Did Obama just win Indiana?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Does anybody else think the "right-to-work" debacle unfolding in Indiana just sealed the deal in that state?

I cannot imagine why Indiana would go Republican now.

[krazen1211]

No.

[billbillerson]

No.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I guess you can always deceive yourselves into thinking the "right-to-work" garbage helps the GOP.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Does anybody else think the "right-to-work" debacle unfolding in Indiana just sealed the deal in that state?

I cannot imagine why Indiana would go Republican now.

But according to you no states can go Republican without voter fraud. Sadly with the way the country's going your probably going to be right soon enough.

[opebo]

I do agree that the extremist anti-worker rhetoric and policy from the GOP in the midwest is a net negative for them during the presidential election, and it certainly seals the deal in Wisconsin and makes Ohio that much easier for the President.  However I'm not convinced it will tip the scales in Indiana.  We'll see - but I do think the tendency to poo-poo bandit's point here is in error - this stuff isn't helpful for the bad guys.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I don't know if it sealed the deal, but I think Obama just became increasingly likely to keep the state, now.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Eh, it moves it to toss-up or tilt R, I'd say. I was inclined to think of it as between lean and likely R before.

[RodPresident]

Indiana isn't a state like Ohio, Michigan or Wisconsin. Before Obama, Democrats won it only 4 times in 20th Century (one with Republicans split and a favourite son at ticket (1912) and three gigantical landslides (2 FDR and LBJ). Then, to win Indiana again, Obama will have a hard time. Although with bad scenarium to Romney in Ohio, I can see state in a more tossup situation than expected. Obama can pull a win against Romney if there's a strong backlash between moderate Republicans after Lugar's teabaggering and right-to-work contaminates even more bad climate at state politics. If state goes competitive, I can see Democrats with good chances not only to take Senate chair, like taking Gubernatorial Mansion too.

[DrScholl]

I don't know how much it will effect the election, but it surely won't boost Republican chances like they believe it will. The attitude of invincibility is what could lose Indiana for Republicans, they seem to think they can't lose anywhere at all.

[tmthforu94]

If Obama wins IN, he will when it on Election Night, not 10 monts out.

[NHI]

No.

[Napoleon]

I don't know how much it will effect the election, but it surely won't boost Republican chances like they believe it will. The attitude of invincibility is what could lose Indiana for Republicans, they seem to think they can't lose anywhere at all.

There is a lot more at stake in 2012the than we realize. Both parties are going all in, in a way we've never before witnessed.

[TheGlobalizer]

Indiana isn't a particularly union state.  IIRC, they benefitted from largely non-union Japanese car manufacturers setting up shop there, as opposed to the surrounding union-friendly states.  IN is not WI and certainly not MI or OH.  (I do think SB 5 did a good job of killing OH for the GOP in 2012.)

[NVGonzalez]

At beast it makes the state very pink (or Atlas sky blue) but at this point I think Obama has better odds in AZ than IN.

[Eraserhead]

I still can't believe he won Indiana last time. That was pretty surreal when they called it for him.

[pbrower2a]

Indiana isn't a particularly union state.  IIRC, they benefitted from largely non-union Japanese car manufacturers setting up shop there, as opposed to the surrounding union-friendly states.  IN is not WI and certainly not MI or OH.  (I do think SB 5 did a good job of killing OH for the GOP in 2012.)

The tip-off is Ohio. Ohio has been decided by less than 5% of the last five Presidential elections. It goes wider than that only in electoral blowouts.

In 2008 Ohio went for Obama by about 4.5% and Indiana went for Obama by 1% in an election that verged on a blowout. President Obama was up by 6% (against Santorum), 7% (against Romney), and 10% (against Gingrich and Paul).

Indiana of course went unusually well for President Obama in 2008 for any Democrat because (1) he was from a neighboring state, (2) he got much media attention in Indiana, (3) he campaigned extensively in Indiana, and (4) the economic meltdown hit Indiana with a triple whammy in the RV industry with the evaporation of consumer credit, the sudden meltdown of consumer demand for big-ticket items (RVs), and  of course the disintegration of consumer confidence. Kerry lost Indiana by 20% while losing Ohio by 3%; Gore lost the state by 15% in the closest election in American history; Clinton lost the state twice by about 6% in decisive wins nationwide, both times winning all states surrounding Indiana; Carter lost it by 7% in a bare national win in 1976; JFK lost it by 10%.

It's hard to predict whether a state will go back to old ways or whether something is changing. Nothing except its past suggests that Indiana is a solid R state. The same can be said about Virginia, and Virginia is understood to be a swing state.  

Unions are much of the core support of the Democratic Party in Indiana,  and they will be going after any state legislator who voted for the Right-to-Work (for much less) legislation. The state legislature so gerrymandered the state's legislative districts that the Democrats could win statewide yet hold only two Congressional seats in the Indiana delegation. In the event that the Republicans tea-bag Dick Lugar into political retirement, a US Senate seat goes up for grabs.  

Question: will Indiana Democrats do what it takes to have any modicum of political success in Indiana?

If Obama wins IN, he will when it on Election Night, not 10 monts out.

 

True. And President Obama could still win the state's eleven electoral votes and lose all else.

[The Mikado]

Obama doesn't carry Indiana outside of a landslide of 2008 proportions or greater (Yes, I do consider 2008 a landslide).

[Scabr]

No.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Obama doesn't carry Indiana outside of a landslide of 2008 proportions or greater (Yes, I do consider 2008 a landslide).

2008 wasn't a landslide. If you want to talk landslide try 1984 or 1932. Silent Joe will lose badly to either Lugar (who will be tea partied) or Mourdock. If it's Romney then Indiana will be up for grabs because Evangelicals aren't quite liking the idea of voting for a Morman.