Austrian Economic Forecast until 2013
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Author Topic: Austrian Economic Forecast until 2013  (Read 1765 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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« on: June 17, 2011, 02:55:58 PM »

Released by the Austrian National Bank today:

GDP growth:

2010: +2.2%
2011: +3.2%
2012: +2.3%
2013: +2.4%

Export growth:

2010: +10.4%
2011: +10.0%
2012: +  6.8%
2013: +  7.2%

Import growth:

2010: +8.3%
2011: +8.9%
2012: +6.0%
2013: +6.6%

Inflation:

2010: +1.7%
2011: +3.2%
2012: +2.1%
2013: +1.9%

Savings Quote:

2010:   9.2%
2011:   8.6%
2012:   9.4%
2013: 10.3%

Job Growth:

2010: +0.8%
2011: +1.7%
2012: +1.2%
2013: +1.2%

Unemployment Rate:

2010: 4.4%
2011: 4.3%
2012: 4.3%
2013: 4.1%

Budget Deficit:

2010: - 4.6%
2011: - 3.0%
2012: - 2.6%
2013: - 2.3%

Debt (Percentage of GDP):

2010: 72.3%
2011: 71.9%
2012: 71.8%
2013: 71.3%

http://www.oenb.at/de/presse_pub/aussendungen/2011/Copy_of_2010q1/pa20110617_oesterreichs_wirtschaft_laesst_die_krise_hinter_sich_ges_0_page.jsp#tcm:14-234087
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2011, 03:31:28 AM »

New budget figures are now out for May:

Outlays: 5.381 Bio. € (-3%)
Revenues: 7.020 Bio. € (+10%)
Surplus: 1.639 Bio. € (+93%)

Jan-May 2011:

Outlays: 29.252 Bio. € (+4%)
Revenues: 24.257 Bio. € (+10%)
Deficit: 4.995 Bio. € (-18%)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2011, 03:18:52 AM »

New job figures for July are out:

209.743 unemployed (-1% compared with July 2010)

Job growth: +76.000 (+2.2% compared with July 2010)

To put that into context, the US would need to create 2.8 Mio. jobs over the year to match Austria.

Unemployment rate according to Eurostat: 4.0% (lowest in the EU)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2011, 03:35:59 AM »

National unemployment rate in July (calculated without self-employed in the labor force):

5.6% (-0.2%)

By state:

3.3%  (-0.1%) Salzburg
3.6%  (-0.4%) Upper Austria
3.9%  (-0.1%) Tyrol
4.8%  (-1.0%) Vorarlberg
5.3%  (-0.5%) Styria
5.9%  (-0.3%) Lower Austria
6.0%  (-0.1%) Burgenland
6.4%  (-0.0%) Carinthia
8.4% (+0.4%) Vienna
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2011, 07:35:24 AM »

New budget numbers for November suggest that the 2011 deficit might drop below 3% already and be as low as 2.0-2.8%:

Jan-Nov 2011:

Outlays: 61,780 Bio. € (+8%)
Revenues: 57,180 Bio. € (+1%)
Deficit: 4,600 Bio. € (-44%)

That means the government deficit in the 11 months so far is down from 8,22 Bio. € to 4,60 Bio. €

Der Standard also reports that the deficit of the states and the towns/cities will drop from 3,5 Bio. € to 2,3 Bio. €.

The 4th important part of the Maastricht criteria will be Social Security Carriers, which will have a surplus of somewhere between 200 and 600 Mio. € (was +600 Mio. € last year).

So, we have:

Government: -4.6
States/Cities: -2.3
Social Security: +0.2-0.6

Total: 6.3-6.7 Bio. € deficit

GDP will be 302 Bio. € this year, so the deficit should be 2.1% to 2.2% ...

Last year, deficit was at 4.4% of GDP.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2011, 07:52:08 AM »

It looks like a 2.2 to 2.5% deficit for 2011 could lead to a 5th-place finish within the Eurozone.

Germany could be slightly better (I'm not aware of the latest deficit projections, but something like 1.5-2.0%).

And Estonia, Finland and Luxembourg will be better positioned. They could even have a surplus already.
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Seattle
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2011, 07:09:10 PM »

From all your posts, it looks like Austria is an extremely well run country. What's their key to this success?
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2011, 06:42:58 AM »

From all your posts, it looks like Austria is an extremely well run country. What's their key to this success?

I don't know much about Austria's economy, but from what I've read, it has a very strong labor movement and a publicly funded healthcare system.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2011, 08:35:25 AM »

From all your posts, it looks like Austria is an extremely well run country. What's their key to this success?

