AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[Miles]

R+1.

Congrats, krazen! I'm so excited for you!

[Miles]

PPP says:

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This is what I would expect from a Demcoratic hack firm

[Miles]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

[Miles]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.

Yes. But in terms of the constituent turnover, the new 2nd keeps about 90% of the old 8th.

[Miles]

I like your style

Way to change the subject by digging up old posts. I don't claim to be right about everything every single time. Anyway, this is not about NV-2, it's about AZ-8. PPP nailed the margins almost exactly for CA-36 and OR-1, both which were touted to be much closer than they turned out to be. There is too much accuracy to keep complaining the PPP is wrong all the time.

I would also add NY-26.

[Miles]

Rooting for Baber. Kelly is disgusting candidate. Hope to see his political "career" finished.

Likewise.

In terms of favorability, Jesse Kelly (37/59) is in a league with Joe Miller (36/59) and Christine O'Donnell (29/50).

[Miles]

This was posted on Facebook; I think its nice:

[Miles]

DKE says Barber is running 6 points ahead of Obama with the results that have trickled in so far.

[Miles]

According to the AZ SoS Barber is up 53-44 with 37/352 precincts in.

Not very far off from PPP; lets see if it holds...

[Miles]

So far, Barber is performing 7% better than Obama.

From DKE:

The counties are playing out as follows (Barber's vote share relative to Obama's):
Cochise: Barber +7.5
Pima: Barber +7.4
Pinal: Barber +4.5
Santa Cruz: Barber +6.3

[Miles]

Kelly is getting 51% in Cochise; he got 55% there in 2010.

[Miles]

Its a smaller county, but with all the votes in Kelly is getting 41% in Santa Cruz, down from 45% in 2010.

[Miles]

We're up to 31% reporting and Barber is still up 52.3-44.9.

[Miles]

Another vote dump. With 66% Barber is holding steady at 53-45.

[Miles]

1 reason why PPP had it a 12-point lead and now it's 8 points:

According to the internals of the poll, that Green guy gained more votes from Republicans than from Democrats. How likely is that ?

Assuming that this was unlikely and the Green guy - as usual with most 3rd party candidates - got overpolled by 2, the other 2% in reality went to Kelly and Kelly also picked up 2% from the undecideds.

Good analysis, Tender.

Yes, PPP did skew a bit to the left all things considered, but it could hardly be considered a junk poll.

[Miles]

Hey krazen!! We missed you here last night!

[Miles]

Ya know what krazen, you can attack PPP all you want, but you have to at least give it some credit because it was the only public pollster with the guts to go into the field there. At the very minimum, it showed that the race was Lean/Likely Barber.

[Miles]

Barber was sworn in today.