Andalusia 2012

[Niemeyerite]

Sorry, people, I should have said something about this.

But, as usual, I was receiving calls and calling people, too. I love election nights here, and this was the most intense ever in my life. PSOE had a better than expected election night, a damn good one. We (PSOE+IU)were not expected to win in Andalucia, and it wasn't even close. The Left is recovering!!!!

I loved Javier Arenas' face. It's the 4th time he loses, he may commit suicide haha...

Oh, and we lost by 1 point, while polls predicted a 10 point margin. So, EPIC FAIL for pollsters.

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About Asturias, what can I Say? PSOE wins the popular vote, FAC beats PP, and the right has 23 'diputados' for 21 of the left (UPyD has one).

Buuuuuuuuuuut there's one thing that, surprisingly, TV hasn't talked about. The emigrant vote comes on Wednesday, and they almost always vote PSOE. So, I think it's possible that PSOE steals 1 congressperson from Cascos in 'Occidente'. Let's wait for Wednesday!

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Conclusion: a good night for PSOE. We were supposed to lose Andalucia and win Asturias as we did. A better night for IU (in Asturias they only have 1 more, but in Andalucia they doubled their representation).

[Niemeyerite]

Apparently, PSOE won one seat from FAC with postal votes.

Which gives a 22-22 tie between the two blocs, with Rosa Diez's fanclub holding the decisive vote. It is always hard to know whuch way UPyD will go, but the PSOE should have an added edge by virtue of being the largest party by a mile. Plus Asturias doesn't have any issues of regionalism and so forth to catter to.

Plus, it's not a given that PP and FAC will manage to vote for the same candidate (Cascos) in the Parliament of Asturias. Remember, Cascos always wants all the power for himself.

UPyD has a "dilemma" now:

- The party should let PSOE-IU take the government of Asturias. Why? Because their message has always been that the winner should be the head of government. That's why we have PP in cities like Getafe, Alcorcón or Alcalá de Henares.

- FAC voted with UPyD in order to let it form a group in Congress. UPyD had to represent >5% of the votes if they wanted to be a separated group in Congress... And Rosa got 4.92%, but FAC voted with them, so they got more than 5% together.
What does this mean? That UPyD could vote for Cascos in appreciation of what FAC did.

But, Javi will more than likely be the next President of Asturias!! A person that I've met personally (and I found him really sincere and intelligent).

[Niemeyerite]

Well, yeah, Cascos is a retard and a jerk, but I think the PP has come around to the idea of backing him in a right-wing coalition.

Now, it seems that it could be the other way: FAC supporting "Cherines" (PP's candidate). However, Javi Fernández (PSOE) will be the next President of Asturias, so it doesn't mind if FAC backs Cherines or Cherines backs FAC. UPyD won't vote with them.

[Niemeyerite]

That's a really pretty map; thanks for posting. Could someone who knows more about Spain than me explain things?

Big cities and coast ---> PP

Almeria = the new Murcia (heavily conservative)

Rural towns/villages saved Griñán.

Oh, and Marinaleda is easy to find in that map.

Thanks,

[Niemeyerite]

What are the other Commie-voting towns like? Also small rural places with Anarchist traditions?

Probably towns with a CUT-BAI or PCE mayor. Sanchez Gordillo, for example, is the mayor of Marinaleda since 1981 IIRC. And the village has became a communist stronghold (I actually like the way Sanchez Gordillo governs in Marinaleda, but I don't like him because he hates PSOE)

[Niemeyerite]

Marinaleda is also an anarcho-syndicalist/communalist cooperative village; hence why they vote IU.

Yes. Actually, PSOE is the conservative party there, winning always between 15 and 30% of the vote against Gordillo (little fat in English haha)

[Niemeyerite]

Hash, you have to change something in your blog. PSOE has 17 seats in the Asturian Parliament now, and FAC 12. So, it's a tie between the left (17 PSOE + 5 IU) and the right (12 FAC + 10 PP) with UPyD being decisive.

[Niemeyerite]

Still uncertain. I hope we don't need a 3rd election in a row...