AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

52.79 to 44.41 with 22% in at AZ SoS.

[Miles]

Kelly is getting 51% in Cochise; he got 55% there in 2010.

[Miles]

Its a smaller county, but with all the votes in Kelly is getting 41% in Santa Cruz, down from 45% in 2010.

[Miles]

We're up to 31% reporting and Barber is still up 52.3-44.9.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Half in and Barber's ticking up back to 52.5.

[tmthforu94]

All that matters is November, though congrats to Democrats on winning a competitive special election.

[Brittain33]

All that matters is November, though congrats to Democrats on winning a competitive special election.

Not to be a sore winner (the circumstances here can only be described as unique), the only chance Kelly had of winning in November, when the district gets more Democratic and more Obama voters come out of the woodwork, would have been as an incumbent.

[Brittain33]

Looks like PPP wasn't so wrong after all.

They predicted 53-41-4, a 12 point margin. Barber's now winning by about 8 points. This is comparable to their performance in WI, I think.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looks like PPP wasn't so wrong after all.

They predicted 53-41-4, a 12 point margin. Barber's now winning by about 8 points. This is comparable to their performance in WI, I think.

Half of the vote is in and what's out is all in Pima, where Barber's a couple points stronger. I'd compass 53-44 or 54-44.

[DrScholl]

Looks like PPP wasn't so wrong after all.

They predicted 53-41-4, a 12 point margin. Barber's now winning by about 8 points. This is comparable to their performance in WI, I think.

That poll included 3% undecideds, they probably broke toward Kelly toward some degree. All in all, it was an accurate poll.

[Miles]

Another vote dump. With 66% Barber is holding steady at 53-45.

[Tender Branson]

1 reason why PPP had it a 12-point lead and now it's 8 points:

According to the internals of the poll, that Green guy gained more votes from Republicans than from Democrats. How likely is that ?

Assuming that this was unlikely and the Green guy - as usual with most 3rd party candidates - got overpolled by 2, the other 2% in reality went to Kelly and Kelly also picked up 2% from the undecideds.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Another vote dump and we're at 52-45. Huh. This was a little unexpected with just Pima left.

[Miles]

1 reason why PPP had it a 12-point lead and now it's 8 points:

According to the internals of the poll, that Green guy gained more votes from Republicans than from Democrats. How likely is that ?

Assuming that this was unlikely and the Green guy - as usual with most 3rd party candidates - got overpolled by 2, the other 2% in reality went to Kelly and Kelly also picked up 2% from the undecideds.

Good analysis, Tender.

Yes, PPP did skew a bit to the left all things considered, but it could hardly be considered a junk poll.

[Incipimus iterum]

Politico has called the Az 8 race for Ron Barber

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

52-45, seems to be final. Undecideds broke for Kelly for some strange reason and the Green overpolled.

[Meeker]

Lovely.

[smoltchanov]

Good! Hope Kelly's "political career" is over - he is a nut, pure and simple. In fact, if i would be a Republican - i would think about McSally, not Kelly - she is much better candidate

[Napoleon]

Expected, but still satisfying.

[krazen1211]

1 reason why PPP had it a 12-point lead and now it's 8 points:

According to the internals of the poll, that Green guy gained more votes from Republicans than from Democrats. How likely is that ?

Assuming that this was unlikely and the Green guy - as usual with most 3rd party candidates - got overpolled by 2, the other 2% in reality went to Kelly and Kelly also picked up 2% from the undecideds.

Good analysis, Tender.

Yes, PPP did skew a bit to the left all things considered, but it could hardly be considered a junk poll.

Only if you apply the standard 5 point adjustment.

[krazen1211]

Another vote dump and we're at 52-45. Huh. This was a little unexpected with just Pima left.

It's very amusing to see the canyon size window spinning from the lefties here! Heck, We Ask America was closer with Walker +12.

Apparently WAA put out an 'accurate poll'. How funny!

[Niemeyerite]

Another vote dump and we're at 52-45. Huh. This was a little unexpected with just Pima left.

It's very amusing to see the canyon size window spinning from the lefties here! Heck, We Ask America was closer with Walker +12.

Apparently WAA put out an 'accurate poll'. How funny!

LoL. We Ask America is a better poster than PPP. OK.

[krazen1211]

Another vote dump and we're at 52-45. Huh. This was a little unexpected with just Pima left.

It's very amusing to see the canyon size window spinning from the lefties here! Heck, We Ask America was closer with Walker +12.

Apparently WAA put out an 'accurate poll'. How funny!

LoL. We Ask America is a better poster than PPP. OK.

Not if you like liberal biased pollsters, no.

[Franzl]

I imagine the Democrats only won because of ACORN anyway, right Krazen? So PPP was likely off by much more than the "official" results suggest.

[krazen1211]

I imagine the Democrats only won because of ACORN anyway, right Krazen? So PPP was likely off by much more than the "official" results suggest.

No, they won because their candidate was more appealing to the voting public. Blaming ACORN or citizens united or a boogeyman rarely detracts from such facts.