When will be the next "wave" elections?

[tpfkaw]

I'll define a "wave" as taking at least 30 house seats (and control of the chamber, if not already held, so something like 1980 wouldn't count, but 1974 would), while simultaneously gaining seats in the Senate.

I'm going to predict 2016 for the Democrats followed by 2018 for the Republicans.

[Donerail]

I'lll say 2012 will see a GOP Senate/House, 2014 the same, 2016 Dem both chambers, 2018 Republican House/Dem Senate, etc, etc, etc.

[freepcrusher]

I see a wave meaning gaining at least 50 house seats. With that said, I think its possible sometime late in the next cycle.

[Mr.Phips]

2014 if Romney wins. 

[Miles]

2014 if Romney wins. 

I think this would be most likely.

Otherwise, possibly in 2018 if a Republican succeeds Obama.

[morgieb]

Due to the sheer volume of Senate seats they need to defend, there'll be big changes to the Senate in 2014 and 2016, but it's unclear what they mean for the house.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We tend to see wave elections every six to eight years. With that as a guide, 2018 or 2020.

[Torie]

If Mittens is as facile handling economic issues, as Bush was in handling wars, 2014.  Yes, I know, I know, an assumption is imbedded in there. Sue me! 

[Del Tachi]

2014 may be good for Dems in the House, but it's next to impossible for them to make gains in the Senate. 

I say that if Romney is elected in 2012 and is re-elected in 2016, a Dem wave is possible in 2018 (a la 2006).

If Obama is re-elected, then 2014 has potential to be another GOP-wave year with a whole basketfull of Senate seats to pick-up. 

[Mr.Phips]

2014 may be good for Dems in the House, but it's next to impossible for them to make gains in the Senate. 

I say that if Romney is elected in 2012 and is re-elected in 2016, a Dem wave is possible in 2018 (a la 2006).

If Obama is re-elected, then 2014 has potential to be another GOP-wave year with a whole basketfull of Senate seats to pick-up. 

The fact that Republicans will likely control the House will mitigate the wave against Democrats in 2014. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2014: Obama reelected and the economy is roaring at a 5% clip

In the Senate Dems flip KY,GA, and ME and GOP wins SD.

[Dan the Roman]

 
If Romney Wins

2013: Democrats Win VA Governorship and Christie loses to a 2nd tier candidate in a major upset(he will suffer more than most from an unpopular Romney)

2014: Democrats make house gains but the real massacre is in the states. Democrats pick up governorships in South Carolina, Michigan, Ohio(every statewide office), Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and in upsets hold Illinois and Arkansas.

[Indy Texas]

If Romney Wins

2013: Democrats Win VA Governorship and Christie loses to a 2nd tier candidate in a major upset(he will suffer more than most from an unpopular Romney)

2014: Democrats make house gains but the real massacre is in the states. Democrats pick up governorships in South Carolina, Michigan, Ohio(every statewide office), Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and in upsets hold Illinois and Arkansas.

A lot of the governors elected in 2010 will not be re-elected no matter who is in the White House.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Romney Wins

2013: Democrats Win VA Governorship and Christie loses to a 2nd tier candidate in a major upset(he will suffer more than most from an unpopular Romney)

2014: Democrats make house gains but the real massacre is in the states. Democrats pick up governorships in South Carolina, Michigan, Ohio(every statewide office), Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and in upsets hold Illinois and Arkansas.

A lot of the governors elected in 2010 will not be re-elected no matter who is in the White House.

Rick Scott, Tom Corbett, Nikki Haley, and John Kasich are probably going to lose in 2014 no matter what. Ironically, Scott Walker and Jan Brewer, the two most nationally controversial governors, are probably safe due to Tea Party support, unless Romney wins narrowly and quickly becomes unpopular (which is likely).

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Nikki Haley won't be losing in 2014. The Tea Party has her back. The other three will be close regardless who wins.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Nikki Haley won't be losing in 2014. The Tea Party has her back. The other three will be close regardless who wins.

Haley might actually be in more danger in the Republican Primary than in the General Election. The Tea Party isn't invincible, and she only won by 5 points in a Republican wave year. And that was before she was scandal-tainted. Any governor with an approval rating in the 30s is unlikely to be reelected, no matter how popular they are with the base.

[phk]

We tend to see wave elections every six to eight years. With that as a guide, 2018 or 2020.

Every election since 2006 has been a wave.

[timothyinMD]

2014: Obama reelected and the economy is roaring at a 5% clip

In the Senate Dems flip KY,GA, and ME and GOP wins SD.

Laughable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well ME and SD should go very easily to their respective parties next time.