I don't know much about Austria's economy, but from what I've read, it has a very strong labor movement and a publicly funded healthcare system.

A low unemployment rate generally helps, because it's good for tax revenues.

Another thing is the economy, which has grown at a fast pace than the EU-average in recent years.

Another thing could be that the country only had a very moderate austerity package last year, which didn't impact the economy.

Health Care System is also quite efficient, as I posted above the Social Security Carriers mostly run a Maastricht surplus.

But there are still some things that could be done, like increasing the real pension entry ages to 60 and then 65. This would save a few Bio. € each year.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2011, 08:54:34 AM »

Here's an English article of what's ahead in the next months:

Debt limit negotiations continue

Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the People’s Party (ÖVP) keep discussing the debt brake.

The government coalition wants to turn the tool into a constitutional law. It needs the approval of at least one opposition party in parliament in the coming months to achieve this goal. SPÖ officials and representatives of the ÖVP started meeting after taking a comparably brief Christmas holiday. The Greens announced they would not gather for talks with SPÖ and ÖVP before the coalition sorted out their internal conflicts.

SPÖ and its coalition partner especially disagree about a tax on assets. The Social Democrats are in favour of a higher property tax and a new tax on assets while the ÖVP opposes such ideas. The party of Vice Chancellor Michael Spindelegger said the focus should be on reducing investments to firms close to the state like Federal Railways (ÖBB). It also suggested reforming the Austrian pension system. Spindelegger said people willing to work longer than they had to should be allowed to do so – and financially benefit in contrast to those who opted for early retirement.

The SPÖ reportedly also wanted higher taxes on alcohol while rumour has it that the ÖVP could give up its strict no-go policy to new taxes in case of mineral oil tax rates. Such a measure could be labelled as a carbon emission charge. It would guarantee initial effects on the state budget thanks to wide unwillingness in Austria to give up cars in favour of bicycles and public transport.

The Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ) suggested lowering the maximum tax rate by eight per cent to 42 per cent – an idea the SPÖ was not happy to hear of. The ÖVP signalised support for the suggestion. Freedom Party (FPÖ) leaders are expected to meet with ÖVP whip Karlheinz Kopf for talks in the coming days. Already this morning, SPÖ Chancellor Werner Faymann met with Spindelegger to discuss the government’s fiscal strategy for 2012.

Faymann and Spindelegger eventually agreed that the state’s budget must improve by two billion Euros in 2012. SPÖ Mayor Michael Häupl suggested setting up taxes to achieve 70 per cent of this sum. Faymann initially mentioned 1.5 billion Euros of needed savings before ÖVP Finance Minister Maria Fekter claimed that 2.8 billion Euros were necessary. The government now said two billion Euros were the envisaged sum. Another 800,000 Euros must be contributed by the country’s nine provinces. This decision could mean a reduction of road infrastructure investments and less spending on childcare projects in towns and cities.

SPÖ and ÖVP made clear they would keep fighting for a constitutional debt limit despite Moody’s recent confirmation of Austria’s top credit rating, AAA. The US American rating agency said Austria’s economic situation was solid thanks to the government’s intention of adding the debt brake to the constitution. Fekter said she intended to keep up her attempts to get the opposition onboard. The finance minister underlined that Austria had to pay higher and higher interest rates to cover its debts. The budget deficit rose as well during the crisis.

Former SPÖ Chancellor Franz Vranitzky said the government should focus on creating a complete package of fiscal measures instead of releasing news about their individual tax and austerity plans. Such tactics led to nothing but getting the coalition partner to say no, Vranitzky told Die Presse today. The former SPÖ chairman also warned about spending less on the education sector and research initiatives.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2011-12-27/9816/Debt_limit_negotiations_continue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2011, 09:00:35 AM »

Another 800,000 Euros must be contributed by the country’s nine provinces.

Article fail: make that 800 Mio. €
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Franzl
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« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2011, 12:45:42 PM »

Gruß aus Landeck in Tirol. (Doesn't fit this thread, but yeah Smiley)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2011, 01:07:58 PM »

Gruß aus Landeck in Tirol. (Doesn't fit this thread, but yeah Smiley)

Danke. Was machstn da ? Urlaub bzw. Schifahren ?
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Franzl
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« Reply #13 on: December 29, 2011, 08:07:01 AM »

Gruß aus Landeck in Tirol. (Doesn't fit this thread, but yeah Smiley)

Danke. Was machstn da ? Urlaub bzw. Schifahren ?

