AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[Torie]

Hoping McSally pulls it off.

Alas, I assume that Kelly has it in lockdown for the Pubs.  I think the odds are about 3-2 that the Dems will hold the seat. Even if Kelly won the special, he might have trouble holding the seat in November since it will be a couple of points more Dem, thanks to the "independent" commission drawing a Dem gerrymander.

[Torie]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

[Torie]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.

[Torie]

Yes, of course, its very brave of them to do so. It's certainly easier for accurate pollsters to poll less than more.

Of course, as a result of Amendment 1, Walker, and Kelly, PPP has now made Nate Silver's House Effect list.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/statistical-noise-in-election-polls/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

How much did PPP overstate Barber's margin?