FL: Mason-Dixon: Romney over Obama by 4, others trail the President

[Gustaf]

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.

Yup.

At this point in 2008, the polls were even bleaker for Obama. Take a look here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

I think that will change after the conventions, as more Democrats learn about reckless corporate crook and tax evader Mitt Romney and then Obama will get close to 90% of them in the end. The state will be extremely close, like in most elections.

2000 was an exception. Florida isn't really extremely close. It has a Republican lean and if anything seems to be moving in that direction. If the race is competitive I'd definitely expect Florida to go Republican (especially if it's Romney v Obama).

[Gustaf]

MD tends too be a bit (R) friendly, let's be honest. That said, Romney having a slight lead at the moment isn't too hard to believe considering he's all over the air right now.

Yup.

At this point in 2008, the polls were even bleaker for Obama. Take a look here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

And the polls seem to vary widely about how much support Romney would get among Democrats: Quinnipiac says only 6%, Mason-Dixon and Suffolk say 15-17%.

I think that will change after the conventions, as more Democrats learn about reckless corporate crook and tax evader Mitt Romney and then Obama will get close to 90% of them in the end. The state will be extremely close, like in most elections.

2000 was an exception. Florida isn't really extremely close. It has a Republican lean and if anything seems to be moving in that direction. If the race is competitive I'd definitely expect Florida to go Republican (especially if it's Romney v Obama).

It depends if the "trend" towards the Republicans continues in the coming election. If Obama wins by about 5% nationally, FL could still be extremely close with a slight Obama win. I would say that if Obama wins by 3 nationally, it could start tipping to Mitt Romney. But there are too many variables leading up to the election, that could change the "swings" and "trends".

I pretty much always talk in terms of 50-50 race though. Of course any state can be close if the national vote is enough of a landslide.