Genau. Die Schneeverhältnisse in meinem normalen Wintersportgebiet in Bayern sind erbärmlich. War gestern in St. Anton, werde auch das Skigebiet Serfaus noch ausprobieren.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #14 on: December 29, 2011, 08:59:49 AM »

Gruß aus Landeck in Tirol. (Doesn't fit this thread, but yeah Smiley)

Danke. Was machstn da ? Urlaub bzw. Schifahren ?

Genau. Die Schneeverhältnisse in meinem normalen Wintersportgebiet in Bayern sind erbärmlich. War gestern in St. Anton, werde auch das Skigebiet Serfaus noch ausprobieren.

Ahh, ich war bisher nur in Kitzbühel schifahren (wär ja auch ziemlich blöd für einen Salzburger extra nach Tirol zu fahren um dort teurer schizufahren Tongue).

Man kann vom Skigebiet Mittersill/Hollersbach mit der 3-S-Bahn direkt nach Kitzbühel rüberfahren. Ziemlich geil das Teil (geht 400m über dem Graben drüber).

Wie siehts denn mit dem Schnee aus wo du bist ? Sollten etwa 2m sein, oder ? Auf jeden Fall mehr wie bei uns (50cm bis 1m).

PS: Bleibt ihr auch über Sylvester dort ?
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Franzl
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« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2011, 01:19:44 PM »

Bis zum 1.1. sind wir hier, ja.

Ich bin gar nicht begeistert von der Wetterprognose hier für die nächsten Tage...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2011, 11:03:54 AM »

Q3 debt data was released today:

214,115 Bio. € (71.6% of GDP)

this is down from 72.1% in Q2 and 71.9% in Q3 of 2010.

http://www.statistik.at/web_de/presse/060755
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2011, 03:25:41 AM »

Gruß aus Landeck in Tirol. (Doesn't fit this thread, but yeah Smiley)

Danke. Was machstn da ? Urlaub bzw. Schifahren ?

Genau. Die Schneeverhältnisse in meinem normalen Wintersportgebiet in Bayern sind erbärmlich. War gestern in St. Anton, werde auch das Skigebiet Serfaus noch ausprobieren.

Maybe you can go to Lech am Arlberg as well. Chancellor Faymann is on vacation there and skiing. Maybe you meet him ... Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2012, 04:11:37 AM »

New budget numbers for November suggest that the 2011 deficit might drop below 3% already and be as low as 2.0-2.8%:

Jan-Nov 2011:

Outlays: 61,780 Bio. € (+8%)
Revenues: 57,180 Bio. € (+1%)
Deficit: 4,600 Bio. € (-44%)

That means the government deficit in the 11 months so far is down from 8,22 Bio. € to 4,60 Bio. €

Der Standard also reports that the deficit of the states and the towns/cities will drop from 3,5 Bio. € to 2,3 Bio. €.

The 4th important part of the Maastricht criteria will be Social Security Carriers, which will have a surplus of somewhere between 200 and 600 Mio. € (was +600 Mio. € last year).

So, we have:

Government: -4.6
States/Cities: -2.3
Social Security: +0.2-0.6


Total: 6.3-6.7 Bio. € deficit

GDP will be 302 Bio. € this year, so the deficit should be 2.1% to 2.2% ...

Last year, deficit was at 4.4% of GDP.

It turned out that my calculation was slightly off, because there were some factors that I didn't know:

Quote
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This was pretty much correct:

Government: -4.6
States/Cities: -2.3
Social Security: +0.2-0.6

It turned out to be:

Government: -4.4
States/Cities: -2.1
Social Security: +0.3

But there was an additional 3.9 Bio. € of Maastricht debt that was not found in the monthly budget reports, but had to be added by the Dept. of Finance because of EU criterias (it mostly includes state financing, state rail investments for the ÖBB, and bailout money for the Hypo bank that Eurostat said had to be put into the 2011 budget rather than the 2010 budget - therefore the 2010 deficit was revised down from 4.6% to 4.4%)

Anyway, with the coming tax and savings package to be unveiled next month (budget consolidation measures of 2 Bio. € annually until 2016), the path to a balanced budget will now be like this:



The blue line indicates the projected deficits up to 2016, if the tax & savings plan gets implemented next month.

The red line indicates what the deficits would look like without the tax & savings plan.

So, if the economy turns out not too be too bad in the next 5 years, Austria will have a balanced budget by 2016/2017 and about 70-75% debt as a percentage of GDP.
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