'd fall to the Tories is massively outnumbered by the Tory-Labour marginals in which Labour would gain, since the Liberal defections mostly transfer to them. Even if and when the Liberals 'get out of the way' for the Tories, there are other important factors that led to a large lead in vote share but without the seats for it - with differential turnout being one (ie Tory safe seat turning out in hordes in comparison to safe Labour seat, but with the net result being a seat apiece).

[bore]

We can't really know how big a problem UKIP are going to be until the actual election, especially after all the phantom surges recently - and it wouldn't surprise to see a swift fall in their vote if it does become clear they cost the tories a majority.

[MrMittens]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9687338/Big-task-ahead-for-Lynton-Crosby.html

Crosby returns!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-20403439

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[MrMittens]

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-20403439

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Hah.

[minionofmidas]

This is clearly Antiwelsh racism. They were impersonating Welshmen most of the time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

[politicus]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Sad. Seems the UK is getting more and more intolerant all the time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Sad. Seems the UK is getting more and more intolerant all the time.

To be fair, UKIP doesn't have the best record on racism, but they're not exactly the BNP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With stories like this it's generally better to wait a little while before passing either comment or judgment...

[morgieb]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Hahahaha. That's a joke.

[DC Al Fine]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Link?

[You kip if you want to...]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Link?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9700001/Foster-parents-stigmatised-and-slandered-for-being-members-of-Ukip.html

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour's come out against the UKIP thing.
https://twitter.com/labourpress/status/272258241508032512

[Vote UKIP!]

This incident has been rather disgusting.

[DC Al Fine]

Rotherham council's taken away three children from their foster parents because they were members of UKIP and that signals "racism".

hmm....

Link?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9700001/Foster-parents-stigmatised-and-slandered-for-being-members-of-Ukip.html

Thanks. This is chilling albeit minor incident. More and more of these incidents seem to be cropping up in the UK lately.

[freefair]

Horrific. UKIP are a very right wing party, ofc, but within the bounds of normality- not far right at all. Gove is right, this is indefensible, and Rotherham Council have had the PR armageddon they so thoroughly deserve for his act of totalitarian insanity. Hopefully the couple get their foster kids back- they sound like lovely people (ex Labour people too!). I hope  this really really badly affects the by election result for the Labour candidiate. I'd love to see UKIP get a seatm or see them top 30% and shave the Labour vote to the bone (ie sub 35%). Unlikely, but it would be wonderful. As if Rotherham CLP hadn't already shamed themselves with McShane.

[minionofmidas]

Oh wow. That is hilarious. Hilariously stupid on account of the officer in question, that is.

[Vote UKIP!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This after they had posted a Tory memo calling for a Tory-UKIP pact.

http://thepactreport.wordpress.com/

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9703678/Exclusive-Eight-Tory-MPs-in-talks-about-defecting-to-Ukip.html

[Vote UKIP!]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9703678/Exclusive-Eight-Tory-MPs-in-talks-about-defecting-to-Ukip.html

Between the disgusting Rotherham scandal, the PM's remarks, the Tory-UKIP alliance memo, and now 8 prospective parliamentary defectors, I would say Nigel has had a very good week.

[Phony Moderate]

The long-lasting rumours about Cyril Smith have been confirmed.