Andalusia 2012

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What would you good folks like to know?

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Why is Rajoy's government experiencing a small bounce over their 2011 election results? Is its popularity waning? Can the IU or PSOE hope to pick up ground at their expense before the election or is it most most likely a lock for the PP?

1. It's hard for me to judge because I dislike him, but it seems to be a mix of (a) honeymoon, (b) discredited opposition doesn't have its leader yet and (c) the initial response to the announce of the measures has been surprisingly positive. An El Pais poll showed that stuff like cutting subsidies for political parties/unions by 20%, re-establish a tax credit for buying a house, 'revalue' pensions by 1% (revalorizar las pensiones) and spending cuts were well received; the pay freeze for public employees had lukewarm reaction and predictably tax hikes and minimum wage freeze was unpopular. The general numbers indicate that the people expected these measures, and the government seems to be perceived as being competent and credible. But I think this won't last very long. It's not like the job numbers are miraculous.

Andalucian polls seem to be similar to pre 20-N polls, but there is a very slight move towards the PSOE from recent polls. The PP is hovering around majority threshold (55 seats) with 54-57 seats against 44-47 for the PSOE. There has been a junk poll from Libertad Digital, an ultra-right news outfit which showed a narrow PP majority, a tracker poll by Cadpea showed that the gap had narrowed to around 9.5-10% instead of 15% over the summer. IU is a bit above its 2008 results (6 seats) and there is the chance that UPyD and the regionalists could make it in. If the PP wins a majority, which I think is not as likely as predicted, than the PSOE sucks balls.

For more general stuff, my blog's Guide is still up and there's a profile of Andalusia in there.

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Also, FAC just announced snap elections in Asturias after the Parliament rejected his budget something.

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42-39 would be a good result for the PSOE, given that it was trailing by 8-10 if not more in the run-up to the election. Clearly something is wrong when the PSOE losing Andalusia by only 3 points is considered a moral victory... though they did lose there by 9 on 20-N.

BTW, there was also an election in Asturias today after Alvarez-Cascos' minority FAC government collapsed when the PP decided to stop backing him. Early results sez
PSOE 16
FAC 11
PP 10
IU 8 (!)

If it holds - it probably won't - it would mean +1 for PS, nc for PP, +4 for IU and -5 for FAC.

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Andalucia, 44.3% reporting
PSOE 41.3% > 51
PP 38.2% > 48
IULV-CA 11.8% > 10

Asturias, 65.7% reporting
PSOE 32.7% > 16
FAC 24% > 12
PP 20.7% > 10
IU 14.7% > 6
UPyD 3.8% > 1

Tough to see a PP majority in Andalusia on these numbers.

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Andalusia, 65% reporting
PSOE 49
PP 48
IULV 12

Asturias, 81% reporting
PSOE 16
FAC 13
PP 10
IU 6
UPyD 1

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Andalusia, 73% reporting
PP 50
PSOE 47
IULV 12

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Apparently, PSOE won one seat from FAC with postal votes.

Which gives a 22-22 tie between the two blocs, with Rosa Diez's fanclub holding the decisive vote. It is always hard to know whuch way UPyD will go, but the PSOE should have an added edge by virtue of being the largest party by a mile. Plus Asturias doesn't have any issues of regionalism and so forth to catter to.

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Well, yeah, Cascos is a retard and a jerk, but I think the PP has come around to the idea of backing him in a right-wing coalition.

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What kind of things? Seems generally straightforward.

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What kind of things? Seems generally straightforward.

You know, generally. Green is Commie, right?

In general:
Large cities (provincial capitals) tend to be more right-wing than rural areas, largely because landowners and senoritos tended to live/flee to the cities to live their cultured affluent lifestyle or to prevent getting killed by their serfs. Other non-capital large cities, including Jerez de la Frontera (which is in wine country), fairly industrial Algeciras, La Linea, El Ejido and Antequera voted PP. For obvious reasons, coastal communities such as Marbella in Granada and Malaga province are solidly right-wing.

Rural areas are traditionally left-wing, with the exception of coastal Almeria (refer to an oldish thread in which I talked about the type of agriculture in Almeria). Inland Huelva has a big mining sector (Rio Tinto), while Sevilla's PSOE machine likely boosts PSOE strength a bit. Mountainous areas of Granada and Almeria also tend to be left-leaning.

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Marinaleda is also an anarcho-syndicalist/communalist cooperative village; hence why they vote IU.